OP is a CA resident, no? That’s why the UCs stay on the list. IMO, there is a huge difference between applying in-state to CA schools vs. picking a National Merit school. It’s not just about money, and size is not a black and white criteria people use to pick schools. Every year, I see CA kids who think they want to go out of state end up picking the best UC they get into. Because it’s closer to home, because they offer a program they are excited about, because their best friend goes, because they go to admitted students day and have a good time … keeping them on the list is kind of a no-brainer if you are a CA resident (even if you don’t think you want to go to one when you apply in November). OP’s D’s stats are very strong and while the UC admissions can be wildly unpredictable, I can’t imagine that she won’t get into at least one. And SDSU/LB are common CSU backup picks for CA kids who worry about the UC’s “holistic” admissions… no essay/PIQs required.
OP: I know ED is tempting (my S26 is going to shoot his shot at an Ivy) but maybe stick to EDI for the super-favorite, no-regrets school and let things play out a bit before deciding on an EDII? You don’t have to decide now, or even have a school in mind. By then your D may have a strong take, or she may want to let the regular decisions come in and see what happens.
Just my 2 cents!