National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@WhataProcess I understand what you mean but the 7-9 point differences primarily come from the states that have the same semi-finalist cutoff as the commended cutoff. I think that the SM cutoff cannot be lower than the commended score so if top 1% is lower than commended in a state, the NM is the commended cutoff score. Probably if they truly assessed the top 1% in those states, the difference would not have been as high.

NMSF Essay Prompt is

STUDENT ESSAY: To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space below.

The space is limited, but was able to accept a 650 word essay previously written. Verify all text in the final pdf since some areas such as the ACTIVITIES section truncated text in the pdf file.

The application does NOT allow you to save the pdf that is viewable before submittal, but a copy was emailed to the parent after the application was submitted.

Congratulations. Hope accomplishment lightens the load and brightens the way. D Missed from Utah with 212 but already set( through soccer) on university that does not give money for just about anything (sports academics etc)…

I find WA cutoff of 221 to be very surprising. Moreover, Compass blog changed the initial cutoff from 220 to 221. They said their primary source made a mistake. Therefore, other mistakes could happen, although very unlikely.

@kikidee9 You are right, there hasn’t been much reported about NC. If it weren’t for Iceesky I’d probably still be waiting. My son has a 223 SI so I really just wanted confirmation. Looks like his school is planning on waiting until Sept 14 because they have not advised him yet.

For TN - I might have misread my table when I thought it was surprisingly high. My twisted concordances was projecting 216. So 218 is high - but not crazy. (For some reason I thought my projection was 212.)

So I take back my comment that I was suspicious of TN. Sorry if I gave anyone false hope…

What do you think about MN, @thshadow? I apologize if this has already been discussed -haven’t been able to follow for the past several hours!

My only ā€œthinkingā€ - if you want to call it that - is based on the cutoffs projected here:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19542036/#Comment_19542036

That method projected MN at 217. I guess Art has it at 219. I haven’t gone through the whole list, but I think maybe about half of the states in my projection are exactly right, and most of the rest are within a point. I think there are a few that came in couple points higher - at least MN and TN.

Note that those projections were trying to figure out how to concord last year’s cutoff with the new PSAT format. Even if the concordance is correct, it would be like trying to guess this year’s cutoff by using last year’s cutoff. Which (in other years) is typically accurate - but I imagine there are always a couple of states that move more than 1 point. I haven’t really looked at past data in depth.

Along those lines - last year MN had a 214 cutoff. Other states with a 214 cutoff last year are FL, Hawaii, and Vermont. This year, Art shows 217, 217, and 215. Because my method is just a concordance table, it projected 217 for all 4 of those states. Assuming Art is correct, compared to FL/HI, MN got 2 points tougher, and VT got 2 points easier.

Edited to add - if you’re in MN @Mamelot and have a 217 or 218, and 219 turns out to be right - I’m sorry… :frowning:

@thshadow D had a 220 so she’s clear but we know many who will be hurting when they see that number.

Thank you for your analysis. We had been expecting 216 so are still a bit shocked.

Did anyone besides me get reprimanded by the ā€œsuper moderatorā€ for mentioning the name of the very nice and helpful man who runs the website whose name may not be mentioned ? :slight_smile:

I love that the guy whose name rhymes with cart has achieved Voldemort status as far as his name goes…

Confirm 221 in MN!

Also crazy that Utah had the biggest change…glad D did well enough to make the cut. Can’t wait for all the analysis as to why. The hysterical thing is that my D couldn’t care less, while I have been disturbingly obsessed waiting for this. I think it is because I had zero clue what it was 25 years ago, and I certainly didn’t prepare or take it seriously. I didn’t even understand what I had missed when I made commended. My parents were clueless. I am eternally grateful to all the folks on this board who have educated me in so many areas. I

"Did anyone besides me get reprimanded by the ā€œsuper moderatorā€ for mentioning the name of the very nice and helpful man who runs the website whose name may not be mentioned ? "

Join the club, @PicoLA!

He who shall not be mentioned needs a new ā€œcodeā€ name. I propose smART.

In case anyone didn’t know, all official cutoffs are out on Compass Prep.

I missed by 1 point. A shame because I need the scholarships, but I had already made a ā€œPlan Bā€ college list, in caseI could not rely on NMF. I am totally fine going to my state school anyways.

Oh, and congrats to everyone who did make it! I have to ill feelings towards the lower-cutoff states :slight_smile:

Thanks to Art for the cutoff information. Made it in MD with 222

Whoops, I meant ā€œnoā€ ill feelings towards the lower-cutoff states

Doesn’t have much to do with NMSF cutoffs, but this thread reached 1 million views!

ok… I am late to the discussion… what is the national commended score? is it 209? It that a final number, or does it come out later?