Perhaps so, but it definitely feels different to me than 5 years ago and makes me again think that applying widely to a lot of schools makes sense right now for a lot of kids. Definitely not complaining–he has terrific choices! It’s reminding me that the deciding stage isn’t actually any easier than the waiting for decisions stage!
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By the way, as I understand our HS’s standard model, you are supposed to apply to 8-10 schools total, with at least 2 Likelies and the other 6-8 roughly balanced between Targets and Reaches. And the central expectation is you will get admitted to both of your Likelies, and 1-2 of your Targets, and 0-1 of your Reaches.
I gather some kids/parent don’t like hearing 0 Reaches is a strong possibility, but if you use the right definitions for most kids that is just the way it is–the idea applying to a lot of Reaches will guarantee you one panning out cannot be true in practice, so it is not.
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Of course many factors in the mix (as you say, definitely not just FA/need-aware admissions at work), but our experience last year showed a similar pattern.
Using your buckets, our kid was accepted at
admission rates <20%: D23 accepted at 75% (9 for 12)
admission rates 20%-50%: D23 accepted at 37.5% (3 for 8)
admission rates >50%: D23 accepted at 100% (2 for 2)
On its own, the 20%-50% bucket isn’t astounding - her acceptance rate is right there in the 20%-50% range, and she did have choices - albeit choices that were more expensive than those in the <20% bucket.
What was surprising to us last year, and what I think you’re getting at with your S this year, was how much better she did in the <20% bucket than in the 20%-50% bucket, and she had a long enough list of schools that it didn’t seem flukey. All schools, from likely to highest reach, were chosen with strong fit in mind, interest was demonstrated everywhere, etc.
Obviously this can’t be happening to everyone or the acceptance rates in the <20% bucket wouldn’t be <20%. 
But this seems to be a pattern that some unhooked strong students with financial need have been seeing the last few years, and if your kid falls into that category (has the stats/ECs/essays/LORs to have a shot at the reach-for-all schools but can’t, of course, count on getting into even one; will be expensive for a school to admit/enroll; likes the LACs), it’s helpful, I think, to be aware of this possible pattern when building the list (particularly for those of us without access to knowledgeable college counselors or lots of Naviance/Scoir data points, etc.) Nobody else at my kid’s high school applied to (or had even heard of) most of the schools on her list, so she wasn’t getting guidance from anyone but me and the CC-community. We all did well by her, and she doesn’t regret writing all those essays.
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Congrats to the neighbor’s kid; it’s a flex this year for sure. UC admissions have been the most competitive yet.
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Back on this thread to report some good news we received last week: D24 awarded the TE scholarship at RIT! She had previously narrowed down her decision to just two contenders - RIT and Stevens, but knew that TE had to be in place at either for them to remain in play. She got it at both 
We are headed up to RIT the first weekend in April for two days of events (Women in Engineering retreat on Friday and Accepted Student Day on Saturday). After that, it will be decision time.
Really not sure which way she is leaning (she has kept pretty mum about it once she eliminated the other three acceptances). I think I’m hoping she (still) loves and chooses RIT, as it has a slight edge over Stevens in my mind. Either way, I feel great that she has two excellent choices she is excited about.
Overall, I feel great about the application strategy we executed on. One safety, 3 matches and 1 “reachy match”. In the end, she got in everywhere, and all 5 would be financially doable for us. I really have to thank the many CC posters who advised me along the way (special shoutout for @AustenNut ).
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D25’s two rejections were Midwest … one that looked targety, and one that was a reach. Was accepted to NE schools …
We live in the mid-Atlantic, for what it’s worth. Just saying that individual experiences may vary, even given your solid advice.
I agree with your point in general terms, though, and would go further: Midwestern schools are WAY under-regarded by high-school families on the coasts, and many rankings (maybe some link there). There are some phenomenal LACs that don’t get the volume of applicants that their quality would suggest, from schools widely known but still “under-applied” and “under-ranked” in my eyes (Oberlin, Grinnell, Carleton, etc.) to schools that are somewhat more obscure, but really high quality (from Beloit to Wooster to Lawrence to St. Olaf to Kalamazoo to Earlham, etc. ) to schools that are considerably more obscure, but still very high quality (Wittenburg, Luther, Gustavos Adolphus, etc)
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I’m with you - but the useful data point that we don’t have - how many WL students did they have to ask before they got their 10 yes’s? That might be what drives the 2,000… though I still think it looks excessive!
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Just to be clear, I am not suggesting if you apply to targets and reaches in less popular markets in the Midwest that you are guaranteed to get accepted to all of them! More just that the results are less likely to be confounded by things like yield protection.
But that just implies a normal amount of uncertainty about how you will do if your application is competitive but not a lock. Which may still often mean not getting accepted even if you were competitive.
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Is it not tied directly to endowment size?
I’d say that it is not tied ONLY to endowment size. Some smaller endowment schools still give surprisingly good aid, and some larger endowment schools are stingier than one might expect.
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I emailed UCLA and they said (and should be assumed for all CA colleges) said stick with FAFSA. As long as we submitted before their deadline, it’s not late if FAFSA is delayed due to the issues they have been having. Looks like FAFSA processed for both of my kids. Now, figuring out how to add UCLA to D24’s school.
Having looked at a lot of operating budgets, there are indeed many other revenue variables besides endowment income and net tuition (tuition and mandatory costs net of grants, which determines the overall generosity of aid). Other major revenue sources can include gifts for current operations (so not filtered through the endowment), research and other outside grants, and net revenues from various other operations (book publishing, facilities rentals, and so on).
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Also how we did it/tried to do it. But, targets were hard to find. So more likelies (4) and two closer reaches and 5 reachy-reaches. So, it worked, he has great choices and got in at 7 schools so far which is exciting.
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I know a huge problem for people on the west coast, at least where I live in a coastal city, is that they don’t want to go to the midwest or south because the laws there are so much more restrictive. My child is trans and all of his friends are allies or LGBTQ and are all incredibly aware of the anti-trans legislation in the middle of this country. That’s enough to put off all of them from applying. There’s also great concern about reproductive freedom in many states, and especially the south. There are some careful applications in Chicago, Michigan, and Minnesota, but that’s it. I do hear about a few people applying to schools in Ohio, and Ohio has great schools. But I doubt they will be the ultimate choices when these kids can go to school in New York, Connecticut, California, VT, Washington, Oregon, Michigan, and Hawaii and not have to worry about safety and their civil rights. Also, many Californians stay in state for instate tuition, obviously, but among those of us who have students who want to go somewhere new for new experiences, it’s rare that they head to the midwest, maybe more just the cis het guys, from what I see, who are less personally & directly impacted by the laws being passed.
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As someone who lives in a state where the rights of Trans kids (and tbh, all public school kids, from K through college) are under attack, I think this is a very valid point. My nonbinary kid never even considered applying to any schools here, not just because the state is hostile to their existence, but also because our legislature has been increasingly intrusive into the day-to-day running of our state universities.
C24 has been admitted to two private schools in Ohio and the state’s political outlook is definitely part of their calculus. Though I will say, we’re taking hope from last year’s Ohio ballot referendum on abortion and this year’s efforts to fight gerrymandering.
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Those of us in the states you’re talking about are also thinking about these issues; S24 and I were just talking last night about how some of his options are more attractive than others for those reasons. It’s much less a personal safety issue for my kid than a lot of kids, but it’s still very much on his radar.
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I have posted similar sentiments on CC before. The issue to me is not so much local environment—I absolutely believe that Oberlin is incredibly progressive and that LGBTQ+ students feel welcome/at home there—but rather political power. Ohio has laws in place that are hostile to LBGTQ+ people. It doesn’t matter to me how welcoming the people of Oberlin are if my child or his friends could face legal restrictions or consequences because of their sexuality or gender. It’s a matter of safety and freedom. (I don’t have girls but feel the same way about reproductive health; I could not send a girl to school in a state where her ability to get life-saving emergency care for an ectopic pregnancy is in question or where a miscarriage could subject her to intrusive questions from the state.)
I say this coming from one of the most progressive places in the country (not California), so my perspective is shaped by that; my LGBTQ+ child enjoys both a welcoming and friendly community AND significant legal protection. If we lived in a place that had anti-LGBTQ+ laws on the books and was hostile, I could see how Oberlin would be an improvement. And I absolutely recognize that many LGBTQ+ kids are coming from less-than-ideal environments, in some cases without parental support, and don’t have the options that my child has, in which case a scholarship to a friendly school in a state with hostile laws is an unmitigated blessing.
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I can completely understand why an applicant would not want to go to certain states.
As a counterpoint though, our private school outside of Portland (and our local public) sends loads of kids to Texas and Arizona and also to California and Colorado, many kids look at all of them.
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As a Texas parent, I hear you and support your kid’s/ friend’s decisions. That said, there are non-binary/ trans/ LGBTQA students all over Texas, who stay here for all sorts of reasons. The government is hostile, the students are not and allies are needed everywhere.
I have two daughters - one who is staying in Texas and one who is leaving- and we’ve had conversations about how to get health care and how to (safely) help friends get health care. All students in all states should be empowered to help others.
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