@jeneric I wouldn’t hold your breath. This morning, we got an email saying regular school next week. Three hours later, we got another email saying online class for two weeks then spring break and a re-evaluation. All after school activities including sports cancelled.
Just ordered some books that D will be reading for AP Lit next year since she wasn’,t given much school work and she does love to read. There’s only so much SAT prep she can stand to do in a day, day after day. I was feeling a little guilty about spending money on books that are right down the street at our library, But got an email the moment I hit the purchase button…from our local library announcing its closure tomorrow! so now I feel fully justified, something I rarely get to experience, lol.
I think I am looking at the social distancing differently than many of you.
It isn’t really to prevent people from getting it. It is just to slow it down. The containment phase is over, it failed. Now it is just flattening the curve to give healthcare workers a chance to deal with it over an extended time period rather than all of us getting sick in the next 30 days.
That is a large part of why Italy has a high mortality rate. I don’t know the exact number, but the general scenario is that multiple patients need a ventilator for every one that is available (along with other care). So it’s like a wartime triage situation. This person might survive without it, so they don’t get one. Another may have lots of other health problems that would made recovery longer or less likely, so the tough decision is made that they don’t get a ventilator either.
I don’t think this is a 2 week issue or a 2 month issue. It is just a controlled slow down until they get effective treatment or vaccination options, or until enough of us have contracted it to establish some herd immunity.
I’m probably being less restricting, because I don’t think the point is to completely avoid it. I think contraction is somewhat inevitable, barring very restrictive social distancing for a protracted period of time. Probably that is what my frail father in law needs to do, but my kids and I don’t need to go to that extreme.
We are still avoiding large gatherings, but I’m not limiting them to just a couple friends.
Ok, just heard back from several friends and families in our school district…SAT is still on in our area…no cancellations at any of the testing locations in our vicinity.
My friend from the Boston area shared this with me:
This was posted in the parent group of a high school (Boston area) with sage and sobering advice from a public health leader and physician regarding social distancing. Names have been erased and it is missing the graphs on flattening the curve etc but that is readily available in lots of places online.
Please share.
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Hi,
I know there is some confusion about what to do next in the midst of this unprecedented time of a pandemic, school closures, and widespread social disruption. I have been asked by a lot of people for my opinion, and I will provide it below based on the best information available to me today. This is my personal and well-informed opinion, and my take on the necessary steps ahead.
What I can say as a physician and public health leader, is that what we do, or don’t do, over the next week will have a massive impact on the local and perhaps national trajectory of coronavirus. We are only about 11 days behind Italy and generally on track to repeat what is unfortunately happening there, as well as much of the rest of Europe very soon. At this point, containment through contact tracing and testing is only part of the necessary strategy. We must move to pandemic mitigation through widespread, uncomfortable, and comprehensive social distancing. That means not only shutting down schools, work (as much as possible), group gatherings, and public events. It also means making daily choices to stay away from each other as much as possible to Flatten The Curve (see below).
Our health system will not be able to cope with the projected numbers of people who will need acute care should we not muster the fortitude and will to socially distance each other starting now. On a regular day, we have about 45k ICU beds nationally, which can be ramped up in a crisis to about 93k. Even moderate projections suggest that if current infectious trends hold, our capacity (locally and nationally) may be overwhelmed as early as mid-late April. Thus, the only set of interlinked strategies that can get us off this concerning trajectory is to work together as a community to maintain public health by staying apart.
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The wisdom, and necessity, of this more aggressive, early, and extreme form of social distancing can be found here. I would urge you to take a minute walking through the interactive graphs - they will drive home the point about what we need to do now to avoid a worse crisis later.
So what does this enhanced form of social distancing mean on a daily basis, when schools are cancelled?
I can suggest the following:
- No playdates, parties, sleepovers, or families visiting each other's houses. This sounds extreme because it is. We are trying to create distance between family units and between individuals across those family units. It is uncomfortable, especially for families with small children or for kids who love to play with their friends. But even if you choose only one friend to have over, you are creating new links and possibilities for the type of transmission that all of our school/work/public event closures are trying to prevent. The symptoms of coronavirus take 4-5 days to manifest themselves. Someone who comes over looking well can transmit the virus. Sharing food is particularly risky - I definitely do not recommend that people do so outside of their family. We have already taken extreme social measures to address this serious disease - let's not actively co-opt our efforts by having high levels of social interaction at people's houses instead of the schools. Again - the wisdom of early and aggressive social distancing is that it can flatten the curve above, give our health system a chance to not be overwhlemed, and eventually may reduce the length and need for longer periods of extreme social distancing later (see what has transpired in Italy and Wuhan). We need to all do our part during these times, even if it means some discomfort.
- Take walks/runs outside, but maintain distance (ideally 6 feet between people outside your family). Try not to use public facilities like playground structures as coronavirus can live on plastic and metal for up to 3 days, and these structures aren't getting regularly cleaned. Try not to have physical contact with people outside of your family. Going outside will be important during these strange times, and the weather is improving. Go outside every day if you can but stay physically away from others. Try not to have kids play with each other (even outside) if that means direct physical contact. Even basketball or soccer involve direct contact and cannot be recommended. If people wish to go outside and have a picnic with other families, I strongly recommend keeping distance of at least 6 feet, not sharing any food at all, and not having direct physical contact. Invariably, that is hard with kids, so these shared, "distant" picnics may be tricky. Do not visit nursing homes or other areas where large numbers of the elderly reside, as they are at highest risk for complications and mortality from coronavirus. We need to find alternate ways to reduce social isolation in these communities through virtual means instead of physical in-person visits.
- Reduce the frequency of going to stores/restaurants/coffee shops for the time being. Of course trips to the grocery store will be necessary, but try to limit them and go at times when less busy. Consider wearing gloves (not medical - but perhaps washable) and of course washing hands before and after really well. Leave the medical masks and gloves for the medical professionals - we need them. Maintain social distance from folks. Take-out meals and food are riskier than making food at home given the links between the people who prepare food, transport the food, and you. It is hard to know how much that risk is, but it is is certainly higher than making it at home.
- If you are sick, definitely stay home and contact a medical professional. If you are sick, you should try isolate yourself from the rest of your family within your house as best as you can. If you have questions about whether you qualify or should get a coronavirus test, you can call you primary care team and/or consider calling the Partners Health Care hotline staffed 8AM-8PM every day - 617 724 7000, or the Massachusettes department of public health at 617 983 6800. Don't just walk in to an ambulatory clinic - call first. Obviously if it is an emergency call 911.
- We need to push our local, state, and national leaders to close ALL schools, events, gatherings, and public spaces now. A local, town by town response won't have the needed effect. We need a statewide, nationwide approach in these trying times. Contact your representative and the governor to urge them to enact statewide closures. As of today, 6 states had already done so. We should be one of them. Also urge them to fund emergency preparedness and make increasing coronavirus testing capacity an immediate and top priority.
I realize there is a lot built into these suggestions, and that they represent a real burden for many people, businesses, and communities. Social distancing is hard and may negatively impact others, especially those who face vulnerablities in our society. I recognize that there is structural and social inequity built in and around social distancing recommendations. We can and must take steps to bolster our community response to people who face food insecurity, domestic violence, and housing challenges, along with the many other social inequities.
I also realize that not everyone can do everything. But we have to try our absolute best as a community, starting today. It is a public health imperative. If we don’t do this now voluntarily, it will become necessary later involuntarily, when the potential benefits will be much less than doing so right now.
Just dropped off D21 for the SAT in the Northeast Kingdom area of Vermont. Very few teens showed up. Maybe ten teens altogether? There were well over a hundred at the last SAT she took at a more urban location in NH last fall.
D21 feels very weak. Her stomach virus two days ago was the 24 hour kind but she’s been so paranoid about making sure she was okay for this test that she barely ate anything yesterday, after the bug had passed - just a sandwich and some soup. I hope she makes it through the exam okay. She has been pushing fluids so that’s good. And she doesn’t have nor has ever had a fever. So I am not concerned she is still sick with anything. Just weak from not eating much. Other than that, she is in good spirits.
I visited my primary care physician in Cambridge, MA yesterday and was told that me and my family should now stay out of the Boston area until all this is over if possible (I live hours north of Boston but most of my doctors are in Cambridge) . She mentioned that the hospitals were starting to fill up with people with “symptoms” and that the virus was “everywhere in this area” now. That the only reason regular doctors visits were still available is because they wanted to keep people from going to the ER with questions about routine-type issues. So my kids will no longer visit their dad there - he is staying in his NH home until this is over and we will figure out a place close to us for him to see the kids. I worry though because he is dating/living with someone at that NH home who is twenty years younger who has a yoga studio and who still sees people and who likes to go out and about. He is being careful but she isn’t. I told him in an email this morning that either she shuts down her studio and stays home from now on or he can see the kids again in two or three weeks, after they both have self-quarantined. I’m sure that will go over well. Fun times.
Our SAT was cancelled late yesterday afternoon. I feel so bad for the kids who were supposed to take it, many of whom were Ds classmates.
I would love to share that post above from the doctor to my FB feed. Is there a name so I can attribute it to someone?
@Momof3B Disney is being great when it comes to canceling trips. I hope you get your money back. Also most airlines have eliminated fees for canceling, so at least hopefully you get a credit. Good luck and sorry your trip was canceled.
I am supposed to be going to Disney April 9, we are vacation club and I know they are restoring points and either refunding or changing your ticket dates. We haven’t canceled yet, we are waiting a little longer before deciding.
Extraordinarily grateful for S21’s AP Calc/AP Chem teacher. She had to be gone for several weeks last year when her dad went into hospice, and at that time she set up a system using Skype to do real-time lectures. Students could see her desktop, and she used PowerPoint slides as a whiteboard. Kids could ask questions and have discussions.
She just sent an email to parents saying she would be doing this again, and she is showing the other teachers how to set up.
@Momof3B That’s a bummer about Disney, but as a parent of a kid in the Disney College Program, I appreciate them cancelling. D18 works at a resort, so as long as people keep coming she has to work. Waiting to see what will happen on Sunday with the park closing. Disney should have closed the resorts, not allowing people to check in after Sunday, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.
There should be some refund from Disney for all of you.
D21 got the SAT in. She feels good, so hopefully we’re done! Looked like a full house; don’t think people stayed home because of the virus. Maybe scores will be faster because so many fewer test sites??? Lol
I live in a state with few reported cases. But I was talking to a pediatrician friends last night. He’s relatively sure he has seen people with it, and the closest reported case is 150 miles away. But he hasn’t tested any of them, because after asking questions about travel he knew they wouldn’t qualify for the test.
I think the advice he gives them to isolate for 2 weeks probably largely falls on deaf ears, because we have our governor giving a press conference saying that so far we have zero cases of community based infection. So they think the doctor is being paranoid. But since we can’t test anyone unless they had exposure to someone in an area acknowledging community spread, we can say we don’t have it here. The reality is that we have zero positives, out of zero tests.
The good think he said is that he thinks the mortality rate is far under what they are projecting. Because he thinks there are vast numbers of infected who don’t get tested and therefore counted until they are in the hospital with breathing problems.
He still is very in favor of all the things we are doing to prevent the spread, because without that they would quickly be overwhelmed. But he is cautiously optimistic that in the end it won’t be as bad as everyone is thinking right now.
I hope he’s right.
Back on topic our top state education official told the schools yesterday that they won’t be enforcing hour requirements or testing requirements this year. So I’m guessing if this doesn’t get better quickly we will see some schools just abruptly end the school year. I’ve told D21 to not plan on bringing up grades with a good score on a paper or final or with yet undone homework. Whatever grade is in the book at any given time could abruptly become your final grade.
D21 had four other teens taking the SAT in the same room as her. She said there was one other room for the SAT that had five teens in that one - so ten kids overall, with plenty of space between each teen. A huge difference from the tons of people crammed together last fall at a different location.
She felt weak the whole time (since she refused to eat much!) but thinks she did better on the math this time around. Math was what she needed to improve on, so here’s hoping. Once back in the car she felt relieved and ate two maple donuts and a giant thing of Ginger Ale. Then she went for a two mile walk along a quiet country road as soon as she got home. So I have no idea how she did given her lack of food and nerves, by at least she seems back to normal health-wise again.
For those of us who had the SAT cancelled and are super nervous, I thought I’d let you know I called CB and asked when kids can sign up for Aug test. They won’t have that registration available until last week of April or first week of May. I’ve already got D signed up for May and June tests but neither are great timing with APs and finals so I thought I’d get a jump on it and get her a seat for Aug but have to wait just a little bit longer. I’m so afraid May and June are going to be cancelled. Ugh.
With all the cancellations, I would imagine that SAT and ACT superscores will be a little lower for class of 2021 next fall.
@homerdog my son’s SAT was cancelled too but college board mentioned a make up is to be determined soon. The school that he was assigned to take , got closed due to virus safety and they mentioned on their website that they would talk to CB to have a reschedule option soon. So, I assume we’ll have a make up SAT maybe in a month’s time once school starts functioning? Isn’t it true? If the center was closed and a make up can not be made at that center again, then CB said it would refund the money and we need to re register. Pls let me know if my assumption is correct or not.
@Suave123 uh that’s the message we got as well but do you really think that’s going to happen?
I’m thinking it’s possible at this point that the high school kids aren’t going back to school this spring. All high schools closed here in Illinois until March 30th at the earliest but the predictions I’ve seen lately about the virus say it might peek in May. Also Illinois uses the SAT as a state wide test and there’s rumblings that the state will give a one year exception for this year’s juniors and they will not have to take that test to graduate. That makes me think D’s in-school April 14th test is in jeopardy and kids won’t be back in school by then. So I’m not holding my breath that this March test will be rescheduled.
@mm5678 The physician’s name is Asaf Bitton, MD, MPH and he’s at Harvard. If you google his name along with the word “coronavirus” or “social distancing,” you will find his article.
I am assuming that school is done for this year. Our kid’s school just started its regular 2-week spring break and was insistent that kids bring home any and all academic materials, computers, chargers, etc. It said it would “update” the kids towards the end of spring break regarding what will happen.
Our kid also reported that there was a lot of chatter on the last day about how college board is moving to make AP exams available “online.” Not sure what to make of that, but I do think school is basically over this year - the move to online learning will not be anything like regular classes and I do not think that grading will be too onerous at least at our private high school.
We feel very lucky that all standardized testing was completed by last October for our hs junior.