National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

After some additional math and stats analysis, I am inclined to think that NMSC is essentially [or complete] nonsense given these state-specific cutoffs and the %ile data they shared. What if takers continuously attain higher and higher scores with time (quite plausible) and the total test taker pool is relatively stable (also plausible)? It may very well be the case that in the very near future (about 2 years) in the highest cutoff states one can only be a SF if he/she gets perfect scores on all 3 sections (i.e. up to 2 errors max total with 0 errors on one of the sections); as it is currently, this number stands at 5 total errors in those states already.

Unless the make the PSAT and SAT harder @janara

@janara I’m not sure about your error numbers, though my son took the late October test, which was apparently harder than the mid-October test. I just checked, and he got a 224 SI while missing 3 on reading and writing combined and 3 wrong on math (plus one omitted, though he thinks that might have been bubbling too light).

I would agree that there are definitely test design problems with the new PSAT. There should be more spread at the top end as with the old PSAT. Unfortunately, the College Board is designing the test for their purposes (get more kids to that the SAT multiple times) and not for purposes aligned with the National Merit Scholarship Corporation’s needs.

Ynotgo: What were the scores on each section? Seems 37.5 M (4 errors), 37 R (2 errors), 37 W (1 error; can be as low as 35 if all 3 errors were in W) – that’s 223. All these data are readily available at: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf.

AFAIK [and logically], there should not/cannot be “harder” or “easier” test from one date to another – if that were the case too, then this whole scoring system is almost a complete farce.

@Ynotgo There is a huge difference in penalty between the reading section and the writing (English). In the English section - 1 wrong is 1 point off which = 2 SI points. 2 x = 4 SI points. The curve is REALLY harsh on that section.

My son was finally notified by his GC this afternoon. GC said the letter just got to him today. Anyway DS is relieved he didn’t have to track the letter down himself.

Totally agree that this new test doesn’t differentiate among the top scorers very well at all. However, it’s important to realize that the reason the top scoring states had a 221 or 222 cut-off is NOT because of some pre-determined high number that discriminates against CA or MA or NJ but because a whole lot of kids in those states only missed a couple of questions on the entire test. Had they missed more, the cutoff would have been lower. There’s definitely going to be less room for error at the very top regardless of old or new test. Missing the first 6 questions is going to result in a more significant drop than missing the next 6, but isn’t that basically true for any curved test?

@janara Haven’t looked at that in a long time. Here it is: 38 reading (1 error), 37 writing (2 errors), 37.0 math (4 errors/omits)

My son got a 37 with one error on writing. The curve must have been harsher - he had the Wednesday sitting. That 1 silly mistake cost him NMSF. He got a 221 and needed a 222.

And yes, tests DO differ in difficulty from administration to administration. (Edit: Re #6863). It’s inadvertent but it happens which is why CB adjusts those scales accordingly. My D17 took the mid-month test and got 4 wrong on R/W and then 4 on math and got a 220. From post #6862 it sounds to me like that same -8 would have resulted in a slightly higher scaled score had she taken the later test. However, most likely she would NOT have scored a -8 on that later test but a -10 or something . . . because it was more difficult.

@suzyQ7 is correct about the Wed. test being harsh on the writing scale because my kid missed 2 and got a 36. @Ynotgo’s kid missed 2 later in the month and got a 37.

But the harsh scale means it was an easier test, of course. The problem with making it THAT easy is like @suzyQ7 is saying - one dumb mistake can keep you from getting NMSF. It’s a poorly designed test where you get creamed for missing 1 on the entire section.

I have a question. My daughter is a senior, but took a couple of college classes at a Summer College for High School Students program and got 6 credit hours. Do I have to request a transcript from the college to show those 2 courses even though she is still in high school?

Does anybody know where to put in the 0085 NMSC code in the online form for sending SAT scores from an SAT that was taken previously? The form asks for the name of the college or scholarship, and location, but we want to use the code to make sure it is done right.

@BunnyBlue doesn’t the code just pull up the name of the college or scholarship company? I think so. Anyway, just click on “Send additional score reports” (or whatever it says) then “More Search Options”. When you do that the code box should appear.

@Tschoonover44 I’d arrange to send it just to be on the safe side. College coursework seems to be included in the list of things they want to see. You might check with your school to find out whether you forward transcripts to them for inclusion or do they ask for transcripts from the college summer program. It’s the high school that will be completing your D’s application and submitting everything so perhaps they can arrange to get the transcripts directly from the college.

Here is what the set of instructions says:

“Have a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college course work taken. Your school must provide a complete record of high school courses you have taken, grades earned, and course work you will take in grade 12. The school should also notify National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) of any noticeable decline in your academic performance during the current year. If you are now in college, high academic performance must continue and must be documented by an official transcript of your record (see instructions on page 2 of this document).”

Thank you, @JBStillFlying !! It worked. I clicked “More Search Options” and saw the box for entering the code, just as you said. The listing that came up was the same one I got before by putting “National Merit Scholarship Corporation” in the search box, so I guess it wasn’t necessary to use the code, but I feel better not having those nagging doubts. :slight_smile:

@Tschoonover44 - I think you posted in the wrong forum, but the answer to your question depends on your kid’s HS. At D17’s, yes, we had to order transcripts from the two colleges where D had taken for-credit courses over the past two summers. They are not counted towards her GPA, but, with previous authorization, we were able to get them to count towards her graduation requirements. I ordered official transcripts directly from the schools to be sent to D’s GC and they, in turn, will send it to colleges as part of her application.

Actually, I haven’t seen the NMSF paperwork yet, but @Tschoonover44 may have a relevant question. Do dual-enrollment transcripts need to be sent to NM along with the HS transcript? What about college units on transcripts that don’t show up as dual-enrollment on the HS transcript?

It would be nice if just the HS transcript could be sent to NM. For example, we will have a total of 5 transcripts to send to colleges by the end of fall semester. The grades for all classes will be on the HS transcript, but only the course numbers not the course titles. To get course titles to the colleges, we will need to send the college transcripts. Two of those transcripts are $15 for each transcript sent.

P.S. I gave in and emailed an administrator at our HS. The principal plans to call the kids in and tell them they got NMSF on Monday.

@Tschoonover44 Similar to @lovethebard, my son has a transcript that needs to be sent in for a course which won’t count towards his graduation requirements but because the course could have counted towards a requirement as is a 5th year of an academic course, the school advised my son last week that he needs to bring it to the school so they could upload it to naviance along with his HS transcript. If the school uses Naviance, ask them to send it with the transcript. If this is for NMSF app, find out from your school how long you have to get the transcript(s) in. NMSF app deadline is 10/12 but they would like to transmit everything by 10/7 because the following week is the first EA app deadline for some college apps.

@Ynotgo The HS should reflect the course title on anything they are putting on their transcript. Hope they will change that for you and not put you through the unnecessary expense of ordering the transcripts.

@Ynotgo The instructions from NMSC include detail for those now enrolled full time in college. And then there is the “any college coursework taken” that I posted in #6874 above. There is no more information than that on the instructions that I can see. However, NMSC seems to be following the same standard as a college admissions dept. If you received credit, probably safe to make sure some record of that course makes its way to NMSC.

Not sure it’s necessary to order transcripts separately if the grade and info. show up on the HS transcript anyway (i.e. dual enrollment or PSEO) but the hs should be able to answer that question. Transcripts for stuff like credit-granting summer-college for high school students should definitely be ordered, if not by the high school then by the student or family with directions that it be sent to the HS for inclusion in the application. Colleges sometimes take a couple weeks to process these so expedition is probably necessary. Yes, it’s an expense. However, it’s petty cash compared to the potential $$$$'s available to NMF’s.

We had to go through this with an older child who took a variety of college-level art and design courses as well as a non-credit-granting summer precollege that issued grades - none of which showed up on her hs transcript (nor did the counselors even want a record of it). This wasn’t for NMSC but for college admissions. The schools and universities we checked with basically said if she’s taking a course at a college. So we just made sure they ALL got the record. It was a hassle and an expense but definitely worth it not to have to worry down the road when admissions and scholarship decisions were being made. Full disclosure buys peace of mind.