Ugh, my daughter had one of those mechanical babies last night as part of her child development class.
“Grandma” woke up every time during the night, too. 8-}
The upside is that she absolutely, positively has no interest in babies for a long, long time. =))
Melvin123- my thinking is that they are busy reading the ED applications now and don’t start reading RD apps until after the ED decisions are done. It would be surprising to me if they read an RD app at this time - but I’m not there, so who knows.
Some interesting changes in the odds this month. The list shrinks a little, and the field grows.
The field includes 4 schools applied to or planned. But there is also one more in the field that may see a late application.
33% Alabama
20% ASU
17% Texas A & M
10% Oklahoma
3% Trinity San Antonio
2% U Chicago
15% The Field
If I were a bettor, and these odds paid off true, I would take the field bet.
Wow, it’s awfully late in the game to be betting on The Field! Exciting times in the Puddy house!
It’s a three horse race over here: UBC, USC, McGill. The Chicken Little in me is convinced that D didn’t fill out her applications correctly and that she’ll be shut out. D is totally zen about the whole thing, but I really need to see an acceptance from one of those three to CALM DOWN. :((
What’s up, @DavidPuddy?! Good to see a post from you and that you are alive and well, or at least alive!! ha,ha
20% Texas A & M
19% Alabama
15% ASU
10% Oklahoma (down 15%)
10% Trinity San Antonio
10% Tulane
3% Arizona
1% Chicago
1% Princeton
11% The Field (up10%)
Hmmmmm this was @DavidPuddy’s odds list back in August…TAMU is not looking good.
75% McDaniel
10% Ithaca
10% Seton Hall (possible new entry)
5% Fordham
So, obviously I went back and looked at some of the Odds posts in August. That was a fun little diversion!
I have finally accepted that my own DD’s top 5 has not changed, with the exception of the three way tie for 5th place is now a two way tie. My gut is now screaming at me…
UT-Austin would still be the hands down winner, but I have dropped the odds of her even getting in from my optimistic 4-5% to a more pessimistic 2%. (The actual chance of acceptance is .001%, she did submit the application and it is complete, it may be possible that there is a clerical error and they mistakenly accept her, lol).
I honestly don’t think that DD has any idea which school she will choose, still not entirely tangible to her yet or maybe, more accurately, I think she is trying really hard to be an ostrich.
I forget, are the odds where your kid WANTS to go or is LIKELY to go? I’m assuming the latter.
I went with likely
@MACmiracle I am glad you made it there alright!
Yep, it i the “likelihood” based on what you think and know.
“For entertainment purposes only”!
Perceptive. Two things informing this:
We are not sure what is up with #2. Not sure why our precious little Invited National Scholar does not have an acceptance when a couple classmates that submitted later do. This is OOS, so no auto admit in play. I am told the application is “complete” in the portal.
@DavidPuddy puzzling #2. I guess I assumed academic admit policy applied to OOS. (But I did just read the fine print)
Smith: 40%
CMU: 20%
Wesleyan: 15%
Wellesley: 10%
The Field: 15%
This is tough prediction. Lots of factors working here, including the mercurial teenage mind. I could be 100% wrong. 
Yep. It’s strange.
I did not vet that application at all, but DP Jr. says his submission is complete. He sent a follow up email a few days ago - no word.
Here are D18’s odds right now:
50% - USC
10% - Stanford
10% - UPenn
10% - GaTech
10% - Bama
10% - others
She would go to either USC or Stanford if she’s admitted, so the odds for them are strictly my guess at admission chances due to stats. It’ll be interesting to see where we sit in February (she hears back from S in mid-Dec and, hopefully, USC in mid-Feb).
Still boring over here. 
99.99999% UNM
00.00001% Giant meteor ends life as we know it. I might be overestimating this one.
We’re headed back to ABQ tomorrow for a re-visit. DH wasn’t on the first visit, so he and I will be doing the standard walking tour while S meets with the EMS and Honors departments. Then we’ll all tour housing again. We’ll have Saturday to play tourist, then the long drive back on Sunday.
S is swamped over here even w/o college apps still going on. Ebeneezer is on stage during every single scene in A Christmas Carol, and he has tons of lines. No getting homework done while his character is off-stage. S is also directing a one-act as part of a group final. Add your standard assortment of AP stuff, scholarship apps, and his DE class and he’s looking forward to a week off over Thanksgiving break.
I’m looking forward to second semester for him, and for all of the 2018s. I’m hoping to will be a long, celebratory coast until the finish line.
I’ve got no clue. A complete guess:
50% UC Something (B, LA, D, SD, SB, I)
35%- Field (Lots of reaches, high matches, one safety)
14.99%- CSU Something (SLO, SJSU)
0.01% Community College
@droppedit, FWIW, my D came back from her recent USC visit with the impression that the invitations for scholarship interviews go out in late Jan. I am still fuzzy as to whether all NMSFs hear something from them at that time. I know that no rejections are sent that early. Regardless, hopefully both of our Ds will get some good news soon!