Yes, I am talking about Mira Loma 
It is an IB school with kids coming from entire Sacramento Metropolitan area. Also think CA cutoff will be 219-220.
@srk2017 & Others on this thread - if you have insights or info to share that relates to what the state cut offs for the National Merit Semi Finalists might be, we’d be grateful if you could post them on this thread which is devoted to that topic 
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1849640-national-merit-cutoff-predictions-class-of-2017.html#latest
Thanks so much for everyone’s contributions!!
I haven’t done any extensive analysis, just going by what I heard about scores from my S’s school and other predictions and my own gut feeling.
@payn4ward Hello from snowy WV. Just wanted to point out that there is at least one poster on these NM threads who is from WV.
FWIW, I am homeschooling parent, and my eldest kid got NM in class of 2015 (and a hopeful for 2017, which is why I haunt this thread). Since I am a homeschool parent, I act as the “principal” for my kids’ NM process. IIRC, they mailed me paperwork in April letting me know that my dd was a Commended Scholar and to advise me to let them know if her info changed (eligibility, school enrollment, etc) between then and September when NMSF would be announced. I do not believe they ever have a SF cut off below Commended.
I haven’t posted a huge amount in these threads, but I’m here. Just sayin’ . . .
Hello @mmom99 
My apologies, my bad.
So I now take it that the lowest cutoff equals Commended score.
Thank you for chiming in. Good luck to your child!
@nwmom2boys …Thank you for the information. I am going to have to stay on top of all this with the GC and Principal. By the time it is over I will probably be called the worst nightmare. Lol
Interesting Analysis done by @thshadow on another thread entitled “Statistical (monte-carlo) analysis of Cobb County PSAT data”. I will try to post the link.
By analyzing the numbers of a few of the schools in Cobb county who published data, it looks as if the concordance table is more reliable than the current percentile tables–and that cut off numbers for NMSF will be higher, not lower. You all should check it out.
Here is Walton High School’s 2013 PSAT scores if anyone wants to compare to 2015.
Test Takers: 564
CR Mean: 55.5
Math Mean: 56.9
Writing Mean: 53.9
Also have all other Cobb school district data from 2013.
@likestowrite - I am sorry to say though statistical analysis makes sense per school basis by @thshadow, unfortunately this is not how the NMSF will be calculated as I understand from state by state basis. They will sort all the eligible 11th grader Index scores in each state and take the eligible allocated number of NMSF recipients from that state as the cutoff to be NMSF for that state. Yes, if a School had 100 children scoring 1520 then most likely all the children will be selected to be NMSF though this is highly unlikely event. The school with high average in the data provided (Walton and Wheeler) would have more NMSF not at 1519 as suggested considering other schools in the same state has lower scoring. Sorry, if I am confused here!
Certainly it does look like 2015 PSAT was a high scoring test. That’s what I am hearing as well from various data points. So, it’s going to be high cut off for 2017 NMSF fellows (most likely higher based on concordance score which I thought initially was stringent) from each state. Most states might even have 220 or higher as cutoff and competitive states will be even at 225 or higher as cutoff.
@WGSK88 I agree. Obviously this is not the way NMSF will be calculated-and not to get @thshadow in trouble–he clearly states that too. But by looking at the data available both of this years scores at some of the Cobb Co schools and the past numbers of NMSF, his analysis adds fodder to the position that the cutoffs will be high. Plenty of people are still hoping that cut off #'s will be low based more on percentile scores that CB have released. But thshadow’s helpful analysis of Wheeler in particular seems to make a strong argument for higher cutoffs predicted by the concordance tables.
@likestowrite, I understand that assumption in the mid-band states, but does anyone believe that the NMSF cut-off in NJ will climb above the 225 in 2014? I think NJ comes in at or below 223 as I don’t believe there are that many 1500’s out there - just a hunch.
@Chembiodad Yes I agree. I don’t see how a cut off could be equal to 1500+ total score. There seems to be a shift between 217 and 222 SI’s for this year. My daughter has a 222 and her close friend has a 217. When I use the concordance table to see how their scores this year would compare to last year, my daughters goes up to a 224 but her friend’s goes down to a 214. I have not taken the time to try out all the scores in between. But this is consistent with the predications of testmaster and prep scholar who predict that the states with low and medium cutoffs last year will rise while the highest states might drop just a few points.
@likestowrite, can you provide us with their subscores as I continue to believe that kids who are stronger in EWR benefited in this test as it relates to SI - I have a DD that increased from 215 in 2014 to 219 in 2015 with subscores of 38 R, 37 Writing, 34.5 M.
@Chembiodad Yes - EWR has more weight in 2015. My daughter scored 38 (M) + 37 (W) + 34 ® and ended up with 218 index score from IL. She had 760 (M) + 710 (EWR) = 1470. It’s going to be tough for us to wait out till September to see whether she made it to NMSF from IL which looks unlikely given the high scores are being reported everywhere! This is her first ever test as she has not taken ACT or SAT prior or PSAT in Sophomore year!
222=36R, 38W, 37M --concorded to 224
217=35R, 37W, 36.5M --concorded to 214
@WGSK88 – I think your daughter has a really good shot at it – hang it there. My son got similar sub-scores -
a 218 SI in NY - it will be close one way or the other. IL is predicted to be about the same – http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
Fingers crossed for you!
IMHO - Concorded score doesn’t make any sense for qualification for NMSF 2017. Just look at the current year Index score! As long as it’s above 220 or higher in most average states one should be fine. But highly competitive or smaller (DC) one has to be around 225 or higher on 228 scale to be assured to be a NMSF. Otherwise it’s going to be a long wait. I have also requested my daughter’s school to get the number scored higher than her so that we get some idea though this is necessarily a small foot print comparison as her School usually has between 13 to 17 NMSF every year.
@WGSK88, while not trying to add in another concordance discussion, my DD who got a 219 SI (38 Reading, 37 Writing, 34.5 Math) also scored a 34 on September 2015 ACT (36 Reading, 35 English, 35 Science, 30 Math, 36 Writing) so seem to be more similar than not.
My S got 35 ACT (35E, 35M, 33R, 36S, 31 writing) in same September ACT and didn’t prepare at all for PSAT and got 36 R, 36R, 38M in PSAT with 220 SI. He also thinks both are similar.
seems legit http://collageborde.■■■■■■■■■■