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<p>You probably should; the Rangers are the clear favorites and I would sincerely doubt that too many analysts or pundits outside the Bay Area have pegged the Giants to actually prevail in this series. If you go on ESPN.com, out of a dozen “insiders,” the consensus is that the Rangers will win.</p>
<p>Moreover, if you plug the relevant statistics into a match-up simulator like AccuScore, it has Texas winning 57% of the time, which almost perfectly correlates to Texas winning the series in seven. However, statistics and imitation software don’t play the actual games. If statistics supposedly dictated results, Buster Douglas would never have knocked out Mike Tyson and the U.S. certainly wouldn’t have won the hockey gold in 1980. And perhaps to a greater extent than any of America’s four major sports, baseball is a completely erratic game, particularly when the sport is played at a high level of talent. Teams like the Pirates (one of the worst baseball squads in recent memory) could easily sweep the Phillies (objectively the best team in the league heading into the postseason) on any given weekend. </p>
<p>In my opinion, the first game is essentially a toss-up. Cliff Lee might be the better postseason pitcher statistics-wise (not to mention his status as the media’s darling) and even if it’s assumed that he’s better than Lincecum in terms of overall talent, that advantage is clearly erased given that Game 1 is played at AT&T Park. (The Rangers are 0-9 in the complex.) If the Giants win the first game, and take the second as they should with Cain pitching, the Rangers will have already burrowed themselves in a 2-0 deficit. But the first two games will most likely be split. </p>
<p>Regarding location, the San Francisco ballpark really is a quite sizable advantage for the Giants. In right field, you need to cover the gap in order to prevent triples, and long-range hits (primarily by left-handed batters) carom rather unconventionally off the wall. Of the hits that I’ve seen, opposing right-fielders make dolts of themselves attempting to defend the area. And given that the two leagues are so insulated (interleague play is sparse), the Rangers certainly won’t be well acquainted with that aspect of the ballpark. If Texas’ managing was smart, it would relegate Guerrero to pinch-hitting duties on the road in favor of a more uptempo-ed fielder, which would, in turn, solve the DH issue.</p>
<p>Of course, there is the standard charge that the Giants can’t possibly win because of the incessantly bedeviling issue of run support for their pitching. Although San Francisco often has difficulty getting players on base and advancing them to convert runs, their most likely offensive threat is the long ball. While the Giants truly do not have any high-profile hitters, they can hit anywhere from 1 to 8 in the order. In fact, the Giants have hit more home runs from the 7 and 8 spots than any other team in the National League. The Giants have the weaker offense – that’s indisputable – but their bats are always inclined to ascend to the level of competition, just as they did against the Phillies. </p>
<p>Some interesting statistics:
[ul]
[li]Twelve of the last thirteen teams that have taken Game 1 of the World Series have proceeded to win the series. (The exception was last years’ Yankees.)</p>[/li]
<p>[li]Teams in the NL who have won the NLCS on the road and subsequently possess home-field advantage in the World Series (as the Giants have this year) are 11-0 in the WS.</p>[/li]
<p>[*]The Giants have won seven playoff games. Six of them have been by one run. [/ul]</p>