National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

I m in North TX, I know TAMS at UNT (Denton) and that’s the one I am talking about
TAMS - https://tams.unt.edu/

Does anyone know where to find the most recent list of Texas SFs by school? NMSC seems to hide that data.

@dallaspiano of the 372 NMSF’s last year from Houston, there were 45 from TAMS… so I guess there are 2 campuses, 38 from St. Johns and 41 from Clements. Clements has an academy and I think a lot of the 41 NMSF’s came from there.

@Speedy2019 I don’t think it’s out there. but I found some links houston, dallas, rio grande, so I’ll send the links later…Got to go pick up the kiddo:)

@Speedy2019 for houston.

http://www.houstonschoolsurvey.com/national-merit-scholars.html#.Vqp-dxGDDHg

I got some great info today from the GC at my daughter’s school. Game changing information!

  1. There are no state cutoffs because National Merit is a "national program"
  2. National Merit Scholarship Corp will send out the semifinalist invites in July
  3. Schools receive scores but not state reports
  4. My daughter's school receives scores but they just turn them over to students. No reports are compiled.
  5. And finally, my daughter's 222 "seems pretty good"

Fyi - this school had no NMSFs last year.

Glad I could share this helpful information with all of you. No thanks necessary - consider it my gift.

@HalfMoon22 a 216 is a really good SI for WI. Historically the cut-off has been like 207 - 210, correct? Seems to be some room there. You can try to concord it and find the range - then compare to the historical cut-offs to see how much room is left. I think that @thshadow equated a current 216 to a concorded minimum of 212 so things would probably REALLY have to move for your daughter to be in danger. That’s my take, at any rate.

Here’s another way to look at it: take the highest historical cut-off of 210, which was about the top of the 98th percentile (roughly). If you look at the page 11 percentiles and add a percent or so for the inflation, you get 213 (top of the 99th). Your daughter scored a 216. So again, she has room.

Good luck to her and well done!

@mnpapa29 Your GC information (other than 222 seems pretty good) goes directly against what is listed here http://www.nationalmerit.org/student_guide.pdf

@mnpapa29 you’ll need to stay on top of things with those GC’s. A 222 is a great score for MN which despite your cautious pessimism you KNOW to be the case. She’ll likely be the first NM at that school and will have to come back every year to give motivational speeches to the senior and junior classes. When that happens she should put in a plug for homeschooling! LOL.

@mnpapa29, I believe what you heard. Please provide more info. President Reagan used to say something to Russian - we trust you but we need to verify - especially no state cut off 8-} 8-}

@mnpapa29 “no state cutoffs” I think your GC probably got this wrong but if so, this of course would change everything.

@Mamelot Thanks! The really sweet part was that the GC was absolutely the kindest person I’ve talked to in a very long time - she just didn’t have a clue about, well, anything related to NMSF. And I just couldn’t contradict her. Hopefully you’ll have better luck with the GC at your child’s school. We need someone here who has a student attending Edina or Wayzata - schools with consistently high numbers of NMSFs who probably have GCs with a bit more knowledge.

And I am going to do my very best to remain pessimistic. Would rather be pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed. .

@dallaspiano 1869. Agreed fun fact: Reagan got his quote from Oliver Cromwell who said: “Have faith in God, but keep your powder (gunpowder) dry.” :-c

@Pickmen and others - YES, the GC was clearly not correct. My post was meant to be humorous.

@mnpapa29 A 222! Well done. For MN I would say you don’t even have to stick the champagne in the fridge. Open it now.

@Speedy2019, for North TX
http://dallas-area-schools.blogspot.com/2015/09/2016-national-merit-semifinalists.html

@Speedy2019, for Austin
https://www.austinisd.org/articles/national-merit-scholarship-program-recognizes-172-aisd-seniors-outstanding-academic

Papa, you wake me up - boring day at school
Trust but verify
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As6y5eI01XE

@mnpapa29 Yeah, not sure what’s going on with lack of information for this state. And our HS is less than helpful. D3’s counselor doesn’t even have voice mail working so I couldn’t leave a message - I spoke to one of the other counselors and she knew nothing - didn’t even have the documents in front of her. They are so busy just getting kids graduated and accepted to college that they just aren’t focused on this at the moment. Explaining the nuances between total score and SI would have been pointless.

I don’t think you need to put anything in the fridge in MN at this time of the year :slight_smile: I lived in MN for one winter.