@fretfulmother According to who? My dad, the doctor with an MD and PhD in Biology, has said even though he has “no doubt” there will be some viable emergency vaccine by the end of the year, due to all the trials that need to be run and the amount of time it takes to mass-produce it, it will probably be at least two years before a widespread vaccine is available. He said that viable emergency vaccine is what Fauci is referring to when he said he is “cautiously optimistic”. Also, he says people are in denial about how long it takes to develop effective treatments; apparently, it’s not that easy. He says the country needs to reopen smartly, because we can’t afford to continue to stay shut down until there is a vaccine or effective treatment.
This might help: We told our D that her budget for school is X, and she is free to spend it as she pleases. She has to take classes to maintain her scholarship, but she can do that where ever she wants. That includes from home and save more money for grad school or a fancy trip to Europe when this is all over. It’s lowered the stress and empowered her to take ownership.
Spend some time discussing pros and cons of everything you can think of especially the worst case scenarios (because everything else will be an up-side).
Even if the “worst case” is all classes online you can formulate a plan to make that the best it can be. I sort of agree with earlier posters that suggested a house. But even if you are planning a house there are many options there. Personally, I’d try to round up some like-minded students/parents and investigate a house somewhere completely outside the college/state. Maybe a house on some land in a lower cost state, with great internet connectivity and outside hiking/running potential.
But, make sure that expectations for the online classes are reasonable especially if the school is new to this. They can be done well, but it takes a top down commitment from the school.
Agreed, @ChemAM. Other than Dr. Fauci, who was unreasonably optimistic 3 months ago, who in a position of credibility thinks there will be availability of a vaccine soon? That is not what other countries are telling their citizens, it doesnt mesh with any of our history of developing vaccines, and I do not know a single doctor who agrees.
So yes, the treatments are available now to mostly control the virus in the vast majority, but not all, people who get it, and those will still be available in future years. And the medical options aren’t likely to be much different, at least for the foreseeable future. Colleges should plan accordingly. Hoping for a miracle is not an effective strategy.
I agree. And even if treatments become available before a vaccine, that will not change the mask and social distancing guidelines. The only thing that will change those recommendations is a vaccine (or if the virus mutates or self destructs…which some would put in the same range of likelihood as a vaccine being widely available within the next year).
NY, NJ and CT just announced that out of state visitors from states with high infection rates must quarantine for 14 days. So if that doesn’t change that will surely effect college plans.
But 2 months of Covid is a long time. Just look at the numbers of daily infections in NY, MA, NJ, CT during mid April and compare that to what we see the past week. It is not a flattening, it’s a steep steep decline. (90% decreases). So I say to everyone, follow the rules, wear a mask and if you are in a state without rules follow the rules of states with the steep declines, and we should be in a much better place by August.
One of the reasons a vaccine may be available in record time is because production will start prior to approval. That’s never been done before and cuts lots of time out of the process. Of course if a certain vaccine is not approved, then the production is a waste of money, but that is a risk deemed worth taking.
The historical vaccine development timelines don’t take into account the manufacturing or production pieces though. So, fastest ever vaccine in terms of clinical trials to approval is 4 years (the average is in the teens).
Again, I hope these vaccines stay on track and are proven to be safe and effective, but fundamentally this development process is extremely different from historical vaccine development processes, which adds more uncertainty into the mix.
Perhaps the colleges that people on these forums focus on intend to make the decision holistically, just like they do in making admission decisions.
There are still too many unknowns about COVID-19 that even setting criteria now can mean having to walk back on the criteria later. Promise too much, and you may not be able to fulfill the promise. Promise too little, and you may needlessly scare people away.
One way they can “figure it out” is to allow doubles in a room. Many colleges like Boston College and UCLA, for example, will treat a student and their roommate as a “family” and will take precautions as needed for that “pod”. While singles are preferred, how are other colleges in the fall able to house two at a time in dorms? The (possibly) flawed assumption is that everyone needs to have their own room.
IMO, Bowdoin and similar colleges are being extremely and overly cautious. These colleges have a ton of money and whose message over the years is all about the undergrad student experience. Very surprised that they couldn’t “figure it out”.
^^^ So don’t be taking gap year (or make other plans) expecting next year to be normal.
As is the case with most Congressional witnesses, Dr. Fauci also submitted a written statement for the record while testifying. That statement is less optimistic.
The year after will be much more normal for colleges, because they will probably have no choice but to reopen.
@socaldad2002 in Bowdoin’s defense, they do think they figured it out. Their priority was protecting the health of everyone and then providing well-planned remote classes. This plan allows them to have 35 percent of kids on campus for fall and work out the kinks of the testing, distancing, etc protocol and supposedly get it going for a bigger group in the spring. That’s what they are trying to plan for. They didn’t think they could feasibly keep a spike from happening if everyone came back. I’m sure they think some other schools are acting rashly in their plans. They don’t say that, of course, but when pushed we heard things like “we’ve done the research and the planning and this is the only way to open safely for Bowdoin”.
It is better to plan for and expect the worst case, and possibly be pleasantly surprised by a less worse case, than the plan for an expect the best case, and possibly be disappointed (or worse) by reality being significantly less than the best case.
Unfortunately, the ability of the US as a whole to do anything smartly with respect to COVID-19 seems to be non-existent. Or even have any sense of agreement on what “smartly” means.
The likely result is a worst of both scenarios situation, with the virus uncontrolled but the economy and other things like schools and colleges still limited by fear of the virus.
I don’t doubt Bowdoin acted in good faith, but I am certain Notre Dame also acted in the same good faith and care for health and came to very different conclusions.
Yes - in our “worst case” that would have been MIT expecting everyone back on campus and us not feeling it was safe. So we had backup plans for that, as well.
Aren’t almost all of MIT courses available free on EdX, and have been for years?
@roycroftmom yeah. I guess Bowdoin was just super conservative in their “way to keep people safe”. Lots of schools planning doubles and I would think they’d maybe have to do some for spring but wanted to start with just singles this fall. Baby steps for them. Their priority as written in the letter -
“First and foremost, the health and safety of students, faculty, and our neighbors in the Brunswick community…
Provide an excellent Bowdoin education.
Strengthen the bonds of our community.
Be good stewards of our financial resources “
So you can see the health and safety as number one and education (albeit it all remote) is number two. They never said anything about saving the on-campus experience or athletics.