National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

^^ that is hilarious. =))

This is my last post on this thread. I want to thank all of you for your terrific insights, and encouragement throughout this long trek. S missed by three points (SI 218 – 720 RW, 740 M; Virginia at 221) but there’s solace that, even if he had achieved a perfect math score, he still would have fallen one point short. Our hope is that he’ll end up at his top college choice, regardless. All the best to everyone! :slight_smile:

@VABogart Thanks for sharing the journey. So sorry your S missed by those few points. Hope he gets some great scholarship offers anyway from the colleges he was looking at.

Thanks to everyone who has participated in this thread - would not be surprised if it turns out to be somewhat help for families starting on the PSAT / NM journey this school year. I have a DS18 too and I know I learned a lot that will be relevant for him too. All the best.

@CA1543, I learn so much from this thread. @3scoutsmom has S18 also.
Your S18 and her S18 out to be knee deep and prep.
I love rooting for all the kiddos and parents!

So this might be the wrong thread to ask this, but how many semifinalists become finalists? I’ve heard 15,000 out of 16,000 become finalists, but that number sounds too high.

@cdhxyx it’s about 90% or so

@cdhxyx It’s presented as 15,000 out of 16,000 by NMSC but those are approximations.

In 2015 (last annual report available) 16,307 were sf’s and 15,121 of those were selected as Finalists. So that’s about 93%. But that percentage will probably vary a bit from year to year

My understanding is the next step is more does your resume match your score. Write a good essay. Have a strong GPA. Get a conforming SAT score. There isn’t a limit to the number of slots.

Right. And try not to be an axe-murderer. Those applying only to schools that do not give merit scholarships may choose not to complete the process. But the large majority move on to finalist status.

really not following this… PSAT scaores for class of 2017 are out of 1500, so why so many 221?

1520 is the maximum total score which corresponds to a 228. The cutoffs were high because the range is compressed (209 - 228 vs. 202 - 240 in previous years) and factors like no penalty for wrong answers had a significant impact. But didn’t all the 221 states decline from their previous cutoffs? MD and VA were at -1, and CA -2. Is there a state that increased to 221 from a lower cutoff? The cross-over point seemed to be at 220.

Perhaps there are are a lot of other 221’s out there but there are a LOT more at 214 -218.

1520 is the max scaled score. If you drop the zero for each section reading, writing, and math then double you get the selection index which had a max selection index of 228. I think the max was 240 before 2016.

It’s only the selection index that matters, @Charlotte44

I was also incarcerated by a very nice super moderator for my praise of a really nice person known as smArt for his hard work in helping many, many parents and students trying to figure-out this year’s NM scoring. Along with Mamelot, I’m in the hoosegow until September 14 - - the official release date of the semifinalists. I’m rather enjoying the bread crust and stale water provided by the really nice moderators here in CC jail.

FYI…from the TOS:

You’re already ā€œin the holeā€ā€¦you might want to stop digging. :smiley:

Could anybody direct me to where the score cutoffs are found? Thank you :slight_smile:

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1914817-class-of-2017-nmsf-nmf-qualifying-scores.html#latest

Semifinalist results were released for our school today, California (9/6/2016)

Still waiting for official confirmation. :smiley: