<p>No, i mean why will acceptance rates rise and why will applicant numbers drop?</p>
<p>^ There’s currently a ‘bubble’ of high school graduates in the US, which was a result of the Echo Boom, and peaked in 2008-09. People like us, who are applying to the college classes of 2015, are unlucky because more people are still applying to more colleges, for aid and better chances at getting in (but also, I think, for better choices about where to go). However, since the number of people graduating from high school has started to drop (from less people in our age group, not from falling graduation rates), there are starting to be fewer people to apply to colleges in the first place. Sooner or later, the falling population numbers are going to overtake the rising numbers of applicants. After that, the growth of applicant pools should slow, stop, and (hopefully for any younger siblings) reverse. Following from that, acceptance rates will rise. Horrible, lucky knaves…</p>
<p>Lucky us… But a one-in-eight chance for acceptance to Stanford isn’t too bad, right? Fractions seem to make everything seem more positive.</p>
<p>Huh, interesting. I can’t believe our population is diminshing!</p>
<p>^ I mean, the US’s population is still growing. It’s just that the number of people in our age group is getting smaller. It’s perfectly normal because of… I can’t explain this well. So a lot of kids in the Millennial generation ( esp. those b. ~'82-'95) have baby boomers for parents? That’s the bubble we’re coming off of. The next generation after the baby boomers was smaller, so they had fewer kids altogether than the boomers did even if they had the same number per capita (I’m not sure they did, but if they did, then…). The population has… bulges? I guess that’s the best way to put it. When the people who made up the college admissions boom in the first place start having kids, it’ll happen all over again.</p>
<p>That’s what i meant by our, our generation. Interesting</p>
<p>Oh, mkay. Nevermind, then. XDD</p>
<p>@Courtney: I calculated the number of people from this year’s pledge list from the number who got in last year… right now it’s somewhere less than about 8.5, since I haven’t figured out how to account for a rise in admissions.</p>
<p>
I’m not too sure about that. Populations are decreasing in many developed countries around the world. The only reason America’s population is growing is due to immigration. I’d say that within a few decades or even earlier than that, America’s population will start declining and we’ll see a drop in college applications, and perhaps an increase in the admit rate. IMO, I don’t think we’ll see another baby boom if current trends continue.</p>
<p>Wulfran- What did you do? You calculated the average acceptance rate for CCers? I’m a little confused. Also, I refuse to join that pledge thread because I think it’s bad karma or something :P</p>
<p>Hey, don’t blame the immigrants (shrinks)</p>
<p>^No one’s blamed immigrants for anything.</p>
<p>How could anyone blame you when you have an AWESOME accent?!</p>
<p>Harambee i’m joking 
I love pulling the race card! Especially since I’m white and from Africa. Haha</p>
<p>@courtney, you just joined.</p>
<p>I knooooow. I still don’t like the idea, but I felt bad reading the thread and not pledging.</p>
<h1>1352: THIS.</h1>
<p>@Courtney, for the earlier post: I calculated how many people who pledged last year got in, were accepted, or were rejected. I think it’s the best way we have of measuring the acceptance rate of CC-ers (so all the people who just randomly apply are removed).</p>
<p>@Harambee: The thing is, though, that the population doesn’t even have to be growing for that to happen. Because of the vast increases in people going to college- still going on right now, even if you account for people hiding from the recession in schools- applicant pools will probably grow larger again, with the aid of the next swell in the population. Since the population is no longer growing domestically, though, it probably won’t be as much, and there’ll be a nice lull after this bubble.</p>
<p>
I see your point, but I’m trying to say that I don’t think there will be another large swell in the population. More students applying to more schools is the only reason I can see for future increases in applicant pools.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Fertility rates in the US might be dropping, but they’re not dropping that fast. When the current bubble of applicants starts having babies, there will be another swell in the population- not because there are SUPER HUGE NUMBERS of babies being had, but because there are so many people having them.</p>
<p>^I see what you’re saying now.</p>
<p>@wulfran</p>
<p>try this:</p>
<p>% increase in CC applicants / 7% (ie, % increase in total REA pool) X prev. number</p>