@sushiritto :))
@sushiritto I thought your odds were 75% McDonalds, 20% CC, and 5% other. 
And believe me, I’m not knocking McD or CC. Those are great options for the right person and can open the door to great opportunities. But that’s not @sushiritto’s intellectual kid.
@melvin123 Darn it! I definitely misplaced my sarcasm this morning and forgot McD’s.
FWIW, I worked for Mickey D’s all though high school and during my first year of college.
I even wrote poetry about it. 
Intellectual kid? Ya, my D’s big intellectual dilemma right is whether she should attend a football game or a soccer match this weekend. :))
SO I just did my guess at odd’s on S’s schools, and now I’m wondering if he should cut back on some of his RD applications. If he does not get into his ED, there are two others that seem to be strong possibles and then his two safeties which he sumbitted EA. I give the rest of the field between 0-5%. I’m wondering if its even worth the time to do them. If he doesn’t get into his ED, the chance of his getting into the rest of his list seems less likely. They are just as hard to get into as the ED but without the ED help and he has shown them a little less love during the process.
@DavidPuddy , Re: no word from Admissions… Is it possible that your son’s application was flagged for NMSF and is in the hands of the person in charge of NM there? I say this only bc when we visited UCF, their NM Rep told us that is how it works. The apps from the NMSF are “flagged” so that Admissions does not offer them a separate scholarship. When D actually applied and it took longer than expected for an answer, I emailed the NM rep and let him know that I see in the portal that all is complete and to “lmk if anything else is needed.”
His response: “I actually accepted her today…”
Notice the word “I” (??). I’m not sure how other schools handle this but if you have a NM contact, you could try touching base with a friendly email.
Good luck!
Example of McDonald’s anxiety dream.
It’s dark, and you’re laying on your back on the cold, brown tile in the back of the store. Maybe it’s where the manager’s desk is, or maybe it’s the back drive-thru window, you’re not quite sure. You’re also not sure how you ended up there. Did you somehow fall asleep on your shift and get locked in?
The timer for the fry station starts beeping. You recognize the sound. It’s a 2-4 drop, the high production pattern you use when multiple buses pull in. You can’t move. You open your eyes, but you can’t see, either. The beeping gets louder.
You hear voices. It’s packed out there. The manager is yelling, yelling about the fries. If you don’t get them soon, the first two baskets will burn, plus you only have a few minutes before the other two baskets go off, too. You know you have to empty and reload the baskets, get them back in the oil before the indicator lights hit the TWO position.
You need your uniform, specifically the pants. Somehow, you went to sleep in only the blouse and your underwear. You can’t run the fry station with no pants. You’re late, the fries are burning, and if you don’t get up and find your pants, the manager will fire you.
The second stage of the fry alarm goes off. The beeping is deafening.
*Apparently my alarm clock sounded like the fry beeper. Amazing that I still remember that dream this many years later.
Soooo my complicated financial situation has admittedly caused a little procrastination with filing the CSS Profile. One EA school has a 11/15 deadline for this. Anyone know if the CSS Profile will be received in time electronically if I finish it tomorrow? Or should I send hard copies Priority Mail? FAFSA was completed last weekend. Will that arrive in time electronically too?
PS - this place is hoppin’ today!
@stemmmm - I feel like I could have written that exact post! If D18 isn’t accepted ED, all bets are off for chances of entry into many of the schools she will apply to as thy have similar RD admit rates and like you said, D18 hasn’t shown as much interest in them. I am hesitant to put anything down on paper odds-wise since I don’t want to jinx anything!!
@droppedit - I am impressed to see you put USC at 50%. That one is a total wild card on my daughter’s list, even having great test scores/GPA/NMSF/parent alumni in our favor. When I look at the scattergrams for it, they are allllll over the map. Both my D18 CC and private CC said they have seen a ton of volatility in USC’s admits in the recent years.
@DiotimaDM Lol!! McDonald’s anxiety dream is the funniest thing I heard this week! Please tell me you wrote your essay on it
“The dream is always the same…”
“You can’t run the fry station with no pants.”
You win the internet today, or at the very least cc.
@Kayak24, they should get it in time. Even if it’s late it usually just means your FA award may come a little later. You may want to call the school and ask though.
@DiotimaDM - that is absolutely hilarious! I am definitely sharing it tonight with my kiddos for some much needed comic relief!
Until his auditions this is still complete speculation, but here go the updated odds, now that we at least know where he’s applied:
Miami(Fla)-20%
SMU-15%
USCal-15%
Furman-15%
Vandy-10%
Loyola-NO-10%
Field (UNC, Northwestern, Trinity, USCarolina, FSU, Fordham)-15%
What are the odds posts? Odds of getting in… odds of which school your child will choose? And what’s the Field?
-From the newbie
This is where we are at this time, unfortunately the field is still an option.
Arkansas-30%
Tech- 28%
OSU-15%
Field 27%
@amominaz – I looked at USC’s stats last year for the applied/admitted ACT ranges and guesstimated that 40-50% of 35+ kids were admitted. Basically, you more than double the regular chance of admission. Very shaky analysis. However, Stanford’s stats also backup the 2X+ effect for perfect scores (their rate goes from a dismal 4.8% to a slightly less dismal 12% for an 800 on SAT Math or English subscore).
@Kayak24
We had the same thought and the person we emailed was from the National Scholars program. Still no word.
@Kayak24 I got email replies almost immediately after submitting CSS online but then had to fax, mail, tax returns and w-2’s. Waiting on S18 to activate portal so I can confirm school received that piece!