Last year the cutoff in MN was 214 and my daughter’s high school had exactly ZERO NMSFs. Large suburban high school with a good (not great) academic reputation. If, as some have predicted, the cutoff in MN drops from 214 to 205, the high school will go from zero NMSFs last year to over 25 this year (anecodotal based on conversations with classmates, not hard numbers from the GC). I think the “wishful thinking bug” is spreading faster than the ZIKA virus.
A CB webinar is happening at 2pm Eastern time: https://collegeboardtraining.webex.com/mw3000/mywebex/default.do?nomenu=true&siteurl=collegeboardtraining&service=6&rnd=0.7428999918805903&main_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcollegeboardtraining.webex.com%2Fec3000%2Feventcenter%2Fevent%2FeventAction.do%3FtheAction%3Ddetail%26confViewID%3D3729894407%26%26EMK%3D4832534b00000002f6d023dea62fdb512442f88466c09046126aee2dc1ba4e58709b10d7164decf4%26%26encryptTicket%3DSDJTSwAAAAJ8KCXHVjmbdr1DGYEky_oqrHg9IOFQ60QvrzjY4PSY9A2%26%26siteurl%3Dcollegeboardtraining
anyone can register. They do take some questions posed by participants and answer them. https://lp.collegeboard.org/help-resources-accessing-scores
Hi guys, I am really late to this party because my DS only JUST got his scores. Is 221 in NY probably a pretty safe bet? Thanks!
I think so based on the various predictions we’ve seen. Any chance you could ask the Guidance Dept for their report showing how his score compares to the school & the state? Congrats on a great score!!
@VandyAlum93 “How many would they have if the GA cutoff is 217”. Three
1430, 215 SI, TX
@Lea111 - I have a whole table of those numbers in this thread:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1855868-reconciling-2015-psat-concordance-tables-with-percentile-tables.html#latest
SI 200 concords to between 192 (32R/33W/35.0M) and 200 (31R/38W/31.0M)
SI 202 concords to between 194 (32R/34W/35.0M) and 203 (38R/33W/30.0M)
SI 204 concords to between 196 (33R/34W/35.0M) and 205 (38R/33W/31.0M)
SI 206 concords to between 198 (34R/34W/35.0M) and 208 (38R/35W/30.0M)
SI 208 concords to between 201 (33R/36W/35.0M) and 210 (36R/38W/30.0M)
SI 210 concords to between 203 (34R/36W/35.0M) and 214 (37R/38W/30.0M)
SI 212 concords to between 206 (34R/36W/36.0M) and 218 (38R/38W/30.0M)
SI 214 concords to between 209 (34R/36W/37.0M) and 220 (38R/38W/31.0M)
SI 216 concords to between 212 (35R/36W/37.0M) and 222 (38R/38W/32.0M)
SI 218 concords to between 216 (35R/36W/38.0M) and 224 (38R/38W/33.0M)
SI 220 concords to between 220 (35R/37W/38.0M) and 225 (38R/38W/34.0M)
SI 222 concords to between 224 (35R/38W/38.0M) and 226 (38R/35W/38.0M)
SI 224 concords to between 228 (36R/38W/38.0M) and 229 (38R/38W/36.0M)
SI 226 concords to between 232 (37R/38W/38.0M) and 232 (37R/38W/38.0M)
SI 228 concords to between 236 (38R/38W/38.0M) and 236 (38R/38W/38.0M)
- Updated scores from CC’s:
luvmy3girls 220 1470 AL
chewy7083 217 AL
3dixieboys 209 AL
motherof4sons 209 1410 AR
arizona 223 1500 AZ
tanyat23 223 1490 AZ
zeeke007 218 1460 AZ
mom3eps 216 AZ
phoenixmomof2 212 AZ
zeeke007 1490 AZ
srk2017 228 CA
nightlark 226 1510 CA
chocaddict 226 CA
sdhotmama 226 CA
srk2017 226 CA
worryhurry411 226 CA
hidude45454 225 CA
cybexx 224 1500 CA
calmomofcats 224 CA
lovethebard 224 CA
ynotgo 224 CA
srk2017 222 CA
srk2017 222 CA
stresstasticlife 222 CA
appgodxoxo 221 1470 CA
picola 221 CA
srk2017 220 1480 CA
LAD2266 220 CA
masond123 220 CA
replyback 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
hittingthat 219 1480 CA
leafseadragon 219 1460 CA
alexcheng10 219 CA
fisik 218 CA
ambitionsquared 217 CA
dsl411 217 CA
hcmom65 217 CA
juicymango 217 CA
livingproof 217 CA
bdragon 216 CA
cornbread1999 215 1450 CA
confusedhs213 215 CA
tikopiarock28 212 CA
chrispychop 210 CA
mangomadness 206 CA
replyback 1490 CA
replyback 1480 CA
griffinv989 212 CO
ctstrider 225 CT
chilkitty 223 1490 CT
cglynn 223 CT
theamazing77 213 1440 CT
blue1artic 203 1380 CT
aptrail 225 DC
candjsdad 1490 DC
tableforsix 225 FL
doraemon33004 223 1490 FL
3boystogo 222 1490 FL
mitrak 222 FL
AJ2017 220 1480 FL
AJ2017 220 1480 FL
AJ2017 218 1470 FL
samgallahan 218 1460 FL
proudpatriot 217 FL
tallymom2017 217 FL
2blessed2b 216 1430 FL
delilahhxc 216 FL
long2181998 216 FL
atr123 215 1440 FL
canadant 215 FL
calchong 212 FL
mom2twodds 210 FL
AJ2017 (3-4 people) 1430-1450 FL
AJ2017 1450 FL
AJ2017 1430 FL
lea111 224-226 1500 GA
lea111 226 GA
stingray2000 225 GA
primenumber2 222 1490 GA
childishambino 218 GA
raiderdore 218 GA
yakisoba 216 1450 GA
gabaseballmom 212 GA
futuremmachamp 218 IA
kyrieirving2 211 1380 IA
franklin20 207 IA
jake071999 224 1500 IL
daven 223 1490 IL
asianfang 222 IL
ivysaurusrex 222 IL
dotexe 218 IL
WGSK88 218 IL
glassflowers 216 IL
ican’tsleep 214 IL
jay12321 211 1420 IL
jcdeiskating 210 IL
kikidee9 216 1450 IN
andre 211 1430 KS
jjutgen15 211 1420 KS
dwilliam 217 1460 KY
vandyalum93 214 KY
mompop 212 1410 KY
vandyalum93 211 1410 KY
destin4harvard 210 1400 KY
sportsman88 215 LA
mlp139 228 MA
annmarie4 224 MA
bluekou23 222 1480 MA
walnuthill 222 1480 MA
tarantiny 221 1470 MA
tigraci 221 MA
annmarie4 220 1480 MA
flyingoat 220 MA
massmom 220 MA
annmarie4 209 MA
eminem99 200 MA
annmarie4 1510 MA
ackack 222 MD
burstlimit 222 MD
aron 217 1450 MD
clarebeatrice 206 MD
greeneggsandsam9 206 MD
fun1234 222 ME
celica 223 MI
marccoreusi 208 1400 MI
profdad2021 204 1380 MI
mamelot(for friend) 226 MN
mnpapa29 222 1480 MN
mamelot 220 MN
laikadoodles 218 1470 MN
mraustere 215 1440 MN
shelt29 214 MN
shelt29 212 MN
boglebuff 217 1440 MO
kcedition 211 MO
123field 210 MO
datahead 222 1480 MS
earlvandorn 211 1410 MS
earlvandorn (for son’s friend) 207 MS
liveonlife 205 MS
paveyourpath 223 NC
racmpc 220 1450 NC
disshar 218 NC
payn4ward 199 NC
ananmatisse 209 1390 ND
drewhamahill 208 NE
suzyq7 221 1480 New England Boarding school
crusoemon 1440 NH
hades321 225 1500 NJ
momnjof2 224 1500 NJ
shiryc 224 NJ
fambrughini 221 NJ
chembiodad 219 1440 NJ
cbow17 212 NJ
ro2400 211 NJ
realtwinkie 208 NJ
rustroll 217 NV
mamallama 221 NY
trig2017 221 NY
CA1543 218 1470 NY
mcw2017 215 NY
liibigidiot 213 1430 NY
zaarp 213 NY
srod99 211 1400 NY
starjoy8 195 1260 NY
mdcmom 194 NY
aaronuhs 225 OH
flashk 223 1490 OH
garyasho2 220 1480 OH
enforece88 220 1470 OH
milfordeagles 219 1470 OH
sberry26 218 1440 OH
ohtocollege (friend) 216 1450 OH
ohtocollege 215 1440 OH
ohiodad51 213 OH
violinviolamom 210 OH
violinviolamom 190 OH
catook 216 1450 OK
hopefulmomof6 214 1430 OK
evan99 213 OK
catook-27 juniors with >1400 OK
studious99 222 OR
danc3rmrm 218 OR
hm1101 214 OR
kjflhd 228 PA
engineur 215 PA
classof2017 206 PA
gghteah 204 RI
irishtwins 206 1340 SC
dakotadelsuf13 206 SD
likestowrite 222 TN
smilingalong 220 TN
higheredrocks 215 TN
isalck32 211 TN
mkumar17 210 1420 TN
ross’ friend ?? 1520 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1500 TX
curlypie99 ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1460 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1430 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
slparent (friend) 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
cgsarat71 218 1470 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
sammieb 216 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross’ friend 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ross’ friend 213 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
ross’ friend 211 TX
svoll123 211 TX
slparent ( friend) 209 1420 TX
tgirlfriend 202 TX
tgirlfriend 198 TX
tayemach 197 TX
tgirlfriend 195 TX
tgirlfriend 190 TX
mphiltx 189 TX
tgirlfriend 182 TX
tgirlfriend 180 TX
tgirlfriend 175 TX
tgirlfriend 160 TX
slaudsmom 220 1480 UT
crazym0m 224 1500 VA
novadad99 221 VA
thinmints 220 1470 VA
jrkick64 215 VA
waldeizhere 225 1500 WA
picuberoot 222 1490 WV
oechols 201 1300 WV
eragon314 226
lovesmath 226
bobbbb 225 1500
collegefreak 225
footsondaughter 225
sincerelove 224
ketchup 223 1480
jjundy 221
merething 221
ananyadoodles 220
timenchanter 220
mtrosemom 219
knowledgeless 218
mtrosemom 218
perch1024 218
chew7083 217
wvuhopeful 216
pnwfam 214
stlmo62 213
amyandscott 211
joewellen 210 1430
phudou193 210 1370
nwmom2boys 210
pannaga 209
pannaga 208
smileydinosaur 205
addalinemore 204 1350
buffalo 203
szgardengirl 200
js1029 198
nillupa 192
hopeforthebest 1200
- Scores from other websites (appear lower):
steven (4 or 5 have) 220+ ??
deanna ?? 960 ??
steven 226 ??
joy 223 ??
dave 222 1500 ??
jordan 214 ??
justcurious 211 ??
john (many friends have) 223-228 AZ
john 224 AZ
polly 216 AZ
samantha 214 AZ
joe 221 CA
jj 220 CA
gerard 219 CA
henry 219 CA
nicholas 219 CA
ravs 211 CA
julie 221 CO
william 216 CT
ross 208 CT
ehtan 223 DC
ethan (twin) 223 DC
levster 210 FL
tom 210 FL
daira 218 1470 GA
don 210 ID
liz 216 IL
tammy 214 IL
luhar 211 IL
pat 210 IL
amy 208 IL
emma 211 KS
will 211 KS
may 206 KS
benjamin 203 KS
mark 221 MD
amanda 215 MD
eric 214 MD
hilary 212 ME
eric 215 Mid Atlantic Boarding school
zhen 215 MN
mike 220 MS
anshul 198 MS
dylan 205 MT
baarkley 221 NC
jennifer 218 NC
jenna lee ?? 1470 NH Boarding school
jo 214 NV
stef 198 NV
chacob 216 NY
john 213 NY
nancy 206 OH
sam 206 OH
stacy 219 student overseas
maanil 210 TN
joe 206 TN
zola ?? 1350 TX
aamir 222 TX
neal 220 TX
cody 218 TX
bill 214 1450 TX
gary 213 TX
deborah 212 TX
jason 212 1410 TX
ron 212 TX
cody’s friend 211 TX
tim 211 TX
laura 208 TX
julie 206 TX
neal’s friend 192 TX
devin 216 VA
sarah 216 VA
tk 218 1430 WIS
@Speedy2019 sorry! Just missed you… will catch you next time 
I am following this discussion for a while about cut-offs on this board. All the blogs and participants here have been predicting cut-offs in many different ways. However I do not recall seeing anybody simply correlating to the national percentiles of the Merit Index (not the score) based on the historical cut-off for the states. Till last year, the score and the merit index were the same. So were the percentiles. Note I am talking about National percentiles here. Obviously state percentiles are not available.
So last year 99+ percentile was 240 to 224. So it will imply that states like DC or New Jersey etc. had to be in 99+ nationally to qualify for NMSF. Similarly sates like NY, CT will have to be in the high end of 99% to qualify. Now refer back to the National Merit Index percentile for this year (2017). I think 99 +% stops at 214, 99% stops at 205 and so on.
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
So doesn’t it imply that kids in DC, New Jersey, Maryland etc., who got at least 214 will be selected? Similarly NY, CT etc. will probably be Ok till 212/213. This is lower than what several test companies are predicting. This will also imply that the commended cut-off will be still in the 200 range and may be as low as 198. Interestingly, according to this data, the bottom end (98 to 96) got a lot more squeezed than the top end.
I think while the people in high cut-off states can have a reliable idea of their cut-offs, the lower cut-off states can be a little harder to predict due to lower resolution of published percentiles in that zone.
Anyway, will love to see what others think of this way of looking at the numbers.
@kikidee9 I don’t see how DC can ever have a lower cutoff than NJ. You are showing 221 for NJ and 220 for DC. DC seems to be the most penalized ‘state’.
@SLparent …thank you for all your hard work on the scores now.
@andygus I agree with you in theory but you need to account for the change in definition of the percentiles this year. Last year a 97th percentile meant HIGHER than 97th percent - this year it means 97th percent OR HIGHER. When you take this into account, last year’s 202 (probably 98% or higher because it was HIGHER than 97%) turns into this year’s 202 which is 98% or higher. That’s my thinking at any rate. Unfortunately this doesn’t help much when we are looking at 10th of a percent up in the 99’s which is where the higher scores are. But my hunch is telling me that because we see this year that 215 (at or better than low 99+) is consistent with last year’s 215 (better than low 99) then why would IL’s SI of 215 be different this year? That’s my thinking. IOW, I don’t think that the table are supposed to change all that much. I haven’t tried an extensive reconciliation between this method and the concordance method - other than for MN (which tends to work) or my D3’s score (which also tends to work). The problem with concordance is that you need to be very specific and look at individual subscores of individual tests - it may not work for averages or general scores (which is of course exactly how people are applying them).
I might be very wrong in this method but based on it I’m predicting we will see some of the highest scores come down somewhat and the commended at about 202 or so, and everything else moves a round a little or doesn’t - as it has every year.
FWIW.
(Note, in referencing historical percentiles I’m using ones from 2013, as the 2014 percentile tables have not been released by CB, and making the assumption that the most recent SI index is based on percentiles that don’t deviate much from the 2013).
@SLparent. Mme, thank you
While you’re at Excel, can you sort scores by TS and SI just for TX and CA (if possible).
I know it’s not complete and it does not represent anything
Thank again
@OHToCollege - while I agree with your sentiment, your math isn’t quite right. If the median was the average, and the average was the cutoff, that would qualify only 50 of the 100, not all 100. And note that due to statistical skew, the median will certainly be less than the mean / average. I was talking about this in another thread of mine ( http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1854066-statistical-monte-carlo-analysis-of-cobb-county-psat-data-p1.html ).
But the summary is - yeah, the Cobb data seems to imply that even keeping the 218 cutoff the same would let 20-something kids from Walton make it (vs. 16 from last year). Though 20 is certainly possible - I think they had 30 2 years ago. So it’s not like they constantly have 15 every year…
The most interesting thing I read today is the question - did Cobb County take the top 100 math scores and top 100 reading scores independently, and then add them up? That would make the 1453 an overestimate.
Though as @DoyleB points out, we have heard anecdotes of other places where scores seem too high. Applerouth mentions them somewhat vaguely (“all over the country”), plus someone here talked about OK and how too many kids had >= 1400.
There’s nothing that’s irrefutable, but it’s clearly evidence for cutoffs more in line with previous years (as opposed to some more optimistic predictions made in this thread).
@SLparent I counted 40 states, DC and a boarding school. Amazing work!!!
@suzyQ7 I think that the scores over the years seem to go back and forth between the high producing states of upper end scores. I think NJ will pull higher than DC with the factors of reported scores so far and (to be honest) my gut. I think DC will have to go lower to allow for (I think) a wider discrepancy in scores. I think the heavier top will be in NJ where you have a higher percentage of high achievers clustered in small areas where the numbers might drastically increase. I am NO expert or even understand half of what you statisticians say…but my gut says the top end will have 1 or 2 states relatively high with the rest staying or moving 1 to 3 points north or south ( I think Georgia may be the surprise high end state)…and a few states dipping to pick up their students to meet cutoffs. @CA1543 I think some states are going to prove tougher ( I could be wrong about Washington…but they do have a record of solid scores) whereas CT seems to ebb and flow and I think this test will be helpful for those who normally wouldn’t have tested as well in a heavy math focus. The states that worry me are in the top 97/98th percentile. Not many are reporting from those states…and with schools like UA, Ole Miss and UO giving such wonderful scholarships…they hopefully pulled it up to grab their own flagships! Who knows. LOVE speculating…now if I could just decide on Panthers vs. Broncos.
@thshadow: Thanks. I did see your ranges of concorded scores various SIs in the other thread. Maybe it’s helpful to have not just ranges, but median/means too. I realize that this would require typing in the entire concordance tables, at least for the high subscores. Mamelot’s idea was to have people break up the work, or share what they’d already done. I’d already done 214, so there it is, for whatever it’s worth.
I simply have a hard time believing that the percentile tables are based on national test takers (the 3 million). In order to meet the first basic criteria of the NMSC board, a student has to take the test.
That being said, the percentile creep would account for some creep up in score, but how much?
The anecdotal evidence and the salient points of @DoyleB are hard to refute.
I don’t think the scores will be as low as @dallaspiano (sorry), but I don’t think they will be as high as @kikidee9. As @Speedy2019 pointed out, there are only so many 228 and 226 scorers. While DC and NJ have REALLY smart kids (or great test takers), there will be some students from other states that score in those ranges as well.
Personally, I’m going with @thshadow’s numbers. They are higher than just going by percentiles and can still account for some of the anecdotal evidence from GA and OK.