Another point of confusion for anyone digging up past data, is that in 2012 or so, they switched how they reported percentiles from previously doing a sampled estimate of the current class, to actual data from the year prior. This makes it difficult to summarize. I made an Excel spread sheet two years back, but looking at it now, I’m even confusing myself.
That said, the last commended cut I have logged is from the 2014 report, which was for the class of 2016, and had data from the class of 2015. ( @mathyone has the understatement of the year with the post about deliberately obscuring data!) So class of 2015 had the following data:
Although we do have cuts for the following year (I believe commended was 202?), we don’t have that “history” that typically would have come out with this year’s reports. If anyone gets a brochure titled “Understanding 2015 PSAT/NMSQT Scores”, that will add new insights.
CB Rep said they could not manually link my D’s account, even though she could see the issue. She also could not retrieve the Access Code. “Wait for the email, sorry.”
Hi guys, I got my scores today and I got a 1420 composte (680 R/W and 740 Math)… I got a score selection index of 210. I live in Tenn. Can someone break it down for me and tell me my chances please? Thank you
What also seems screwy is that I repeatedly got 2120-2200 on the SAT and on the practice tests. That’s a 212-200 on the old PSAT and a 1430-1460 on the new PSAT according to the tables. Not a huge difference but friends seem to have the same thing, slightly lower scores on the new PSAT.
Does that and @IAmNotCreativ’s scores seem to suggest people are scoring low?
I called CB yesterday and they said we would receive the access code and results today. Today, my son’s account states the scores are ready but we have not received the email with the access code. His account also shows no tests. He is a homeschooled sophmore and this is his first PSAT. He has done an AP and CLEP so he already had an an account. Today when I called they said the first time sophmore PSAT testers will receive an email with the code on Friday. I am betting NOT.
OK, based on 215 being the 99% National cutoff last year, that would give the following. Obviously realize there are a lot of assumptions built in here and it is based largely on last year’s data and the 99% cutoff this year.
State 2016 NMSF 2017 NMSF prediction
Alabama 209 204
Alaska 206 201
Arizona 215 210
Arkansas 204 199
California 223 218
Colorado 215 210
Connecticut 220 215
Delaware 216 211
Dist. of Columbia 225 220
Florida 214 209
Georgia 218 213
Hawaii 214 209
Idaho 208 203
Illinois 215 210
Indiana 213 208
Iowa 208 203
Kansas 213 208
Kentucky 210 205
Louisiana 211 206
Maine 211 206
Maryland 222 217
Massachusetts223 218
Michigan 210 205
Minnesota 214 209
Mississippi 209 204
Missouri 209 204
Montana 204 199
Nebraska 209 204
Nevada 211 206
New Hampshire 213 208
New Jersey 225 220
New Mexico 208 203
New York 219 214
North Carolina 215 210
North Dakota 202 197
Ohio 215 210
Oklahoma 208 203
Oregon 215 210
Pennsylvania 217 212
Rhode Island 212 207
South Carolina 211 206
South Dakota 202 197
Tennessee 212 207
Texas 220 215
Utah 206 201
Vermont 214 209
Virginia 222 217
Washington 219 214
West Virginia 202 197
Wisconsin 208 203
Wyoming 202 197
U.S. Territories202 197
Outside U.S. 225 220
Well we are still in the frustrated no-score camp. Called CB and received the same explanation that @3scoutsmom got. Was told that the CB just gave the call center a memo today about the access code. I asked how would the CB know to which test takers to send the access code… and the rep didn’t know. So I am really not holding my hopes high at this point because it’s unlikely the CB will send the access code to the 4.5M who took the test. Add to the frustration - the GC didn’t have the access code either. She showed me the CB mail that the school received directing the student to go to psat.org to access the score. No code whatsoever in that email. The GC was surprised that my kid didn’t have the 2015 score. Ahhhhh. This doesn’t smell right.
You won’t be officially notified that you are commended until after the semi-finalists are notified in early September. Those letters typically go out a week later, so late September. But the cut has traditionally been released in mid April, when schools are asked to verify data for all those moving forward. So if you are above that, but nowhere close to your states predicted cut, you are certainly commended. However, if you are close, you’ll just have to wait it out to see which recognition level you’ve achieved.
Of course this ignores the fact that anyone who needs an access code (i.e., didn’t list an email or listed one that differed from their CB acct.) would have the same problem. Apparently, the issue existed yesterday and they’re sending out the emails in waves (so – some today, some tomorrow, the rest Saturday). It’s going to be impossible to predict what wave you’ll be in.
I’m so sorry that you and your children have to go through this kind of stress in an already stressful situation.
@mkumar17 Go to the post by Mathyone on page 151, #2255. That is a good method to estimate what you would have gotten in a previous year. Then compare it with the cutoff for your state in previous years.
@mantua I really hope these were right as they are very friendly. However, both simply took last years scores and subtracted 12, with one adding a range of +/- 2. Pretty weak reasoning, but in the absence of all other data it was better than nothing. Trying to correlate scores and percentages after the fact is showing the scores to be much higher than these estimates. I think we can make an argument for last year’s scores -5, and I worry even that is a little optimistic.
@drshoema but also keep in mind that this year, the NMS selection index is out of 228 and not 240 like previous years, so the cutoffs should be lower than that.