@SLparent students, GCs and parents would be outraged if the estimates were off. This is pretty high stakes for some people. Based off all the issues people have had with the “preliminary” concordance tables, there will be pandemonium if CB makes a “guess” at scores given they have the actual data. Testing centers will publish these predictions like they are the final word and people will come to hate CB if they were given false hope.
Has College Board released the data with the total number of juniors who took the PSAT in 2015?
I got a 1510 (missed a reading question and a writing question), with a SI of 226. Any idea about NMSF or NMF chances? I live in Washington.
@YoohooAddict My school had a lockdown in the middle of our PSAT; we got the same choice. I chose to keep my PSAT score because it was literally the easiest PSAT I had ever seen.
@lovesmath You’re joking, right? You have absolutely ZERO chance at making NMSF…you need a 228 SI minimum. /endsarcasm
@plotinus - not yet. The State Summary reports (released in Feb?) will have that information.
If you don’t know how many juniors took the test, how can you estimate what percentile corresponds to the number of awards available for each state?
@lovesmath : too sophomoric
@payn4ward w/ msg 4096. Thank, I did look at page 11 (about SI scores). It seems my method work to estimate
Got to give credits to some one in this CC about about 99+%tiles
1450 99.54
1460 99.61
1470 99.67
1480 99.72
1490 99.76
1500 99.80
1510 99.83
1520 99.86
Base on 2014 SAT data table
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2014.pdf
Base on 2015 SAT data table
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2015.pdf
Year Total #test takers #test taker in 99+% minimum 99%+tile to qualify NMF
2014
@payn4ward with msg #4096. Thank, I did look at page 11 (about SI scores). It seems my method work to estimate
Got to give credits to some one in this CC about about 99+%tiles
Total Score Plus Percentiles
1450 99.54
1460 99.61
1470 99.67
1480 99.72
1490 99.76
1500 99.80
1510 99.83
1520 99.86
Base on 2014 SAT data table
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2014.pdf
Base on 2015 SAT data table
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2015.pdf
Year Total #test takers #test taker in 99+% minimum 99%+tile
2014 1,672,395 7441 99.54
2015 1,698,521 7793 99.54
CB is very consistent with their data. I am using SAT data to estimate PSAT 2017 percentile cutoff
I use Total Score, but you can use SI to your personal preference.
To be brief
**** if one scores at or above 1450 (or 99.54 percentile and up) - 90% plus you would qualify NMF
**** if one scores at or above 1400 up to 1440 (or 99.34 percentile and up) - 85% plus you would qualify NMF
This estimate for higher cutoff states like (CA, CT, DC, MD, NJ, NY, VA, TX, WA)
The estimate for lower cutoff states like (CO, WV, WY or etc …) could be lower a little bit
Again disclaimer: I am an junior in HS, an estimate is an estimate. My Guess is as good as or as bad as anybody’s
Additional info about PSAT 2015
look at page 7 (Percentiles for total scores), to interpret my msg #4118
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
You can’t go by total scores for NMS - the total scores would select different people, since Math is weighted more heavily than in SI. My son had 1480, but only 220 SI, because of a high Math score. 220 can be achieved with 1440 as well.
@AnnMarire74, your comment “since Math is weighted more heavily than in SI” is not what you think. Many analysis say this year 2017 PSAT is “harsh” against Math high scorers. By the way if you have more plausible or more logic, please post so we can calm our nerve. Make it short, I am having fun in this guessing games, but my estimate and conclusions were based on data observations posted by Official College Board and I interpret it as data behavior.
Please, do not take my opinions or conclusions seriously since I am junior in HS and if you follow my posts you would see things like “my methods or my ways of estimate have many flaws” or " an estimate is an estimate. My Guess is as good as or as bad as anybody’s". I am not College Board official and are you one?
@studious99 I think as long as CB stamps all over the cutoffs “PRELIMINARY” & put in a disclaimer “use info at your own risk” I don’t think people can really get upset if final info is different as long as they are warned in advance. (I know I wouldn’t). Right now, we have concordance tables & percentiles that are casting doubts anyway & everyone is using these preliminary data to come up with their own guesses. So for ME I don’t mind if the board gives me an ESTIMATE of the cut offs. The only data CB missing is the Seniors graduating in 2017 for each state in order to come up with the final number of NMSF to give out to each state. And unless the numbers of those graduating seniors change drastically for each state between now & September, the final number of NMSF’s for each state won’t change much. Once you know the number of NMSF’s for each state then it’s easy to generate the score cutoffs.
@dallaspiano I think your guess from your analysis is as good as anyone… However NMSF’s will be based on SI’s and not total score. Someone with a lower total score can get a higher SI (my daughter has a 1430 but 212 SI & her friend 1420 SI 213). Can you perform the same analysis using SI indexes & post for us? There are some posts about CB inflated percentiles but I think it may not affect the people at high end or low ends very much…maybe the people in the middle are more affected.
Once the state summaries come out then people will have more clarity as to what scores are needed to achieve NMSF standing. One caveat that occurred to me this morning, however, is that those reports might be generated for Total Score and NOT SI. In previous years those were the same so it didn’t matter - not so anymore. Therefore, I find @dallaspiano to be providing helpful info. Plenty of people have already generated tables corresponding the totals with SI. It’s going to be an estimate for now and of course someone is going to be right near the cut-off and therefore on pins and needles till Sept. but neither of those situations can be helped.
@SLparent, should I address you as Sir or Mme? As your request, and based on real data of Official CB PSAT on p 11
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
My conclusion - in order to qualify for NMF in Texas- based “top third group in 99%tile, next to the lowest group in 99+%tile”. One should have SI at 210 up to 213, but your daughter of 1430 is at the very top of the top third of 99% next to the lowest 99+%tile in total score result. Very good chance
Again, Please, do not take my opinions or conclusions seriously since I am junior in HS and if you follow my posts you would see things like “my methods or my ways of estimate have many flaws” or " an estimate is an estimate. My Guess is as good as or as bad as anybody’s". I am not a CB official
@dallaspiano Keep posting. I am enjoying the guessing games. Besides, I am in Texas with D having a 1420 & SI 211 so I am pulling for the lower cutoffs.
@dallaspiano thank you! And you are so polite! I’m a mom. Of course I will not blame you if she doesn’t make the cut. Like I said your guess is as good as anyone else & you have good intentions. If the SI percentiles published by the CB is final then I think your analysis is reasonable. It will be interesting to see whose predictions are correct… Prep scholar or Testmaster (original prediction vs. revised) or dallas@piano
I thought the cut-off is related to index score since 1440 index score might be higher than a person with 1450 index score and also the state-wise top scorers might skew it as well. But appreciate your extra effort to come with these figures.