Please help with chances and application strategy (ED or RD)

I have one kid at Tufts and one at BC. They are both happy where they are, but they are very different schools. Are you sure you would be happy at either? I think you would have a good shot at getting into BC if you apply ED (preferably ED 1). If you wait until RD, your chances go down a lot because at least half the slots are filled during the ED round. Tufts has just gotten really difficult to get into without a hook no matter what round you apply in - same with ND (although you are obviously very well qualified for both). Don’t know much about Middlebury, but I think your chances of getting in ED would be better than at Tufts or ND.