In our fairly lucky case, I had an inkling rural would have value for reaches – though I was more anxious about all the rural limitations – and thankfully D24 applied. Four other really talented and hard working students have comparable results (through an ED approach), but all of those parents went to college themselves, and weren’t gonna under match. The drift of the HS and (and MS, and community) is definitely anti-higher ed. Roughly 60-75% enter the workforce immediately, and very few apply to top 50 schools. Zero colleges came to visit. Zero. Students are bussed once a year to a bigger high school 40 minutes away, and the top college to visit there would probably be … UAlbany? A good option for sure, but hardly representative of what’s out there. In our state (VT) the NMF cut off is a little lower, and SATs become super overvalued, because little else (besides scant AP) could give a college a decent comp.
Yes, finding affordable true likelies is the part that has seemed even tougher to me this time than when I did this 5 years ago. We, of course, have less data and history to go on, too, as homeschoolers. With my oldest kid, we found the results very predictable at schools above around a 25% acceptance rate (*except for Kenyon. But honestly I was able to predict the unpredictable with Kenyon, because I already knew they had a reputation for being VERY need-aware and caring a whole lot about demonstrated interest); this year that number seems more like 50%–which leaves a lot fewer options when you’re targeting schools that meet need (and, returning to my earlier very long post, requires more applications to end up with a good range of choices).
In the tentative conclusions list (and this will all be useless to me if the notorious demographic cliff finally gets here to help my youngest), I’d say that visiting seemed to make an even bigger difference to schools that consider demonstrated interest this year. Hearsay, but I heard from someone who knows someone in the admission office at one very selective New England LAC that if it comes down to a choice between a kid who visited and a kid who didn’t, they go with the kid who visited every time. Which gets me riled up, because, of course, that’s a lot harder for a low income kid than a wealthy kid, generally speaking. Of course, said school is need-aware, so they make no secret that they give preference to full pay kids anyway. But this is also a school that’s sitting on one of the lowest pell percentages in the country, so it struck me as particularly tone-deaf (if true–hearsay!)
Also upsetting considering that most of the very selective schools say they don’t consider demonstrated interest in admissions decisions….
It would depend on the very selective school.
Some very selective schools do track DI.
But there are so many ways to show this interest other than visiting. I know my kid got in ED to his LAC because he reached out to the music department, interacted with the teachers, we visited but he could have done a zoom lesson instead and of course the intensive arts supplements that include a what will you add to our department supplement.
to be fair, this one does say they consider demonstrated interest
My kid spent a ton of time demonstrating interest in all the free ways (online info sessions and tours, interviews, virtual lessons, etc)…which is why it was disturbing to me that the quote I heard specified preference for kids who’ve “visited.” Again, small data set, but my observations about his acceptances and waitlists/rejections so far at schools that consider interest suggests that visiting “counts” the most as well.
In the spirit of anticipating our imminent return to something approximating real life, I wanted to say how proud I am of my D24 for seeking out and getting a job at a local ice cream shop. Her dad didn’t want her to get a job before school was out at all–but she quit an extracurricular a few weeks ago, and has the time to spare. I love to see her joining the real world!
I’m reading the DI differentiator for a “selective NE LAC” with my Mainer lens - I can see the visit = “so you know what you’re getting into if you are accepted to this school that is not easy to get to and not easy to leave.”
Are you amazed, as much as I am how much our young ones have grown the past year ? I was thinking last night how far D24 has come. His maturity level when deciding on the results that have come in and how he tries to accommodate our concerns- I am blown away.
This may seem like bragging to others but I am sure this group will understand. I am just happy, very happy about the young man he has become and will be confident about the decisions he will make (even if I may disagree) when he sets off to college.
I lurk here and don’t post much but Reading about all the kiddos here fills me with joy - All the best to each and everyone of them. I am sure this class will go on to do wonderful things.
I was discussing this with S18 last week, as our neighbor’s kid was unexpectedly admitted to UCLA after expecting to attend SDSU. So we are definitely seeing much more randomness with both positive and negative surprises. But at least a slight tendency for more girls to get positive surprises and more boys to get negative surprises now UCs are test blind.
Back in 2018 S was told by his HS guidance counselor that he only needed to apply to UCLA and UCB, not any other UCs, because with his profile he’d get into both (which he did). He doesn’t think anyone would be given that advice any more.
I hear you- mine started really taking the initiative and staying on top of everything all of a sudden with regards to college stuff. He has been checking his college email daily, got his health portal all set up, scheduled himself a doctor’s appointment to get a health screening he needed for the college, uploaded the results to his portal, etc., etc. He has reached out to several incoming freshman and made connections, found a roommate, etc. Just a huge shift.
We were definitely disappointed with UC results so far. 3rd tier UC school results are matching the expectation. However, 2nd tier UC results are more random than I expected. I don’t think it’s UCLA and UCB anymore, the not able to to predict expanded into UCI/UCSD/UCD/UCSB. It seems to be true especially for the kids who does really well, but not exceptional and top of the class.
Fantastic! I hope he gets into all 3… well, that’ll make your decisions harder, but it’s a good problem to have 
Good luck!
Agree. DI could have impacts beyond yield. Has anyone seen data from colleges who report higher retention rates from students who had visited campus prior to committing? I wonder if that is tracked?
I’m sure it’s tracked–schools buy software to help them predict yield, so I’m sure that factors in. Of course it’s IDEAL to visit colleges before applying, but it’s also prohibitively expensive for many families.
So for Penn State over the last four cycles (classes of 2020-23), SCOIR draws the 75% line at 1490, 50% line at 1400, and the 25% line at 1240. For the three cycles before that (2017-19), it was 1460/1370/1240. Not all these people would have reported, it is just what they actually had. But it indicates an advantage to higher scores if available to report, and not necessarily less of an advantage than before.
By the way, there is a real “problem” in that there is clearly a positive but imperfect correlation between GPAs and test scores. Still, it appears from the scatter that both are having some impact.
If he gets into Yale, I am pretty sure he is going there. So that would be nice for the certainty. Anything else means total chaos, but obviously in a good way.
For that matter, it is already total chaos, and I am now reading every nuance of intonation and body posture like this is the final table of the World Series of Poker. I kinda think I know where he is currently leaning, but I don’t trust that enough to be really confident, so we shall see.
As far as I am concerned, brag away! Maturity is not a zero sum game, and particularly with young people, I think the ones who reach a good maturity level, about this or anything else, are vital role models for just slightly younger kids, or even peers still struggling to get to that place.
So not only should you brag without qualm, I am convinced spreading stories about the kids who have matured during the process is actually a public service.
Fellow homeschooler here. I was kind of shocked my kid was accepted to Kenyon this cycle. They demonstrated zero interest, but we are a full-pay family (other than merit aid) so maybe that tipped the scales in our favor.