Wow, there is truly an impressive lack of overall pattern change from 2010 through 2022!
One thing that did stand out to me is you look down to the diagonal line, so this is kids migrating to states within their own region, they have all gone down a little bit since 2010.
This fits with other things I have seen suggesting an ongoing “nationalization” process where more kids are looking outside their home region for college.
But again it is a pretty mild effect. In fact, for every region but the Southwest in 2010, the plurality region was the same region (the Southwest sent more people to the South Central). And the exact same thing was true in 2022 (right down to the SW to South Central thing).
So regionalism is not dead, but it is a bit diminished.
And many large public schools in the south have introduced merit programs designed to entice OOS students; even with merit, OOS students are more lucrative than in-state students. At the same time, more and more donut-hole families feel like a public school with merit is the only affordable option. All of this together means more applications to schools like Alabama, Tennessee, Clemson, South Carolina, etc.
All of that said, I see very little evidence of change in attendance decisions. More applications to these schools at our HS, suggesting that students see them as options, but virtually no one actually choosing them. (The exception is HBCUs, many of which are in the south and have always been and continue to be popular.)
I don’t think there are that many 1170s applying, to be honest, but I agree with your assessment. I think those Yale kids will shift their app to Princeton. There is so much overlap there already - a lot of kids pick one out of the hat to REA to. Some will shift to the other schools as well but ED puts a little more pressure to be thoughtful about that choice. I bet Chicago will benefit from more EA apps.
I note this fits with the pattern I identified above, where the relatively large increase among Common App applications for Southern colleges, and particularly Southern public colleges, appears to be concentrated in the not-most-selective colleges.
oh, goodness–can definitely relate! Although I think since yesterday we’ve moved from “not thinking about it unless someone else brings it up” to “mute with despair about how overwhelming this is.” I have also tried suggesting that he knows and just doesn’t want to say it yet, and I feel like sometimes he agrees with me and sometimes he looks shocked at the very idea. Solidarity.
I have a S24 exact same! It’s like extensions for 5/15 due to FAFSA process (for all of his schools) were a direct gift to him to keep the suspense going and keep debating. I asked if he’s giving some more time for his WL schools to maybe have some movement? Nope, notsomuch. I personally believe he’s just paralyzed in fear/trepidation/current school IB exams and all of his alternatives are ‘good enough’, they suit him fine but nothing on the table is SO exciting that he just can’t do without. So he’s waiting for the earlier of 1) a moment he expects will give him some clarity or 2) 5/15 he’ll just have to push the button on something and pray it’s the right one
Good luck to all!
Yep! And sometimes, the OOS college w/merit scholarship can even be cheaper than attending an in-state public. Plus, there are some CTCL colleges that have great merit scholarships that can make a private school way more affordable than people realize. Those are all in the “buyer” category (using Jeff Selingo’s terminology) I think.
It’d be interesting to see the real data on who’s applying. Yale’s apps went from 27k in 2012 to 36k in 2019.
But since Covid and test optional it’s bloated up to 50k.
I remember a few years ago when schools were switching to the common app and making essays optional it clearly seemed like app farming, in an effort to tweak selectivity.
And today he got a postcard from St. Olaf that was mailed on March 20. WTH, USPS?! I hope he doesn’t get something on May 2 that totally would have affected his decision if he’d seen it in time. This postcard is from a current student and says that they chose St. Olaf because of their pre-health program and like it now because of the study abroad program they did. S’s main reason he dislikes Emory is that it’s full of pre-med/pre-law people, and one hesitation he has about St. Olaf is that musicians in the higher level ensembles can’t study abroad without losing their placement…so swing and a miss there, St. Olaf.
I called up our insurer when D got her learner’s permit inquiring about this and they said they can only add her to our insurance once she passes the road test.
You may want to check with your insurer to confirm
