This turned out to be true at our house as well.
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For the record, D24 didn’t throw in any extra schools, only applied to those she had originally planned on. But the results were really all over the place. (No matter - she would up at the place we both feel is perfect.)
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Just to wrap up, I want to note this is consistent with what I was suggesting.
There is definitely some uncertainty in selective college admissions. That is why many people apply to more than one college, and some apply to many colleges. Obviously if you have specific financial conditions that need to be met, that can add more uncertainty besides just yes/no admissions.
But the question in my mind is what is really necessary to deal with that uncertainty. And I don’t have a particular formula I am defending, but more an idea of the approach that you can take that to me, still seems to largely work–as it did in your case, and as I believe it did (with suitable modifications) in kokotg’s case and Acpurple22’s and Sammacd’s cases as well. Because I certainly believe you can do different versions of that approach that make sense for you.
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The issue in my mind is that the uncertainty in admissions has increased over time, and as a result it is rational for (most) students to apply to more schools than they would have a few years ago. As an illustration, for the class of 2018 the counselors at our school were suggesting 5-7 applications. For S24’s class, that number had gone up to 12-14. The counselors have not changed (it is literally the same group of people), and neither has the school or its typical placement record. But the admissions landscape has changed substantially.
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I think that makes sense. We are still at 8-12 being the baseline recommendation, but I believe that is also up from pre-COVID.
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After being on CC, I was surprised when D24’s counselor expressed concern over the number of colleges D24 was considering (at one point it was up to around 12, but she ended up applying to 9 (dropped the 3 most annoying and/or lowest probability applications).
I have tried to Monday morning quarterback this process, and if I had known then what D24’s driving factors were going to be at the end (studio/program/study abroad/test scores/ranking for her major + passed the vibe check), it would have shaken up the list a bit. Would it have changed the top choice? We’ll never know!
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I say this more tongue in cheek but S24’s 2 last minute add-on’s were waitlists. Put every bit as much effort into supplementals and did extra merit essays but zero demonstrated interest of any kind. It felt like they sensed it somehow.
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Yeah, I am surely overreading my own anecdotes, but S24 got only waitlists and rejections from his, and again to my knowledge none of his peers got an offer they actually wanted. Now S24’s add-ons were all very reachy, so that is not exactly evidence, but still.
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Graduation is Saturday, and D24 got her dorm assignment on Monday. She’s done everything she has to for registration next month and next week is her last AP test (make up do to being double booked with Stats).
I replaced all of her devices with Chase points since Apple was at 150% for redemptions and ordered her laptop for school. I am really trying not to get carried away with dorm stuff since she’s only going to be there one year.
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Thank you for the heads up!
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Kind of the opposite happened for us. I waited until the process was over then identified some add-ons that I thought were closer to match-reach than reach-reach and that didn’t require supplemental essays and he pretty much go into all of those except one that was one of those schools in hindsight that takes 65% of their class from ED rounds but has 90% of the applicants in the RD round. Though it was academic since he got into some of his reach-reach near the top of his personal list. But as those other add-ons decisions were coming in before their top reaches, it felt good to know he had great options.
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I think it’s only for May!
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It’s a good thing I don’t believe in signs from above as our flights are delayed and can’t get into Providence now, so rerouting to Boston with a 3am arrival in a rental car so we can still do all the things he set up for tomorrow.
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Getting all the bad luck out of the way early!
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These days it would be bad luck to not have flight delays 
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silver lining is this may be the only time there isn’t a 1-2 hour long line for a rental car in Boston. Score!
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S24 is so ready for college and would be good on Amazing Race, so calm and handling all this himself on phone. Back on original leg and bought a new flight to Philly on another airline. This is becoming a very expensive 48 hours trip to a school I know he’s going to commit to, but it’ll be a memory.
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Finally heard resolution on AP Chem test that was disrupted by 2 fire alarms. College Board determined a fair testing environment was compromised. Thankfully kids will only need to retake Section 2 and will get to do this quickly (on Weds). We do have to pay an additional $40 which seems ridiculous but completely in line with how College Board operates. Overall, thankful the kids will get the chance to have their scores count.
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Maybe they found a new source of revenue generation - they’ll start paying kids to set off the fire alarms.
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That would make me mad. Maybe the school should cover it.
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