Are you sure the COBB data is accurate? It doesn’t match with what was printed in the newspaper at all!
COBB release: http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf
Edit: However, I should also add that the 220 I did may not concur with someone else’s 220! LOL. The reason being that the subscores I used were particular to my test taker. That’s the problem with making general conclusions from the concordance tables, BTW. Not sure if concording averages or even sums of subscores is very useful. You really have to work with individual subscores and then add up those to get the appropriate concorded SI. And then do that for every tester, not averages or groups of scores.
@Mamelot - how did you get a 219 and a 226? What were the score breakdowns?
My data was generated by a program I wrote, so if I missed something, it’s a bug.
Here’s my data with means:
SI 200 concords to between 192 (32R/33W/35.0M) and 200 (31R/38W/31.0M), avg 195.6
SI 202 concords to between 194 (32R/34W/35.0M) and 203 (38R/33W/30.0M), avg 198.1
SI 204 concords to between 196 (33R/34W/35.0M) and 205 (38R/33W/31.0M), avg 200.5
SI 206 concords to between 198 (34R/34W/35.0M) and 208 (38R/35W/30.0M), avg 202.9
SI 208 concords to between 201 (33R/36W/35.0M) and 210 (36R/38W/30.0M), avg 205.3
SI 210 concords to between 203 (34R/36W/35.0M) and 214 (37R/38W/30.0M), avg 207.8
SI 212 concords to between 206 (34R/36W/36.0M) and 218 (38R/38W/30.0M), avg 210.3
SI 214 concords to between 209 (34R/36W/37.0M) and 220 (38R/38W/31.0M), avg 212.8
SI 216 concords to between 212 (35R/36W/37.0M) and 222 (38R/38W/32.0M), avg 215.5
SI 218 concords to between 216 (35R/36W/38.0M) and 224 (38R/38W/33.0M), avg 218.4
SI 220 concords to between 220 (35R/37W/38.0M) and 225 (38R/38W/34.0M), avg 221.3
SI 222 concords to between 224 (35R/38W/38.0M) and 226 (38R/35W/38.0M), avg 224.6
SI 224 concords to between 228 (36R/38W/38.0M) and 229 (38R/38W/36.0M), avg 228.2
SI 226 concords to between 232 (37R/38W/38.0M) and 232 (37R/38W/38.0M), avg 232.0
SI 228 concords to between 236 (38R/38W/38.0M) and 236 (38R/38W/38.0M), avg 236.0
I found this interesting (it was in the comments to the Applerouth blog) and I don’t think it’s been posted here before:
"Joe Trader • 14 days ago
This year’s juniors are unfortunate guinea pigs for the College Board. My three junior kids took November SAT and got 2240, 2330, 2330. They would have all qualified for the National Merit Scholarship had they taken the old PSAT (NY state cut-of was 218 for previous year). However, their new PSAT index are 216, 217, 222. I suspect that only one will qualify. Now we could only wait and wonder."
These are obviously very good test takers and their SI scores don’t seem to support the inflation…one more anecdote.
@theshadow #1834 post - at 1453 average TS for Walton, the minimum SI has to be 214. At a predicted SI cutoff of ~209, bulk of the 100 students would get in. Expected SI range at that TS is 214-221, with a mean of 217.5. Even if some of those students below the mean SI score, that’s still quite a bit ways away from predicted 209. I don’t buy tha t Cobb sat down and took highest math score and highest ERW scores separately to come up with an average of 1453. The challenge is to figure out the 20th kid’s SI, the kid who is expected to be SF based on tradition. My guess, GA is at 218.
Also remember Walton’s participation rate is excellent at 97%, 646 11th graders took the PSAT. Someone meowed d that the school was targeting SF via Applerouth and such. It’s possible the school manages to break the mold and report maximum number of SF in relation to the state’s quota. Close to all 100, or 1 in 6 test takers! - tradition defies this logic, however, we are all here due to illogical nature of this all! If CB published actual SI percentiles using even a research sample of 2015 test takers, we wouldn’t be here - would we?
D3 got a 220 based on R = 37, W = 36, M = 37
So on the section-to-test concordance tables:
R = 37 concords to a 77, 76, and 75.
M = 37 concords to a 76, 75, and 74
W = 36 concords to a 73, 72, 71 and 70.
I calculated what I hope is an exhaustive set of these combinations: 36 in all.
The min is 219. It was one combination of 75, 70, and 74 (the sum of the minimum concorded test scores). The max was 226 and was a single combination of 77, 73, and 76 (the sum of the maximum concorded test scores).
Big credit to @SLparents
srk2017 228 CA
nightlark 226 1510 CA
chocaddict 226 CA
sdhotmama 226 CA
srk2017 226 CA
worryhurry411 226 CA
hidude45454 225 CA
cybexx 224 1500 CA
calmomofcats 224 CA
lovethebard 224 CA
ynotgo 224 CA
srk2017 222 CA
srk2017 222 CA
stresstasticlife 222 CA
appgodxoxo 221 1470 CA
picola 221 CA
srk2017 220 1480 CA
LAD2266 220 CA
masond123 220 CA
replyback 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
hittingthat 219 1480 CA
leafseadragon 219 1460 CA
alexcheng10 219 CA
fisik 218 CA
ambitionsquared 217 CA
dsl411 217 CA
hcmom65 217 CA
juicymango 217 CA
livingproof 217 CA
bdragon 216 CA
cornbread1999 215 1450 CA
confusedhs213 215 CA
tikopiarock28 212 CA
chrispychop 210 CA
mangomadness 206 CA
replyback 1490 CA
replyback 1480 CA
ross’ friend ?? 1520 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1500 TX
curlypie99 ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1460 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1430 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
slparent (friend) 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
cgsarat71 218 1470 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
sammieb 216 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross’ friend 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ross’ friend 213 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
ross’ friend 211 TX
svoll123 211 TX
slparent ( friend) 209 1420 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 202 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 198 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 197 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 195 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 190 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 189 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 182 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 180 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 175 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 160 TX
speedy2019 (friend) 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) 1510 TX
I like " I stand my ground".
As kids, I do ask my friends’ scores (not all but the potential), since we know each other since almost 3rd grade. We know each other too long - not consider at privacy intrusions. Point is if somebody make 1520 perfect, just like a very loud thunder in a clear sky.
Last year, North TX had 360+ NMSF, Houston area 370+ NMSF, Austin probably 370+. For three big cities, 82% NMSF for whole TX, the rest is 18%.
From unofficial report, we have 100 (+/-) perfect scores for PSAT in previous years. This year, Thank God Bless America, we will have 550+ perfect scorers (assuming)
From unofficial report by @SLparents, we see a few top at 1510 -1520 or top 228 -226. Look like 2015 PSAT data behaves just like SAT data table
TX and CA population take op 20.5% of US. Interpret - we will have around 113 perfect scorers. Now with @SL parents report, I have not seen thunder in a clear sky yet
Please check back at previous SAT data tables. You will see at the end range of 99+%, we have 7700+, the rest 7300 dips into top 3rd of 99%tile
Then, you can make your own conclusion about cut off for your states
@dallaspiano Here you go! Just CA & TX
srk2017 228 CA
nightlark 226 1510 CA
chocaddict 226 CA
sdhotmama 226 CA
srk2017 226 CA
worryhurry411 226 CA
hidude45454 225 CA
cybexx 224 1500 CA
calmomofcats 224 CA
lovethebard 224 CA
ynotgo 224 CA
srk2017 222 CA
srk2017 222 CA
stresstasticlife 222 CA
appgodxoxo 221 1470 CA
picola 221 CA
srk2017 220 1480 CA
LAD2266 220 CA
masond123 220 CA
replyback 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
hittingthat 219 1480 CA
leafseadragon 219 1460 CA
alexcheng10 219 CA
fisik 218 CA
ambitionsquared 217 CA
dsl411 217 CA
hcmom65 217 CA
juicymango 217 CA
livingproof 217 CA
bdragon 216 CA
cornbread1999 215 1450 CA
confusedhs213 215 CA
tikopiarock28 212 CA
chrispychop 210 CA
mangomadness 206 CA
replyback 1490 CA
replyback 1480 CA
ross’ friend ?? 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) ?? 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) ?? 1510 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1500 TX
curlypie99 ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1460 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1430 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
slparent (friend) 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
cgsarat71 218 1470 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
sammieb 216 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
speedy2019 215 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross’ friend 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ross’ friend 213 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
ross’ friend 211 TX
svoll123 211 TX
slparent ( friend) 209 1420 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 202 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 198 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 197 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 195 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 190 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 189 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 182 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 180 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 175 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 160 TX
I have heard of two 1520s. One from a private school in Dallas, not sure which one. The other from my sons school but some question the truthfulness of that score. Son scored, 1460 (216). He knows of two- three with higher scores, one with a close TS maybe higher SI. Last year the school had 3 NMSF. They are trying to increase numbers so 5 or more would not be a shock.
Another thought I had was about common core. Texas does not do common core, in theory states that do should have increases in SI scores and their cut-offs would increase while states that do not might show an effective decrease.
@dallaspiano I’m in the same thinking camp with you! This is why I started collecting real data from real test takers and put aside statistical analysis (other people can do that since I can’t). Do you know how we can go about getting real scores from some schools that typically produce a high number of NMSF’s? Like St. John or TAMS?
But then again, how do we know that there are NOT a lot of perfect scores out there? If my kid had 1500-1520 or 225-228, I wouldn’t be asking if she’s gonna make it or not?
So, I’m just building my excel and put out numbers for you guys to see.
Do you know how we can go about getting real scores from some schools that typically produce a high number of NMSF’s? Like St. John or TAMS?
One other note: the other file from non CC’s…their scores are even lower.
@Slparents, I do have friends at St. Mark (private Catholic) TAMS (Tx Academy of Math &Science - top cream students). I checked with them a week ago, they said none. Since I mention those two schools, they (two) used to take 1/6 NMSF for the whole North TX. We all know students (of those) very competitive
Wisconsin here 
My Ds TS is 1450 and SI 216. She went into the test knowing it was a new format but she expected it to be really difficult. She assumed that because last year’s AP U.S. History final (which was also revised) was ridiculously difficult, that the new PSAT would be a lot more difficult than the ACT (which for reference she took and got a 31). Yet, she texted me when she was finished and said she couldn’t believe how easy it was and that she didn’t think she got any wrong. I was surprised and then immediately wrote it off - thinking if it was really that easy she would need a perfect score to have a shot.
We got her results a few weeks ago and lo and behold she did get several wrong but lo and behold she also scored in the 99th% in all categories. So she was excited. But then very confused. What did it all mean? She went to school and I did some research after she left. And. Haven’t . Been. Able. To. Stop. My D, however, stopped thinking about it as soon as she left for school that day, knowing that she needs to just wait until Sept. I’ve asked her if she knew of others’ scores and she has said no and that she wouldn’t feel right to ask anyone. So I’ve just been finding out what I can on my own. I haven’t asked our GC, for several reasons that I’d rather not go into.
I have gone to bed at night thinking there is no way a 216 will cut it, to thinking of course it will, back to no way again… I never thought I would still be pondering this issue days, let alone weeks later. Your comments here have been an extremely good read over the past few days. It’s difficult to not stay on top of it all! I’ve also looked to see what’s been trending on FB with “psat” and it’s also, in a very different way, been interesting! I haven’t really come across anything earth shattering that hasn’t already been discussed here. But, through all that I have encountered, I think all SI scores will go up this year.
Although my D said her prep for the ACT seemed to be helpful on the PSAT, I’m just so surprised it wasn’t more difficult; and I just can’t imagine that the allotted 340 or so scores in WI won’t be higher than a 216. My head is literally fogged from all of the numbers, charts, blogs, etc. but nothing has yet to make me feel easy about a 216 in our lower scoring state. Which btw, has been a shock to find out! With the great schools we have in the Appleton area, I would have thought we were a much higher scoring state. Yikes.
Like I said, it’s all a fog, but for those who talked about OK and the GC saying upper 0.5% - that is pretty accurate for each state and maybe that’s what she meant, or was confused about.
For whatever any of that was worth…
Oh, and a question - why is the SI score doubled? Why a 216 and not just a 108? Is it truly just to try to align with the old SI?
ACT easier? SAT easier? PSAT easy? You probably find that answers in many blogs - no need to repeat
But I believe it myself, study one may improve the other - provided if student have time - but go to top end of the scores, is a different story. Just like a kung fu artist: want to be better, want to be best of the best. You got practice a lot, a lot on what you know already. If you get it all of sudden, a genius is born
@HalfMoon22 wrote She went to school and I did some research after she left. And. Haven’t . Been. Able. To. Stop.
LOL, welcome brother Moon, we accept you without judgement. Congratulations to your dd, and enjoy the rollercoaster that is nmsf bubbleville.
Musing on two things somewhat connected:
(1) The commended line/score: does anyone know if it can actually EXCEED a state SF cutoff line/score? I don’t believe it can. At least I have not seen any historical evidence. Basically, I thought the commended line was always more or less at the 50,000th test taker’s SI who by definition had to be in 96/97% range if you have a population of 1.5 mill test takers. My point here is I do not think the SI percentiles can be based on a national 3.5 mill (real and notional population), since NM corp uses the SI index for commended and S/F purposes based on the 1.5 mill population (although I think this test had 1.7 mill test takers).
(2) Space: The old PSAT had a range from 240 - 202 for SFs. That’s a lot of room. Originally, the thinking was the same space or room would apply to the 2015 test, so the range would be 228-192. But now it looks like they’ve cut the space in half (range from concordance is 226-210) and so 2x as many kids are in the same slots as before assuming uniform distribution. I guess this has been glossed over before, but its seem like you will have some states with too many kids making the cutoff way the state’s expected graduation percentile allocation as a result of this compression. NM might have to create fractional SIs to work out these overflow issues. But maybe I’m not seeing it correctly.
@dallaspiano is there 2 TAMS campus? 1 in Houston & 1 in Dallas?
@HalfMoon22, nice to hear from Wisconsin. Cutoff was 208 last year I believe. So on the lower side of the scoring states. But if you really want to compare Wisconsin schools to the nation, I would look at the mean of psat or sat for a better comparison. The cutoff scores are comparing the top of each state. A better academic measurement would probably be to compare the average Wisconsin student to the average national student. I think PSAT mean is 1009-1010 for this year. Wisconsin’s state summary report will have the mean for your students.