Is 2015 PSAT of 218/228 safe for NMSF in Illinois?
@garyasho2
The cutoff varies state by state depending on competitiveness since some states will have more score in the 99th percentile than others. The cutoff is NOT 99th percentile selection index for every state. In states like New Jersey, the cutoff last year was 221 or the 99.5th percentile, in my home state of Iowa it was 208, or the 98th percentile nationally, in Wyoming it was 202, or the 97th percentile nationally. Fun fact: the national cutoff for being commended last year was 202, but the cutoff to be a semi finalist in Wyoming was also 202.
We also don’t have the state percentages. A score of x might NATIONALLY be 99.5% but that doesn’t mean it’s 99.5% for a particular state. If you look at the score reports for the SAT you’ll see that the percentages nationally and statewide are not the same. That’s another reason I didn’t focus quite so much on the national 99.5% score range. Due to the higher scores in NJ/DC I have to conclude that the percentages for the state are quite a bit different. Other states would of course, trend the other way.
Still, that REALLY is just an issue in the states with high cut off. For the most part if you’re in the 99.5% nationally you’ll make the cut for your state.
@kyrieIrving2 The cutoff in NJ, DC, and special selection units was 225 last year, not 221.
I’m still having trouble understanding how the highest prediction for.this year ranges from 215-222. This site is killing me, but I can’t stop watching… Like a train wreck.
Do you have the raw stats for numbers of finalists in NJ/MA vs number of students taking the test?
I’m just fascinated by all this analysis! I don’t understand much of it, but it’s fun to try. Keep crunching the numbers!
You can find that information in the annual report but I don’t know if the 2014/2015 annual report has been released yet.
@plmdin thanks, I’ll take a look!
@suzyq7 @nwmom2boys I completely agree, I love and hate this part of the process so much, but I can’t ever stay away and “stop worrying about it” to quote my friends- its just too fun
I wonder why does it take so many months to determine semifinalist. A computer should be able to crunch the numbers in no time. Why do they wait till September to announce.
It’s funny that CB releases all these long explanatory documents that actually contain quite a bit of useful information, but I wouldn’t have seen them if not for this thread. Thanks to everyone who provides CB reports and statistical analysis.
I feel like a week of my life has been lost in the statistical black hole . . .
@plmdin I spent a bit of time with the 220 SI because that’s what my D3 got. Using the concordance tables I derived a range of estimates but the likeliest is 222-223. For 225 you’d need something a tad higher than 220. FWIW using the “concordance table method”.
@Mamelot yes, I think we must have crunched the numbers the same way because we’ve ended up with the same concordance. I just don’t think a 220 will cut it in NJ/DC. 221 probably will but maybe not. 222+ a given. And what got me was how very close a 220 could be to a 223. That COULD be just one math question (.5) and one writing (or reading) question depending on how many were wrong in that section (1).
@plmdin that’s true - not much room for error.
Hello! I’m a freshman with a score of 1300. Is this good or bad? Do you think by the time I’m a junior I will possibly meet National Merit requirements? Thanks!
@Mamelot Yes, not much room at all! At the top of the scores that writing curve seemed harsh. 1 question - 1 entire subscore point!
@helloitsme13 a 1300 puts you in the 97/96% for sophomores and the 95/96% for juniors. Are you sure you have to ask if that’s a good score? If you’re concerned consider that you’ve got loads of time to increase your score. At this point, you may not have even had all the math - so that will most certainly go up. By the time you are a junior there will be a LOT more known about the tests and the scores as well - so there won’t be quite the same anxiety. I think by the time you are a junior people will only really care about/talk about the SI and not the actual ‘score’ - although that score might help with SAT prep as it’s meant to be an "indicator’ of how you’d do on the actual SAT exam (if you’d sat for it when you sat for the PSAT). Anyway, check your SI percentile, I think you’ll find that’s not too shabby either.
How did you know percentile in SI?
The Writing curve was insanely tough- I got a 36/38 with 42 questions right and just 2 wrong. Math seemed soft- 3 wrong, 3 omitted, 42 right translated to a 36.5 @plmdin
All this conjecture is really interesting, but I don’t understand how those released SI percentiles confirm that testmaster’s predictions are accurate? For example, Colorado’s cutoff has been exactly at the 99th percentile for the past two years (at least); and if the 99th percentile this year is at 205 then how does testmaster’s prediction of 215 for Colorado hold up?
I am not mathematically inclined at all but these predictions are fascinating.I hope testmasters is wrong about AL. (213 seems very high!) I am so hopeful about my son’s 211…then I become less hopeful. I tell myself I won’t look at threads than I am back again reading.
@bdragon https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf page 11
@Fambruhghini yes I saw a chart (perhaps in this thread) that plotted that out - how many wrong for each score band and the writing did seem the harshest of the three. In writing in particular that hurts because each point on the subscore is worth 2 to the SI.