Solid school, will be well under budget.
That’s the big thing -
OP can find schools, great schools, like Ohio State that they may get into - and may make budget - and absolutely should apply to schools like that.
But they need to have the base of the list, the most important schools - those that are safeties and beat the $40K budget - like UTC - and I’d ensure I have several of those on my list - because it removes all the doubt and the student may end up liking one better and thus saving the family more. And there’s many great ones!!
Still unsure why Va Tech (in state) isn’t on the list. It’s not a gimme for sure - but it’s a reasonable reach and a financial home run.