Stock market gurus do not know where the stock market is going...

<p>So...did these prognostications come true?</p>

<p>THE</a> IDIOT-MAKER RALLY: Two Years Of Making Gurus Look Dumb</p>

<p>There is no such thing as a stock market guru in the long run. That is why index funds in general in the long run outperform managed funds after expenses.</p>

<p>Henry Blodget was once a guru</p>

<p>It might be easier to follow a stock than the market. but I have seen dart board investing out performs "market gurus".</p>

<p>stock market is crap shoot, to say the least.</p>

<p>That's why you only take advice from "a hot tip" :)</p>

<p>Thanks for the link. I'm going to send it to my wife. She likes to tell me what the gurus are saying while I keep telling her to ignore what they say. Our markets are manipulated as our economy depends a lot on confidence and a sharply dropping market does not make for confidence in the economy. So it's hard to trade on the recommendations of these gurus that look at things in terms of common sense. The market quite often doesn't make sense.</p>

<p>So what do you do? You can use systems that work over and over and over again that ignore fundamentals. You can pick good companies that are well managed and that have some kind of edge over their competition. You can pick undervalued companies.</p>

<p>One other thing about gurus - there have been gurus that were right for a very long time. What I've seen happen is that they then get so confident of their abilities that they feel that they can never be wrong. And that's when they get clocked. Bob Brinker is a good example of this.</p>

<p>What galls me is that the Banks had ALL THE INFORMATION on the mortgages they were funding and buying. None of the Banks looked to see if the loans were sustainable or valid. </p>

<p>The Bankers didn't need their gurus, all they had to do is visit, just one, MainStreet USA.</p>

<p>a good read, The Big Short. by Michael Lewis</p>

<p>The people writing the mortgages got paid in fees from the mortgages that they wrote. What happened afterwards wasn't their problem. Well, it could be a problem for the company that they work for but that could be okay if they got theirs up-front. The losers in the company would be the shareholders. With incentives like that, you get the behavior that we had in the last decade.</p>

<p>BTW, this information was known in anecdotes well before the crisis hit. If you spent time at the Housing Bubble Blog in 2003, 2004, 2005, all of this bad stuff was reported and everyone knew that the system would collapse. The main thing that people there didn't know was when. The other thing was that the homebuilders kept going up and up and up despite the knowledge of how people were getting mortgages. It made it very dicey trying to short those guys.</p>

<p>"Henry Blodget was once a guru"</p>

<p>This crook is still doing his guru thing.</p>

<p>I used to listen to Bob Brinker...I stopped when my car radio needed a password to get restarted..and I forgot the password. I could go to the car dealer to get it...and they charge something like 100 bucks for the password info...so...after a few days without it...I decided I like the quiet.</p>

<p>Bob Brinker was just starting to get a little to full of himself for me at that time. I agree with you, BCEagle91.</p>

<p>I criticized another guru on this board. I wasn't just being an a@@@@@@...at least not in this case. ;)</p>

<p>Here is Dennis Gartman's track record with his tiny, tiny, tiny etf over the last couple of
years. </p>

<p>HAG.TO</a> Basic Chart | Horizons AlphaPro Gartman ETF Stock - Yahoo! Finance</p>

<p>Another loser.....</p>

<p>Gartman is a hack...though i do enjoy the Pimco guys, El-Erian and Gross</p>

<p>Glad I don't have to pay for any of you guys.</p>

<p>Have noticed that only pretty girls report the business news.
And its the guys that make predictions and opinions.</p>

<p>Yes, Sue Hererra is a looker. ;)</p>

<p>
[quote]
That is why index funds in general in the long run outperform managed funds after expenses.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>IM, you need to speak to DW. Most of my assets are in index mutual funds or index ETFs, and she beats me up because every financial planner she runs into demonstrates how well the funds he's pushing have done relative to index funds. And then there's this thing in fine print about past earnings and future performance..</p>

<p>Bob Brinker, wow, I haven't heard that name or his distinctive voice for decades. Local station used to carry his "money talks" (or something similar) show where he would have a one-liner about critical mass something... I still hold the T Rowe Price New Asia Fund thanks to his recommendation (and it's probably back to the levels it was then after a huge peak before the bubble). </p>

<p>Did anyone ever listen to late erstwhile guru (and other names) Charles J Givens? Used to listen to him I think in the late 80s, but even in my naivete, don't recall making any of the moves he recommended, nor did I join his organization.</p>

<p>Don't know Givens...</p>

<p>How are some of the Hedge funds doing this year?</p>

<p>Schilling may have been wrong on the call, but he still cleaned up in the bond market.</p>

<p>In response to the title of your thread: as it should be :P</p>

<p>and then of course there is the real guru - Jim Simons.</p>

<p>That's right, Doct.</p>

<p>The first guru I can remember is Joseph Granville. That really dates me, doesn't it.</p>