This link is in a thread in the parents forum, reporting anecdotal evidence of a lot more 99% this year and a general inflationary trend in scores. https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/blog/2016/01/14/understanding-your-new-psat-score/
@SLparent, I am an junior (just like your daughter). I just want to see whether new approach is simpler, and easier to find out cutoff rate PSAT 2017. But it has many flaws under the eyes of people with higher Math educations, but sometimes, its less-complexity is the best way to see things. Again, an estimate is an estimate, there is no way to tell whether it’s correct
Finally got my psat scores, 1200
660 math
540 reading
So disappointed
@dallaspiano No, 223 is not the lowest end of 99%, its in the top 1/3 of the 99%.
Agree 100% with @mantua 224 out of 228 will absolute make the cutoff in MASS or anywhere else!
@suzyQ7, copy from msg #4082
Please read “@matterofdegree, you are at the lowest end of 99+%tile of 2016 NMF. Very good chance, I would say 80 to 90% make it to NMF But with 224 for 2017 NMF, you are at the top end of 99+%tile, would be more than 90%. A student with score like yourself (2014 or 2105) would understand msg 4075. Hope you are kidding that make others look bad”
Post edited by dallaspiano at 1:16PM
@suzyQ7, copy from msg #4075
For cutoff PSAT 2017, we may look at data without higher Math knowledge - simpler view
- look at page 3 of http://www.bernardsboe.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_3096886/File/Jill Shadis/Ridge Counseling/Standardized Testing/Understanding 2014 PSAT-NMSQT Scores.pdf.
We can see in the range 99%tile, 213 is the lowest and 223 is the highest end of range 99%tile. Specifically for Texas students, if one score in the upper third of this range - mean 220 (last year), that 80% one would get NMF.
- look at page 7 (Percentiles for total scores) of
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
We can ESTIMATE that if one score from 1410 to 1430 in Texas, that would be 80% make it NMSF
- Disclaimer: I am aware of scale change, conflicting of SI with total scores (posted in this CC by other posters). But an estimate is an estimate. Hopefully it is helpful to predict cutoff rate in you state
When I say 213 is the lowest, it is for 2014 PSAT (link provided above). I do not say 213 for PSAT 2017.
I maybe wrong in my method, but you read it wrong way and try to correct me. Not good
ah- sorry- didn’t ready the 2016 part. These numbers are making me batty.
@dallaspiano Why are your looking at page 7 rather than page 11 for 2015?
1410 to 1430 doesn’t say much. It corresponds to 206 - 218 S.I.
Are you saying that Texas cutoff will lie between 206 - 218 ?
I must say that it is a pretty accurrate estimation.
Well, if you are an junior like myself (anxious, nervous and etc…), it 's ok. If you are parents of test-taker, you probably worry about the score more than we do. I understand it. But your comments give me a chance to clarify more about post #4075 1) …p3 … is for year 2014, 2) …page 7 is for year 2015 . Thank you SuzyQ7
@payn4ward, I just try compare from 2014 range to 2105 range after range of 99+ percentile. I am an junior in HS. As explain, just try to find simpler way to calm my nerve (good for me). But an estimate is estimate. If your prediction is more accurate then we will see it March 2017 (when we receive OFFICIAL NMF notification thru school or mail). But till then my guess is as good as or as bad as anybody else
I still haven’t received my scores and I tweeted to CB and they replied saying that my score would be delayed and that I could call their services. But, I today my teacher, also my proctor for the PSAT, told us that he had reported a heating issue when we took the PSAT becuase the room was literally so hot. He told us that the scores could be made void, or we could retake, or we could just take the SAT… Eh… I don’t know what to do now…
@dallaspiano Do you know if there are more high scores at your school this year than past year? I have not confirmed from our GC’s but my daughter said there are several people that score higher than her (above 1430). Some people scored higher than I expected but I think this has something to do with penalty for throwing darts at anything when you don’t know the answers.
Personally, I don’t know why CB can’t give us an ESTIMATE of cutoffs for each state because they have most of the data. At the end of the day, I don’t think the NUMBER of NMSF’s for EACH state will change that much. For example, based on the most current annual report on NMSC’s website, there were 1,353 NMSF’s for TX, 2,077 for CA, 1,012 for NY. Obviously, these states have the highest correlation between state’s graduating seniors to the TOTAL graduating seniors. They can just publish a list for all states using prior year’s number of NMSF’s for each state and figure out the state cut-offs… they should be able to spit out a report showing 1,353 highest scores for TX, 2,077 highest scores for CA, etc. etc…i will be preliminary but at least it will give people an idea and they can mark “preliminary” all over the list as a disclaimer.
Thoughts, anyone?
@SLparent, a copy of msg #3967
“@JuicyMango, well I complete my TODAY mission - make at least one person happy. You do very well yourself. In North Dallas, there are one or two schools have 20NMFs and 40plus NMFs, but the rest has none or lucky to have one. About perfect 1520, maybe they are in 99.95%Tile (based on data about 500 versus 15000) and those students are considered at extreme end of the score (extreme rare compare to rest)”.
I am aware of your numbers. For your information, last year 2015 there are about 360 NMSF in the whole North Texas.
For the last five years at my HS, we have only one got NM commended. Also, there are many schools have none for whatever.
I agree with your observation about number of NMSF (not change that much)
I believe data published by CB (year 2015). I also know 1 private school in Houston had about 36+NMF in a pool of 142 students. If your daughter is in that private Houston school, then it’s not a good news.
The story goes like this, if you have one eye you are nothing among two-eyes people, but you are the King among the blinds
@dallaspiano what do you mean by if she goes to that private school then it’s not good news? In what way? She has to compete against all students in TX, not just this private school. There are many schools in Houston area that produce lots of NMSF’s
I received a 1420 score with a selection index score of 214
In the state of North Carolina, how close do you think I will be?
@forerunner777 No one knows. So far, this is the best prediction:
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
@SLparent, you are right when say “She has to compete against all students in TX”, and of course “there are several people that score higher than her”. With score 1430 compared to all TX students, she 's in very good standing. 80% to get NMF as according to CB 2015 data table in my post. And about in what ways? Just compare with higher scorers, I would feel very bad that’s not good news to me, myself
@nillupa above a 199
got 1480 (220) in California. - any feedback on how that would compare on NMF final/seminfinalist list ??