@vistajay I’m rooting for U Miami for your DS it was in the top five for my DD and top three for my list for her and but she ruled it out due to “tropical weather” and “humidity”
@droppedit there goes all the things I read that once you reach a certain score you shouldn’t try anymore and should spend your time on other things!
Odds game for S18:
Providence College-50%
Villanova-25%
St Joseph’s-10%
TCNJ-10%
Gamestop employee-5%
@MomOutWest, I look at it as odds that the child will ultimately attend. “The Field” is a school (or schools) not mentioned specifically.
The odds are what one school the kid will actually attend . It is of course for fun, based on knowledge available to you at this time, and what you think might change in the future.
The “Field” in in this context represents all the schools not named with their own odds. In our case, it could even include a school not on the radar…
@droppedit Forgive the ignorant (me), but how did you extrapolate this information (35+ at USC and one perfect SAT score at S increases “substantially” (yes, relative term) chances of admission?
I’ve said this before, but we had a test prep company executive come to D’s school and tell us that Stanford rejects 70% of the perfect SAT (1,600) scores.
Got it re: odds game! (I’m afraid to play for fear of jinxing. Keeping cards close to the chest right now.)
@MomOutWest, the odds are our best guess on where our kids will actually end up. It’s a combination of the likelihood of acceptance, the student’s level of interest in the school, and any other factors influencing the outcome (e.g. chance that merit aid or FA makes it affordable). So for an elite school with very low acceptance unless your kid is majorly hooked (last name Obama or Trump, mom’s name on a very expensive building, kid’s Academy Award on your mantel, etc) you’re best off sticking with the published acceptance rate, or lower if it’s not tops on the kid’s interest list. For affordable schools where the student has either already been admitted or is sure to be admitted, the odds are purely related to the student’s interest level.
Edit to add: since this is about where the student will end up, the total odds must add up to 100. Because the kid’s going somewhere next year, even if that’s McDonald’s or GameStop!
@amominaz @sushiritto – here’s the Stanford breakdown for 2016:
https://admission.stanford.edu/apply/selection/profile16.html
Look at the rates for the SAT components. Of course, those numbers aren’t independent from the rest of the application (as in, I got an 800 on SAT English, therefore I have a 12% chance even though I have a 2.5 GPA ) but it does show a significant increase for ultra-high scores. Regardless, the admit rate is dismal for all applicants.
Belmont-70%
University of Miami 25%
Drexel 5%
Only applied to 3 schools Dropped Berklee and NYU shortly after visits dropped USC after the 5 hour flight home
@droppedit I hadn’t seen that chart, though admittedly, I wasn’t looking for it either. :)) Thanks.
Interesting to note that a perfect score on math is worth less than CR or W. 
@sushiritto – my guess is that’s because more S applicants have perfect Math scores (18% vs. 10%).
@3scoutsmom , I hear you. My S18 rejected any place we suggested that had cold weather, though we eventually talked him into applying to Northwestern and Fordham.
@Kayak24, my S18 decided very late in the game to add a big reach ED to his otherwise merit-focused list. We’ll be paying much more than we planned if by chance he does get in, but it seems like a really fantastic fit.
@pickledginger , Good luck to your son!
Anyone up for an update in the continued saga of As Kayak’s World Turns? <:-P
As a recap, D received an email invitation last week extending the ED deadline at her dream school after she had already applied RD.
After much consideration and some correspondence with their FA office, D makes decision to apply ED and responds to school email offer late last night. School sends ED form this morning and says to get signatures and “email it back to me as soon as possible.” No contact name (it’s signed “Apphelp.”)
I get the signatures and drop off to D’s Counselor to sign. Counselor emails D this afternoon to say she sent it to Admissions. D calls Admissions to follow up at 4pm today and is told by a not-so-kind person on the other end that ED is over.
D explains situation. Unkind person says she’ll look, then says she can’t find anything but that it takes them a few days to go through their stacks of paper.
Deadline is 11:59pm tonight. I would send it myself but my copy only has our signatures (not GC’s). 
Counselor is gone for the day.
I guess ED may now be contingent on whether GC really sent the form to the correct place with no transmission errors, and whether the school is lenient with the signatures deadline.
To be continued!
:-??
@Kayak24 I think it’s time for a nice kayak ride on a nearby lake. Wow. Why does the ED paperwork need a GC’s signature anyway? My D’s REA app didn’t need one, but it’s not ED either.
@Kayak24, wow - that is a horrible situation. I would consider sending the version with your signatures along with a cover letter saying that it’s your understanding that the fully executed version was sent earlier by the GC, but that you were not able to confirm that with certainty before the 11:59 deadline because the GC is out, so you are sending this version. Fingers crossed that it all works out!!!
@pickledginger , thank you!! That’s what I wanted to do but D thinks it makes her seem “annoying” and that responding to the initial offer was enough to do under the deadline. I told her that’s a big risk to take! I will talk more with her when I get home later. She has full faith that it’s been submitted within the deadline once they find the GC’s submission. I don’t think she’s lived long enough to know that electronics have no guarantee and there is too much room for human error too (clerk picks up the form and tosses it bc ED deadline has passed).
@Kayak24 , look at it this way: Let’s say the school sticks by some deadline and says, “Thanks anyway, but ED is over! See ya at RD time!” Your D has still accomplished the mission of showing the school that it is her first choice and she will attend if FA works out, so she may have a leg up at RD time. Plus she won’t have the binding aspect of ED to fret about. Everybody wins!
The irony of the situation is that the school reached out to @kayak24 to go ED, flagging the app, and now they appear to be acting like a bunch of robots. You would think they would have setup a non-DMV (Dept. of Motor Vehicles)-like procedure for these top notch kids. What are we talking about, a few hundred kids, maybe? Shesh. :-??
The original email could have contained an “express line” email stating to send it to:
Sorry, @Kayak24 I’m living your frustration.