This is the money quote. Every kid is different and where in the process they discover what they want is different. It isn’t one size (or school) that fits all.
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We got to 5 apps (older kid had 7). It helped that kiddo choose non-popular major and was not interested in T20 schools. Kiddo also chose our local community college as their safety. So far, 4 acceptances and all would be great fits.
It’s possible but not for everyone. We had a pretty good idea on decisions based on deep dives into the acceptance rates by major at each school and our own school’s history at each place. It also helps to have high stats and bonus of not being from a competitive school that may get dinged for perceived over representation.
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Our S24 applied to 5. When he started apps in the Fall there were 8 on the list, but when he got a couple acceptances in the Fall that he really liked (and after writing a bunch of essays already) decided he wasn’t as interested in the last 3 that he would have applied to in late December.
I will caveat–that our process was colored by privilege. We did not have to struggle to find financial safeties that also met all the other goals. Honestly the last 3 (that he didn’t apply to) would have been the most expensive and the least likely to give merit $. If you are only looking for academic and social fit (without the financial part), it is easier to apply to fewer places.
Second caveat–S24’s favorate school from the time we started this process was his truest safety. Based on stats alone we knew he would get into the school and his chosen major. I have a friend’s D22 that was the same way–based on a really unique facet of a very specific major, one of the top schools in the country for her program was a slam dunk safety that was going to offer her $. She only appled to 3 schools. Maybe the key here is to do a lot of research up front to find the amazing major department housed in a safety university? Or maybe we just got lucky!
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In discussing the number of applications, I think that a lot depends on the type of applications.
Applying to 20 colleges where there’s one state flagship and then 19 schools that all have admit rates below 20% is the type of thing that people are generally taking issue with. But applying to more schools where the app is simple (think most state school apps) and legitimately no extra essays needed (i.e. not the schools that say the essays are optional but it really means you’re eliminated if you don’t do them), or at the most, one extra why-us essay.
But there are certainly situations where people can reasonably have a larger application list.
- Family lives in probably half of the geographic U.S. where there aren’t a ton of colleges within close proximity. Visiting large, medium, and small schools along with urban, suburban, small town, etc is a financial hardship (and this can include people who are in areas that are more college-dense). Similarly, a student is extremely undecided and sees the benefits of a variety of possibilities. Since they don’t know yet, they might apply to more schools with different characteristics, so that when the time comes, they will hopefully have a school they like.
- Kid wants a competitive major as a direct admit (nursing, music performance, architecture, etc.)
And I’m sure there are other possibilities, too. But I’ll be hoping that my kid applies to a small, curated list of schools. We’ll see how that goes!
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You’ll probably have encyclopedic knowledge of all US schools by the time your children are ready to apply. 
Your research into schools is unparalleled! 
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I don’t know if this is helpful to all, but it certainly helps me.
I do believe that we meet people that we are supposed to meet and are put in situations/places where we are exactly supposed to be. It is part of my spiritual belief system and helps me make sense of things are are completely unpredictable like this admissions process.
S21 went through so many ups and downs during the admissions process (and even after getting admitted to his LAC initially), but now cannot imagine being anywhere else and is thriving.
My husband and I went to Ivy equivalents in our birth country. I care about the ranking system, while my husband does not the least bit. His stance has (in hindsight, and he is not on CC so I’ll admit) been very grounding for kids in our ultra competitive school district. It is not a very popular stance obviously here.
Time/data will tell in the future as no one knows truly what works/what doesn’t!
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I have been thinking about The Cliff during this process also. My D24 was my high stats kid and this has been a crazy and tough process. My D27 thinks school is meh 
, but is an athlete. It will be our first (and last) go at recruiting. Will be interesting to see how the cliff affects that.
I pretty much feel like nothing I learned from S18 and S19 helped my D24 and nothing I learned from D24 will help D27.
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How do you know
What the admissions offers look like?
The article posted just upthread speaks in one section to this i.e. the way the target has moved and continues to move quickly, and how too many people in the system (parents, kids, CCs too) are using what amounts to bad (outdated) data to create their lists.
ETA: in fact, this dynamic is one of the stated reasons that our school’s CCO does not allow kids and parents direct access to Naviance. People see that stuff and just get the wrong idea. They’ll show it to you if you ask, and sit with them. But it’s at that point that they’ll say quite explicitly not to use it to ascribe any sort of predictive power. At least not affirmatively predictive. If you want to use it to predict a rejection, that’s totally fine 
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Even if I did have such encyclopedic knowledge, the odds of a teenage adolescent giving their parent’s advice strong consideration isn’t something I’d want to bet on. Considering that my spouse has been a truly devoted (and vocal) Michigan fan his whole life and our oldest has been a devoted Ohio State fan since about age 3 or 4, I’m not optimistic for my chances.
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My S24 definitely ended up with way more than necessary (15) for any strategic purpose, but his was another case of legit uncertainty (still unresolved) about what he really wants. It is almost like he had two separate lists of targets/reaches, LACs and universities.
So yeah, I am still anti-shotgun, but I have a new appreciation for how lists can grow for a variety of other reasons. Which seem to make sense in December, at least.
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S24 graduates in eight weeks.
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Complaint: I have a very nice Negroni going you almost made me spit out!
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I was thinking it was pretty early for a Negroni and then realized you’re many time zones ahead. It’s definitely 5:00 somewhere! 
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I love your deep analysis and share your perspective. My kid applied to many more than he intended due to unpredictability - he did not take approach of applying to all top (pick your number -10, 15, 20?) USNWR colleges that some did (and i don’t fault others for doing that if that is what they want). But he did apply to more schools in each category (merit potential, lac, publics with national reach/network, and mid-sized “elites” that he thought were a good fit) than he ideally would have liked as he couldn’t be sure of any of them. He had strong opinions of schools that would be a good fit or not that i laughed about a little. I feel like he based those opinions on little real knowledge (more just based on general perceptions) and that many, many schools could end up being a good fit based on what happens when he gets to any particular school.
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I had very different application experiences with D22 and D24. D22 was coming out of a therapeutic HS and only wanted to be in the NYC metro area. She applied to 7 and was accepted at 5. She quickly decided that Manhattan College was a match for her and the decision was made in December. Luckily she has totally bloomed there and it has been a perfect fit.
I was excited to go through the process with D24 because I knew she was open to a much wider geographic area and I thought it would fun to go see all of the schools etc. She applied to 11 and was accepted at 10. Some of the decisions came with caveats such as a satellite campus for year one, or not accepted to the business school but accepted to liberal arts etc. We narrowed things down and worked from there. Just as we were making a decision, one of her top schools accepted her to the business school totally throwing a wrench in the works! I have been to some of these schools multiple times, have put down a deposit on one that she is no longer interested in, and have just been trying to help with the anxiety around her decision. While I am very happy we are not waiting for any other RD decisions at this point, I did think that we would have a decision by now! Back to Binghamton on Friday and I do think that will be it - but it has not been the more enjoyable process that I had hoped it would be. LOL But I do think she will end up at the best school for her in the end - I do think these things have a way of working out.
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Mine did something similar. She only applied to one school that we have not visited. She selected schools that she felt she would be happy attending and living for four years. Her list ended up a crazy mix but she doesn’t know what major she wants. She had one true safety (accepted honors college with merit), a low target (accepted honors college with merit), one target (accepted EA), and 11 reaches (accepted 2, waitlisted 1, waiting on 8). The two reaches where she was accepted are in her top 5 so she is very excited but her school counselor was very blunt about the fact that any reach is unlikely. She applied to all of the ones that she genuinely wanted to attend. I wouldn’t call that a shotgun, although others may. She just truly felt happy with all 11 and wanted the best shot at getting into one of them. Now the next week and a half aren’t so scary, even though her true favorite is still out there. 
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I wisely started practicing drinking on Scotland time long before we arrived . . . .
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I’m glad we’ve agreed you don’t have to die on the hill! It’s fine to just hang out on the hill. The key for me is balanced, targeted, and sincere … with a splash of intention and connection. I’m certainly not saying luck isn’t a part of it. I’m lucky to be typing now! My four kids are quite different from each other, and you and I both have an awful lot of higher ed experience, but my experience as a parent of a prospective is limited. I’ve got D24, D25, S27 and (begins counting on fingers) D33! At this moment, I’m anti-shotgun. I enjoyed your response, and I agree with this immensely, and reckon I always will: “I’m looking out for my own kids the way colleges are looking out for their own best interests as far as budget and yield and rankings and all that”
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My last one is DS…31…the only thing I know for sure is that any knowledge I’ve gained from the first three will be completely useless by then, given how fast things change!
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