After I saw my ORM kid with no hooks and 3.9 gpa and 33 ACT score (but still a NMF) decide on his own to apply to – I told my kid to apply confidently but don’t expect to get in – and then get into Stanford REA, I am never telling anyone they should not apply to a specific school. At the same time, I am never telling anyone with high stats they are likely to get into top 20 to 30 schools because I have seen too many kids with perfect gpa and near perfect test scores get denied from UCLA and Berkeley. One thing I learned through this college application process is it’s not the stats you have but how you present the stats, life experiences and talents in an appealing manner that resonate with the adcom that has a greater bearing on the outcome.
My S19 has stats similar to the kid mentioned by the OP and probably hasn’t even heard of Stanford (and one of his grandparents went there! He’s just oblivious). I won’t discourage him from applying to reaches, but I’m not going to go around telling people he has a 20% chance of getting in to Stanford! I would probably just wish the parent good luck, or, like OP, make an innocuous comment about how competitive it is.
I would never say anything discouraging to a kid who had a reasonable list, but also had a few unlikely super-reaches. I might want to offer some advice to a kid who had a list that was all super-reaches, though. I haven’t seen anybody doing that in real life, though.
Mine is applying to two Ivies and 12 other schools. The Ivies are essentially like buying a lottery ticket. And I am pretty certain the “winnings” can be found elsewhere for much less money and angst. Still our D wanted to try for the two that were good fits for what she wants to do. We have a friend who let her daughter manage the entire process. Which in some ways is really incredible. But her D applied only to Ivies and our state flagship. She ended up at the state flagship with no other options. The mom was totally unaware of things like merit aid. Anyway it worked out but it is great to have choices.
My patient is a grandmom to a gal applying. She freaks out when I try to make suggestions, like applying to the state flagship or UMiami. Nope, the gal and her parents are set on an Ivy in a certain city. I suggest some EA schools in same locale. Her safety is more a match, and this with a private consultant. It makes me nuts to not have a real,safety.
I never tell anyone not to apply. If you don’t apply you have a zero percent chance. I always say good luck too.
Sure, but we are addressing safeties. To me, a safety is a rolling admission, EA, financially affordable.
My high stats kids did not have a “rolling admission, EA” in their list (finances were fortunately not part of the equation). They each got into at least half of their application colleges. It really depends on the kid.
What would be an example of a super reach for a B student? Curious 
Share the advice a seasoned admissions officer gave to students applying ED at a top 10 school:
If you are accepted, Terrific! If not, have a one day pitty party, don’t take it personally because 80% of applicants are highly qualified, dust yourself off and finish the rest of your applications.
@EENYMum, for our B student son we consider Fordham and Ithaca’s Park School of Communication to be reaches. He has higher SAT scores than one might expect for a B student, so they aren’t super high reaches. He’s not expecting to get into either, though.
New here–forgive my ignorance. A lot of posters mention “hooks.” What exactly counts as a hook?
I am an expert by no means but I consider a hook a particular characteristic about a student that might make them unique in the student body so they may be willing to over look slightly lower stats to allow admission. Something like being an athlete, an experienced musician or actor, being an under represented minority, etc. Perhaps someone will have a better definition than me.
That’s pretty much it as I understand it, @MusakParent - also ‘hook’ includes kids whose parents gave multi-million dollar science buildings to the college.
Girls majoring in STEM and offspring of university employees can also be considered “hooked”.
It should also be noted that being hooked doesn’t always mean that “lower stats” are looked over. In my experience, hooked students usually have excellent stats, but the hook gives them an edge over equally qualified students.
In fact a few year’s back Harvard’s freshman class the legacies had higher average SAT scores than the class as a whole. (At least according to the Crimson’s freshman survey - I can’t find that info on the latest ones.)
@mathmon A more appropriate way to compare is putting the scores of legacy against those of unhooked, or even better against those of top 2000 unhooked rejects. I seriously doubt legacies would still show higher stats. But we really don’t know that and the only way we would know is to have the school release the data.
Here is an article in yesterday’s NYTimes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/education/edlife/what-college-admissions-wants.html
“…Legacies make up nearly a third of Harvard’s current freshman class, The Harvard Crimson has reported. Princeton’s class of 2021 is 13 percent legacy, according to the university’s website.”
Besides 33% legacy (it probably means any family member) we know that roughly 17% of the class is first gen (Stanford publishes that data) and 10% is international. So we are left with only 40% of the class for other domestic applicants. For a middle class kid who did not have a good fortune being born into a Harvard family, could not be counted as an URM or being talented enough as a recruited athlete schools like Harvard has only 10%-20% room for him or her. That is not super reach, it is basically out of reach. This is just against every ideal schools like Harvard preaches.
And yet every year I know kids from our high school who are not athletes, and are not legacies who do get in. Of course the odds are not great. My point is only that legacies aren’t getting in if their scores aren’t right up there.
yeah, my DD was completely unhooked, New York public (“ok”) high school, very good scores, pretty good GPA but nowhere near Val (very rigorous, probably top at her school, schedule). She recently graduated from Yale. Who the heck knows.