@brotney I agree and that is where the -12 is coming from originally. However, the test was clearly easier and seems to be much more friendly to high scoring. Between percentage score reported here as well as initial concordance data, I think many of us would be shocked (but happy) if -12 is the answer.
@Enforcer88 I didn’t get my score report yet sadly…
@drshoema I don’t think you can estimate the new state cutoffs that easily. Please have a look at BunnyBlue p. 98 #1470. I am wondering if the higher cutoffs may come down, and lower cutoffs may go up.
@brotney @drshoema Use the conversion tables to see what the 2015 PSAT score equates to in 2014. There are several posts on this thread, that have gotten buried in the avalanche of posts, that in states with lower cutoffs last year (such as 200), the students might need a Higher selection index this year. States with higher cutoffs in 2014 (such as 224) might need a Lower selection index in 2015. The middle area seems to be around 215-216. According to the conversion charts, these scores seem to be the same despite the different tests.
Does anyone think a 1430/SI of 215 will qualify for NMSF in Florida? The most recent qualifying score was 214, the year before that was 211 if that is useful. Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Just saw @BunnyBlue 's post. Yes, check out her #1470. Everyone interested in trying to figure out if this year’s selection index is good enough for a national merit award should look at #1470. It shows the interpretation of this year’s selection index scores through the conversion tables.
do commednations vary by state
@Plotinus @BunnyBlue How can we start new threads on different sub topics of the 2015 PSAT? I can’t follow with this many people posting on a variety of issues.
So I’m going to try to change my attitude, dealing with College Board has stressed to almost to the point of a stroke! I may not wait for 5:00 for a glass of wine today! In the mean time…
Can anyone who actually has a code from the CB tell me how that is working out with Khan? Are they really making an individualize plan? DS 18 has been working through the Khan SAT prep and is at least partially started level four in every section. Some of those sections have a CRAZY amount of questions 60-80 per section! I don’t want him wasting his time answering a bunch of questions he already knows how to do.
Has any one sent their scores to Khan? Is it really just highlighting just the skills that need improvement? I’d love to hear from people that have tried this.
@BunnyBlue I agree that the Concordance data pushes us to that conclusion. I am just not convinced that the Concordance data is that mathematical and is meant for detailed analysis like this. I think it is more a rough range between tests. Here is my thinking. For this to be true, on the new test the top scores would have to drop quite a bit versus the mid/low scores. They could do this through an aggressive curve, but that doesn’t seem to have been the case now that we see results. I think the Concordance is somewhat messed up because of the 760 cap and they have difficulty correlating the 76-80 numbers from old tests to the new tests. I could be wrong though.
PaMom showed that the 99% cutoff 2 years ago was two points lower (213) than last year (215). However, scores rose roughly an average of 1 point last year. That’s close to the -5 prediction, but pushes it in the direction of -4. What I mean is that if you take scores from the last two years, average them and subtract 4, you may have a decent estimation. I already provided a chart for last year’s scores with a 99% cutoff of (215) vs this year (210). It assumes a straight 5 point drop, but could certainly be off by a few, and states do move around a little unexpectedly from year to year.
@SammieB bummer…here in Northern VA, most of our schools offer dual enrollment Multi-Var.
Cutoff predictions for NJ???
Where is the data showing that last year’s 99th percentile was 215? I don’t believe I’ve seen that anywhere. I thought the 213 for class of 2015 was the last published percentile.
@payn4ward - I agree with where you’re going with that. One comment is that there are both “national” percentages reported to us (which tries to take into account even students that didn’t take the test) as well as “user” percentages (which seems to only show up online if you click “show details”). The “User Percentile” is only over those who took the test - and is probably most comparable with percentile tables we have from previous years.
As you point out, Xersulorac has 1380 as 99th national / 98th user. I know that 1450 is 99th user percentile. If we (guess) that 1410 is the lowest score to get the 99th (user) percentile, the concordance table maps that to 208. But what I see from the 2014 tables is that 213 is the lowest score needed to get 99th percentile. So the concordance result would be an underestimate.
If a 1440 is the lowest score needed to get a 99th (user) percentile, then that concordance score of 214 pretty much matches the 2014 data.
It would be nice to know what the lowest score was that would give you a 99th (user) percentile…
Since my DS is a sophomore, I have one full year to figure all this out. And thank goodness, because it is going to take me at least that long.
Shout-out to all you HS juniors & parents. I do not envy you, and I wish you well as you work through this new PSAT. Please come back next year, when some folks are REALLY going to need you!
Well my kid’s 1400 is still 99th (user) percentile.
1500!
37 Reading, 38 Writing & Language, 37.5 Math
That’s a 225 index. How exactly does this National Merit thing work?
@3scoutsmom I sent my S18 scores to khan. I am not sure what I am looking at. It lists a lot of sections and they have anywhere from 30-65 questions each. Some of them are bolder than others do I think that indicates he should be focusing on those. At the top, it lists three sections for each section that he should focus on as well. Before you log in to add s ores, it says “don’t have PSAT scores, no problem” and discusses the diagnostic tests.
Does that help? What else can I tell you?
When you guys say “cutoffs” does that mean for commended and semifinalists? Or just semifinalists in general?
Thanks @payn4ward - that’s very useful to know…