I appreciate you engaging with the question. Here are my thoughts:
First, only part of Dartmouth’s argument for bringing back test requirements is about outcome: quoting from their announcement -
Their illuminating study found that high school grades paired with standardized testing are the most reliable indicators for success in Dartmouth’s course of study.
There are a ton of studies out there we’ve all seen from various schools and groups of schools that show varying levels of correlation between SAT scores (by themselves and with other factors) to GPA, long-term graduation rates, etc. The data on the success rates in a Test-Optional environment is, I think we can all agree, much more sparse, and of course newer TO schools can’t do that for a while…
Of course they didn’t, because they can’t yet. The first class admitted TO matriculated in 2021. They haven’t graduated yet. If they want to do a “long-term” study - let’s say five years? - then they’d remain TO until the class of 2026, and really they would wait until that class graduated so as not to be swapping back and forth, so they’d be TO until 2030. It’s reasonable to see that a school that saw TO as a potentially-temporary adjustment due to a global crisis might want to use data earlier to evaluate that decision, even if there are reasons as to why that data might be imperfect.
And, of course, graduation rates are an imperfect tool for this, especially at highly-selective schools. Dartmouth’s four-year graduation rate is 88%, six-year is 96%, so the likelihood of a substantive differentiation here is unlikely. The much longer testing thread has lots of other arguments for and against graduation rate as a reasonable metric, and I stopped reading that 800 posts ago, so I won’t rehash them. I would just say that graduation rate is one reasonable measure of outcome, and first-year GPA is another.
Here’s the second point, though, which is that Dartmouth said it wasn’t just interested in measuring matriculated student outcome, but also interested in regretted student declines, based on a lack of relevant information:
They also found that test scores represent an especially valuable tool to identify high-achieving applicants from low and middle-income backgrounds; who are first-generation college-bound; as well as students from urban and rural backgrounds. It is also an important tool as we meet applicants from under-resourced or less familiar high schools across the increasingly wide geography of our applicant pool. That is, contrary to what some have perceived, standardized testing allows us to admit a broader and more diverse range of students.
Even if we time travel and discover there were no discernible differences between matriculated students who submitted test scores and didn’t, this argument still holds up: if Dartmouth thinks it is losing out on a tool to identify students (for lots of reasons, including misinformation/counselor misunderstanding or disengagement/the Reddit effect/whatever), this could be enough of a reason by itself to remove the TO policy.
I wouldn’t be surprised either - I’m not naive enough to really think the President of any school is without opinion or influence - but I don’t think there is reason to believe that the Dartmouth Board of Trustees is substantively more conservative than the ones at, say, Princeton, Stanford, or Harvard, all of which are TO for at least 2025, if not longer.
Where I end up is pretty straightforward: if we’re going to be fair to the schools making these decisions, we are best off taking them at their logic and their word (and seeing if we can learn from it), rather than supporting the ones that confirm our (possibly-well-formed) bias and questioning the motives of the ones that don’t.