I don’t think there’s much of a bump in the ND REA round vs RD, especially if you aren’t coming from a Catholic feeder school.
I would choose your favorite school for your ED/REA and not try to guess chances. I don’t think your chances at Tufts/Midd/BC are 75% in ED, would think BC chances are highest. I do agree that your chances in the RD round at any of those schools are much lower than ED, likely single digit chances, at least at Tufts and Midd.
How is it that you are not in the top 10% of your class with a 3.98 uw GPA? Does your school report rank? If so, that will be a bit of a disadvantage. OTOH, IB is generally an advantage.
Why aren’t you taking math and English senior year? Will you be submitting an art portfolio/supplement with your apps?