Sometimes a poster will start a chance thread such as “What are my chances at Harvard and Stanford?”. Posters will respond politely and constructively that these schools are reaches for everyone etc. The OP then comes back and argues “No, no I have a 2380 SAT and have too many EC’s to list” etc. The OP did not want am honest opinion, he wanted validation that he had a really good chance of being admitted. Then the thread deteriorates.
My first reaction to OP’s initial post was “You seem to be an intelligent person. Why are you wasting time on the Chances forum in the first place?”
I think most adult posters agree that the Chances forum is a waste of space that does more harm than good. Some knowledgeable CC’ers do post on the forum in an attempt to be helpful, but I think that practice only muddies the waters by legitimizing the forum and lending credence to even its most ill-informed content. Since the forum isn’t going to disappear any time soon, I would encourage adult CC’ers to just stay off the Chances forum, so its true identity as a place for the blind to lead the blind becomes and remains clear.
Let me ask a question. Do you think kids who post their stats, a few typical activities, (with a statement that they won’t note the “blockbuster” ones, for privacy,) assure that their LoRs will be super, as will their essays, are really getting the picture? Are they HYPMS quality, if that’s what they think it takes?
I suspect my question sounds harsh. But much info is out there for the savvy ones who take a deeper look. We’ve had a few threads bring up "intellectual curiosity, " asking what it is. Some rising seniors. Those aren’t the one’s already showing it.
Then they get responses like, found a club, get a title, limit ECs, tell a sad story. It boggles.
Many of us have helped promising kids via pm, the kids who just need a pointer, a suggestion on how to frame. You can tell pretty quickly that they get it.
I’d hope someone would tell my kid when they were being stubborn and unrealistic.
When someone asks to be chanced at my alma mater I post a link to the school’s website with the stats for enrolled freshmen and a link to the previous year’s decisions thread here on CC. They can then chance themselves.
^^^^
I agree. But there is a way to do that without making the kid feel stupid or naive. And I think the vast majority of CC parents accomplish that.
Mine wouldn’t get on CC, but I agree with intparent. If you’re going after high stakes, you need good advice, not a pat on the head, and you need to be able to process it, not get fussy. We do have TOS that sets standards.
It really isn’t a lottery.
HM1, imo, the problem is the put downs from posters with no idea.
Tom, don’t know your alma, but it’s not just stats of enrolled kids that tells. I believe you know that.
What really boggles my mind is when the student says their school uses Naviance. I just don’t understand why they think we know better than what the actual data from their particular high school shows.
As most here seem to, I believe the vast majority of adult posters on this site mean well and, when they take the time to read a “chance me” thread and then comment on it, they do it because they are trying to help the student; the intent is positive, one of helpfulness.
But we are all humans. As such, we have different modes of communicating, different levels of sensitivity, different personalities, and different biases based (or not) on different experiences. Sometimes we say too little, or too much, or the wrong thing, according to what the OP (or anyone else, in any other important situation) wants to hear.
Is that to be faulted? I don’t think so, not really, as long as your intent is to be helpful.
We learn how to communicate effectively with our friends and loved ones through experience. We literally learn to speak and act in a way they find pleasing. Or we learn that they will accept us as we are… or some of both. Point being, it takes time to learn what types of words and behaviors affect different people in different ways.
So it is no surprise that a statement meant to help might be seen by some as overzealous, rude or even mean. We don’t all know the same things, and obviously in a chances thread, we don’t hardly know each other (us vs. the OP and vice-versa.
When I comment in a chances thread, I try to avoid simple yes/no statements; I try to give some background to my answer and give some advice – often something like “check out fit and finances” or “add some matches and a safety” – for two reasons:
- To help them per se, and
- To try to make it clear that I have put time and thought into the post.
Anyway, perception in interpersonal communication has been a hot topic since probably the dawn of civilization. Knowing that we know so little about strangers’ perceptions and expectations, the best we can do is to try to be helpful and respectful while remaining realistic. (There’s a time to be exuberant and optimistic, but as selectivity increases, I don’t think that a chances thread is one of them. Applicants, I’m sure I speak for most here when I say that we mean to be helpful, not mean.)
I think some kids think you are rude if you say their odds aren’t good—no matter how politely you say it.
So the answer to any chances thread, to be polite, is ‘of course you have a chance.’ What good does that do?
I think many students are wasting the $50 application fee, but it’s their $50.
I don’t read or respond to chance me threads. It’s like predicting interest rates. If I were that accurate I wouldn’t be doing what I am doing now.
I can’t help it. My snarky evil twin takes over when I read posts egregiously oozing with sense of entitlement.
Now, I’ll just crawl back into my cage.
GMT, you’re making me want to pick that lock, but I’m afraid of what I’d unleash. 
Here’s a postmortem from a student with exemplary grades and scores who applied to a spate of top schools and was left with only his safety in the end. Kudos to @rejectedlion2016 for his courage in coming back here to examine where things went wrong. This is a kid who could have benefitted from some tough love from CC posters who would have advised him to apply to some true match schools.
Editing to add-rejectedlion 2016 got some good advice and encouragement and like others I am sure he’ll do well in college and go on to great things!
Just remember that student insight on the back end isn’t necessarily better than on the front end, rejected or admitted. Some of his advice is typically off.
@lookingforward, I agree. I feel for that student – but didn’t think his post mortum was 100% on the mark. Didn’t seem fruitful to comment, though.
IMO the value of the “Chance Me” threads increases substantially when posters are below the uber elite HYPSM level. That’s where there is some room to provide valuable information, especially if the school(s) chanced have admit rates of 25%+.
I really liked that student’s thread, because it helped drive home the point that just applying to top colleges is a great way to probably end up disappointed. He list was glaringly lacking in match or safety schools, except the one he ended up at. It can serve as a great cautionary tale for all the Chance Me posters who,don’t have balanced lists.
^^I agree-I was so shocked when I looked at his list. His GC should be fired.