Having been a member for 16 months now, I have seen thousands of posts and replies. I often frequent the “What are my Chances?” section because I am very interested to see the applications of those involved students like me and to hopefully give them some decent advice. However, I have stopped getting on CC for the last few months because all I see are comments like this… “Well your application is decent but XYZ school is a reach for anyone, so don’t get your hopes up.” That’s seriously what we’re telling these kids with dreams and many of them with stellar applications that anyone would be proud of…? “Don’t get your hopes up.” I understand that there is a time to be realistic; a 3.0 student asks for their chances to an Ivy and they NEED to be told to lower their expectations. But when I come on here and in the first thread I click see a student who has a 10/10 application and people (many of whom did not get accepted, let alone apply to these top schools) telling them to lower their expectations because Ivies are so tough. I look at a top school like Yale; their SCEA acceptance rate was 17% for c/o 2020… that’s far from impossible or “very unlikely” if you have a great application. All that I know is that if you’re one of the <1% of high school students who frequent this website and who also have a brilliant application that would earn them major recognition at my school and in my city, then I think your chances should be considered more than a reach… just because you have higher aspirations than most doesn’t mean that you’re destined to fail because of the odds. You guys are who’s making these kids join 27 clubs and have no social lives because you’re convincing them that that’s the ONLY way to get into a very selective school. Rant over.
Seriously? “Well your application is decent but XYZ school is a reach for anyone, so don’t get your hopes up” is one of the nicest things people say to applicants. Meaningless platitudes won’t help anything. Some of these schools have 95% rejection rates. NINETY-FIVE PEOPLE OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED will be turned away. Just because someone has a chance at being a lottery winner doesn’t mean you assure them they’re going to win. Does them no favors whatsoever.
I definitely agree that you don’t tell them, “oh yeah you’re a shoo in.” That’s pointless. What I’m saying is students come on here with a top 1% application and get discouraged because everyone wants to be the one that keeps them in check. You don’t have to say that it’s likely they’ll be rejected based on admit/reject stats… they know that. What they want to know is does something in their application make them different enough from the 92ish% of people who get rejected…
How do you know what’s a stellar application or 10/10 to adcoms at a top college? What appears in chance threads is just a portion.
Almost nobody here is an admissions officer, especially not one who will be evaluating their application. So that’s an impossible question to answer and any guesses are just that – guesses. Shots in the dark from fellow high school students, college students, and parents, very few of whom have anything to do with the application process besides having gone through it.
So go ahead and apply to the SCEA if it ups your chanced to 17%. Remember it is not 17% for everyone, it is 17% for the pool. It is probably 90% for the athlete who has had the pre-read and received a Likely Letter, and it may be 50% for a top candidate or legacy who has the top stats but wants that school so applies early but would have been accepted RD too. The applicant who only has a 1% chance hasn’t increase the odds to 17% just by applying early.
I see the message on CC to be to choose wisely, maybe have 1-2 ‘reaches for everyone’ schools, but have a good number of schools where your chances are more like 50% (not that that school accepts 50%, but YOUR chances are better than the application pool).
“I look at a top school like Yale; their SCEA acceptance rate was 17% for c/o 2020”
You do realize that a lot of people in that 17% have something going for the above and beyond stellar grades/test scores, right? Athletes, legacy, some other hook or special EC. Most posters don’t have anything above and beyond.
It’s not being negative. It’s being realistic. Chances threads are pretty pointless IMO, asking strangers whose background/credentials/knowledge base you don’t know.
All I ever see are GPAs and SAT/ACT/AP scores, and sometimes a list of ECs. You’re right, people on CC should try to quash applicant’s hopes, but I don’t think telling them to keep their expectations in check is a bad suggestion. We don’t see the essays and the recommendations that are what is now setting the applicant apart. How is one to know they have a “top 1% application”? There are literally 1000’s of kids with the exact same scores…and they’re not all getting into an Ivy.
Agree that chances threads lack much substance and aren’t very useful… but just stop commenting because obviously my point was not understood. There are times to be curt, and there are times where you see, “hey this kid looks like they probably have a decent chance… let me encourage them today.” There is a MAJOR difference between being realistic and being helpful. These kids KNOW the acceptance numbers…
No, you can’t tell from a chances summary that a kid has “a decent chance.” If anything, chance responders do a disservice in accepting on face value, from a slice, and then giving a false sense of confidence. Top adcoms, in contrast, will view the whole app.
Dreams are fine. But substance matters.
@lookingforward Didn’t say tell them they have a decent chance… I said encourage them IF they look like an applicant with a well above average app. Yes the lack of substance makes it tough, but it’s pretty easy to pick out the ones that have a legitimate shot above 15% or so and the ones that don’t.
Again, what makes you think you or other responders have any college admissions frame of reference?
All anyone can predict- and I mean those with experience- is probably make it through first cut.
That still leaves very tough odds.
Feel free to inject some positivity into your own chancing. But I’d argue that keeping expectations low means getting in would be a pleasant surprise, while expecting a miracle to occur is crushing when it doesn’t happen. Elite college admissions aren’t a positive process, by and large. Anyone who says differently needs to look at those acceptance rates again.
Especially HYPS SCEA.
That’s a hyper-competitive pool. More than one person has noted seeing the top students in their school applying to one of HYPS SCEA and ending up with worse results than lesser students who applied ED to other Ivies/equivalents.
The ironic/tragic aspect is that there’s virtually no difference in quality of opportunities at the Ivies/equivalents.
I’m in agreement with the others - I don’t think telling people to not expect an acceptance at any ivy is a bad or even “negative” thing - it’s not discouraging them to apply, and it’s not affecting their results. If they get in, they are overjoyed and will be happy far beyond the admissions process, if they don’t, they expected it.
If the aren’t told to lower expectations, you get cases where people are distraught sometimes even through college - I see that as much more of a negative.
With so many people, the level we see on CC is relatively common in the end. Going to a private high school specifically for college prep, I know tons of students at this level - being proud of your life should not be tied to getting into a particular school - the reality is that there are more qualified students than spots, and that truth does not diminish the accomplishments of the qualified students. If you want to add positivity, that would be something great to highlight - it’s something people often mention at the time of rejections for a reason.
We don’t need to be telling kids they are special and 1 in a million - isn’t every article analyzing the current generation complaining about the effects of that? What that same generation is coming to learn is that you shouldn’t value your accomplishments because you are unique, but rather because you wanted to achieve them yourself and are happy because of it. If you aren’t, then they may be the wrong accomplishments for you.
It’s other students that read and comment on Chances threads (the blind leading the blind).
The long time participants on CC tend to ignore that subforum because they recognize its purpose: a ghetto to attract and segregate useless Chances threads that would otherwise clog up other forums.
We see students out here with such an inflated view of their chances that they don’t look seriously at match or safety schools. Or for various reasons they can’t afford that HYPS school if they get in (parents don’t want to or can’t pay their EFC, for example). We don’t do anybody a service by telling them that they are hot stuff and don’t worry about it, they are going to get in. Then in the spring, they are dragging out here with no admissions, or only ones they didn’t really look hard at because they were so sure of success at top schools.
One of the boys in D2’s HS class went this route. He was a very good students with good stats and a pretty strong application. The GC had to beg him to apply to a safety (2nd tier LAC near home). He insisted on reaches for the rest of his apps (Stanford, UChicago, Ivies). As you can guess, he got shut out of all his reaches and is at the safety.
I do post on Chances sometimes, but usually to tout the NPC, a copy of Fiske, and to start finding with matches & safeties because you are a lot more likely to get into them. I tell posters that it is fine to apply to a couple of the reaches, 3-4 if they are really strong. But don’t skimp on researching, visiting, and applying to matches and safeties, because everyone is more likely to end up at those.
Also, no one really knows what an applicants essays and recommendations look like. Students (and sometimes their reviewers) are often terrible judges of the quality of their essays. And you have no idea what is in the rec, and if they contain a strong enough recommendation for a top school.
“You guys are who’s making these kids join 27 clubs and have no social lives because you’re convincing them that that’s the ONLY way to get into a very selective school.”
I have yet to hear the collective wisdom of CC tell students to do anything of the sort. Challenge yourself. Get involved in what interests you. And above all, do not let the selectivity of your undergraduate school overshadow everything else. That’s what I’ve heard in my time on CC.
Frankly, anyone who joins 27 clubs because someone on CC told them to has a lot more to worry about than what college they get into.
I think many times students assume that because they are a stellar student at their school or their community that it automatically gives them a leg up on the competition. The reality is mostly everyone applying to super selective schools have stellar stats and a great . You are not competing with only students in your area, you’re competing with students all over the country and world. Often times they are competing with students who apply to multiple selective schools who are being admitted to multiple schools. If you don’t want a realistic answer, it’s probably best not to answer the question. It’s not the people on an anonymous forum that you need to convince how special your application is, it’s the admission’s department . I’d place my efforts there instead of here.
And there are chance threads where applicants believe that Tufts and Rice are good safety choices for Ivy hopefuls/