I haven’t commented on this thread, but I have been following along. I’m not going to address the topic of what you should do next school year. I will, however, talk about how I tend to chance students and what kind of schools I think you might have your best shot for.
When chancing a student, I tend to sort schools into these categories:
- Extremely Likely (80-99+%)
- Likely (60-79%)
- Toss-Up (40-59%)
- Lower Probability (20-39%)
- Low Probability (less than 20%)
I first look at a school’s admission rate. If the admissions rate is below 20%, then it almost always will stay in the low probability category, no matter how amazing the student’s record, simply because the vast majority of awesome applicants are denied at these schools.
If a school accepts less than half of its applicants, GPA will tend to play a bigger role. If a student has below a 3.5 GPA, then it’s important to look at the Common Data Set in terms of the relative importance of factors in admission (C7) and C11 which shows the breakdown of the GPAs.
I looked up Bryant (well known for its business programs) on the College Board’s website. On the admissions tab, it shared this GPA info which typically pulls from C11 (source). The fact that 15% of the students it accepted had a GPA below your GPA range, is GREAT news for you.
If a school accepts 25% or fewer of its applicants in or below a student’s GPA, then I will drop that school down one category of likelihood (i.e. from a likely to a toss-up). If a school accepts 10% or fewer of its applicants in or below a student’s GPA, then I will drop that school down two categories of likelihood (i.e. from a likely to a lower probability). If a school accepts less than 5% of its applicants in or below a student’s GPA, and they are not a recruited athlete or have a Nobel or Oscar, then I would probably drop the applicant’s likelihood down by three categories (i.e. from a likely to low probability).
Neither Dartmouth nor Bentey completed the GPA sections, but both schools completed C7.
For Dartmouth, all academic components (rigor, class rank, GPA, test scores) are considered very important (Dartmouth’s SY23-24 CDS). GPA being marked as very important is not good for you.
At Bentley, rigor is very important, GPA is important, and standardized test scores are considered (Bentley’s SY23-24 CDS). The fact that rigor is very important (moreso than GPA) will benefit you, but the fact that GPA is more important than standardized test scores will not.
.
But right now you might be saying, “What about my SAT score?”
If a student’s test scores are above the 75th percentile for a school, then I will usually bump the school up one category in terms of likelihood. If it is WAY above the 75th percentile (like 150-200+ points), then I would move it up two categories. The same thing happens in reverse if a score is below the 25th percentile.
GPA can move a students chances further down (3 levels) than a way above average for the school’s tests can move it up (2 levels). Why? If a school makes a distinction between GPA and test scores in importance, GPA will almost always be more important.
Your test score is competitive to get into a school with a sub-20% acceptance rate. But the other aspects of your application will be decreasing your odds significantly as compared to the rest of the applicant pool at these schools with very low admission rates.
For most of the schools with an admissions rate below 50%, your GPA will probably bring you down 2-3 levels in terms of chances. Your SAT score will probably only pull you up 1 level, maybe 2 (depending on the school). So most schools that have an acceptance rate of 40-60% will probably be either a low or lower probability school for you. Schools with an acceptance rate of 20-40% will be no more than a low probability. Schools with an acceptance rate below 20% would be extremely improbable to receive an acceptance.
I have more to say, but I’ll separate it into a separate post.
never heard of a more 100% admit ever