I was looking forward to it, and hoping that we could celebrate and smash an accept button over spring break!
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Seconding this - it was really nice to have some long road trips with my kid, one on one, and I canât believe I ever considered bringing her dad and little sister along on any of them!
Our decisions (and I use the âourâ here on purpose) comes down to finances. I found this forum as a CIC-TEP eligible family, but I am also staff at my institution and not a super high earner, so a tuition waiver may not be the game changer it could be for a high earner not eligible for any aid, so that decision and whatever financial aid offers that are received will be the deciding factor.
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How did you figure the 50% likelihood of another admit?
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I feel the same. S24 already has a couple of great choices - one of them is actually a reach but I wonder how heâll do if it is a cascade of ânoâ's. Itâs got to be demoralizing even if intellectually you know that your chances arenât great. Just a bummer of a way to end the process.
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50% chance for 1 additional admit = sum of admit rates for remaining 6 schools = 10%+10%+10%+10%+5%+5%, no?
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It seems like this should make sense, but you canât make it cumulative. Each school is independent variable.
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âŠ
I think it works differently than that.
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So if the odds were actually fully independent then the math of getting admitted to none would be .9*.9*.9*.9*.95*.95, which works out to about a 59% chance of getting admitted to none, or 41% chance of getting to admitted to at least one.
However, the odds are observably not fully independent, indeed for somewhat complex reasons CANNOT be fully independent.
This means assuming your odds estimates were correct, the lower bound would be a 10% of getting admitted to at least one. But they are not fully dependent either.
So, again assuming you had the right odds estimates to begin within, the best estimate would be somewhere above 10%, but below 41%. Exactly where is extremely hard to say.
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Hereâs a statistics professor explaining the math:
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Thereâs also a 90% chance of getting denied from 4 of the 6. And 95% chance of getting denied from 2 of the 6 schools.
Each schoolâs odds of acceptance really canât be added to acceptance percentages of other schools. Itâs a common misconception that if you apply to a bunch of low acceptance rate schools that youâre bound to get into ONE of them.
No. The odds are actually quite high of getting rejected from ALL of those.
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Heard from Austin College. Should have an estimated financial aid amount by end of day today or tomorrow.
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Still waiting on 10 RD decisions (2 far reaches, 3 reach, and 5 matches). DS has two EA admits in his pocket. Iâm wondering if anyone has advice on how to encourage their child to stay open to the remaining RD options. It seems like my DS has already emotionally bonded with one of the schools that accepted him EA and has now lost all interest in the upcoming RD decisions. Will his enthusiasm for the RD schools return once those decisions start rolling in? His EA school was in his top 4 at the early stages of applying and touring, but as soon as he was accepted to the schoolâs honors program, it became his âdream school.â Seems a bit irrational. Is this a common EA phenomenonâkids becoming extremely loyal toward EA schools before the RD decisions arrive?
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He should just take the rest on a Service Merchandise gift certificate. 
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We are in about the same place. Only waiting on one more admission acceptance but three more tuition exchange decisions. 
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The first problem is that itâs really difficult to figure out what acceptance probability you should assign to yourself. And the second problem is each event is not independent.
Just because Stanford has a 4% acceptance rate, you canât assume thatâs your acceptance rate for example. For most students, it will be much lower than that.
If there is a fatal flaw in your application - applying for a CS major but never done any EC on CS, then the results could be the same across all the schools.
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Your son feeling attached to one of his acceptances sounds totally normal to me, and is probably healthy. I am sure his feelings will change when he has additional, REAL acceptances. But, most likely they just seem hypothetical to him right now.
Anecdotally, my S24 applied to a safety with rolling admissions in August and was accepted. At that point, he asked me if he could just be done and go there. That school remained in his âtop 4â for months . . . until he started getting acceptances at other schools. At this point, he doesnât even have any interest in visiting early safety school, and it is almost certainly out of the running. I think he was just loving the one that loved him back, and he never seriously considered anything else to be an option until he was accepted.
So . . . I think your sonâs attitude is fantastic! Let him be happy with the ones he already knows love him, and donât be surprised if receiving love from his RD schools changes his mind.
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We are waiting for 16, donât fret. 
Accepted to UNC, rejected UVA, deferred UM and Dartmouth. Fingers crossed. Best to all.
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For those of you considering Southern schoolsâI present our best PR. Currently walking down the sidewalk in GAâ73 degrees F.
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Yes! It is glorious in the south right now! Azaleas blooming everywhere, green trees, highs in 70s and 80! This is the best time in Southeast. But I do not recommend it at all June-September 
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âDonât touch the RED!â