<p>Omg.</p>
<p>I am so sorry.</p>
<p>It was bound to happen. He had been in an uncountable number of ER’s. He died taking what he was manufacturing. Its not clear if his was the only death associated with his business or not. We had gotten a facebook message from a mother who said that her son had died in California and was a customer of my son.</p>
<p>Ok…</p>
<p>I am saddened by this. </p>
<p>I have to leave for several hours.</p>
<p>If you would like to communicate by PM, clear up some spaces. </p>
<p>I am very sorry.</p>
<p>I went to a Best Buy today. The store was crowded. Kind of surprised me. </p>
<p>There were soooooo many phones. There were plenty of tablets, but not as many as phones. </p>
<p>I see a glut coming…</p>
<p>Why does Samsung need to offer so many different phones? Reminded me of George Carlin. Americans have freedom to buy large varieties of consumer goods.</p>
<p>“The region’s office construction market is making a strong comeback, driven by the expansions of medical and biotechnology companies that are funding new buildings going up in Boston’s Seaport District, East Cambridge, and suburbs along Route 128.”</p>
<p>“More than 4.7 million square feet of office and laboratory space is under construction in the Boston area, up from just 430,000 square feet in summer 2011, according to the real estate firm Richards Barry Joyce & Partners.”</p>
<p>[Office</a> construction makes a comeback in Boston area - Real estate - Boston.com](<a href=“http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/2012/09/28/office-construction-makes-comeback-greater-boston/Gt3Xhk513HMugsAGzDmuaK/story.html]Office”>http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/2012/09/28/office-construction-makes-comeback-greater-boston/Gt3Xhk513HMugsAGzDmuaK/story.html)</p>
<p>There are a lot of phones out there and the market is dominated by Samsung and Apple right now. Microsoft and Nokia are launching Windows Phone 8 later this year and it may or may not be successful. Their difficult problem is lack of apps.</p>
<p>Samsung is cleaning house with their big phones and wide variety of products. Apple is selling a lot of product despite some problems (problems with native maps, some minor quality issues in a few models, manufacturing capacity problems). Motorola has announced some new models. Everyone wants in in a big way and relative strength in local markets may allow a lot of players to continue.</p>
<p>The iPad is still king of the tablets but Google, Samsung and Amazon are coming on strong. One of the reasons why there may be so many phones is that the profit margins to the stores are good for signing up a new customer. The table space, outside of Apple, is cutthroat and low-margin. Phones cost $500 - $900 (without the subsidy) while tablets run $200 - $250 (no subsidy because they are wifi devices). I think that the 7 inch tablet market is huge and expect Apple and Microsoft to get into this market soon. The problem with the 7 inch tablet for Microsoft is that it doesn’t mesh well with their separate phone/tablet with Windows 8 strategy.</p>
<p>There’s a wide variety of buyers for phones. Apple’s phones are considered small but a lot of people like smaller phones (easy to fit into Jeans, you can navigate easily with one hand, low weight). A lot of people like or are trying out larger phones. They are also experimenting with huge phones that can be used with a pen device. They are trying lots of different things.</p>
<p>BTW, I got a Samsung Galaxy Nexus for my daughter and she loves it - I’m not as big a fan of Android for phones but I think that they did a good job on tablets except for the problem of not enough native apps.</p>
<p>It’s interesting to see the medical boom in Boston. Around the state, hospitals are closing or merging as the state is trying to curb medical costs. The strong are doing well but the weak are not. Despite that problem, there are lots of small companies making new things and the non-profits doing lots of research and inventing and discovering.</p>
<p>In my own state of NH, there was an article stating that the average age in NH is 41 and that the population is declining. People are leaving the state for greener pastures. The allure of lower taxes isn’t strong enough to attract large companies to move here (though there are companies moving here - they’re just not large).</p>
<p>I looked at the 7 inch tablets…I saw the Kindle Fire…I would rather have the larger size IPAD.</p>
<p>I like the price better with the 7 inch tablets, and if I only used the tablets for reading, I might get one, but I don’t.</p>
<p>I played with the Iphone5. I brought up college confidential and left that web site up. Free advertising CC. 
I would not want to spend too much internet time on the Iphone. I think there is a lot of hype going on…</p>
<p>I do like the Ipad. I didn’t see anybody looking at portable pcs. </p>
<p>I saw the windows nokia phone. Didn’t look interesting.</p>
<p>I get less and less confident about windows 8 the more I look. There are so many ways to get computer power now, I don’t think there is a huge pent up demand for windows 8. Microsoft better have an advertising campaign ready that kicks butt because do people and corporations need Windows 8?</p>
<p>More and more companies are using Ipads in place of a cash register.</p>
<p>There was somebody buying an Iphone 5 when I was there. I was there a half an hour. Maybe 1 Iphone5 sold.</p>
<p>Anyway…did I mention hype? :)</p>
<p>I did like the BestBuy store. Maybe the store is no longer economically viable. That would be a shame.</p>
<p>Why isn’t NH attracting larger businesses? Lack of infrastructure? Not enough qualified workers?</p>
<p>
I remember reading a few years ago that commercial real estate was going to be a bigger disaster than residential real estate.</p>
<p>I guess that didn’t happen.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I think that Apple has 60% of the tablet market right now so there are
definitely more people that like the bigger screen. But the ladies at
my office were definitely attracted to the 7-inch form-factor and
really liked the 12 ounce weight. The biggest attraction was that it
fits easily into a handbag.</p>
<p>Intel’s Ultrabook initiative will result in 10-15 inch tablets that
are convertible to laptops. The screen will either be attachable or
flippable so that you can use the screen surface as a touch device
while attaching the keyboard and trackpad when you need more laptop
style functionality. We’ll see whether or not this will catch on.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I have the Nexus 7 and I use it a lot more than the iPads that we have.
The Nexus 7 also comes with a nice quad-core processor and nVidia Tegra
graphics engine so performance is very good. You can do that in a ten
inch tablet too - I suspect that Apple will put their A6 processor in
next year, maybe a tri-core or quad-core variant, and it should smoke.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>Ths iPhone 5 is my first smartphone. I played with one a bit before I
gave it to my daughter. The iPhone 5 does a lot of things well, has a
huge application library, and is a nice form/function device. It has a
few faults but all of these sorts of products do.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>This is a problem for Microsoft and Intel. PCs from five years ago
still run fine. Software really isn’t getting bigger. Laptops from
four to five years ago are fine too for the vast majority of
users. Microsoft and Intel need something to spark an upgrade cycle.
They are both betting very heavily on convertible laptops for this.
I have my doubts. My laptop still runs just fine at almost five years
old and I have no intentions of replacing it next year. I think that’s
true for the rest of the household too.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>That’s the old model (which isn’t upgradable). Microsoft and Nokia
will be launching the new one in October or November. It’s has
received rave reviews though I usually ignore most of the reviews.
You don’t really learn about a phone until you use it regularly.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I agree with you. But the mainstream consumer has surprised me many
times. One of Microsoft’s biggest problems with Windows 8 is that its
main competition, Windows 7, is so good. Everyone I talk to is very,
very happy with Windows 7 and who wants to spend $40 to $100 per
machine to upgrade to something that might be worse.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I haven’t seen this but I buy a lot of things online. I don’t see iPads
in the office anymore. I do see Android tablets and iPhones though. I’m
pretty amazed that I can do certain kinds of tasks on my iPhone now. I
can do more on a tablet if I have to.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>The shipping times at the Apple website is 3-4 weeks so there is a lot
of demand for these devices - but there can be mismatches between
where they are shipped and local demand. The Apple Store told me that
several people from my office had picked up iPhones at the
launch. I’ve actually seen quite a few people walking around with
iPhone 5s at the mall.</p>
<p>Apple is launched the iPhone 5 in an additional 22 countries
yesterday. By December, it will have launched in 100 countries. The
original launch was just nine countries.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I haven’t been at Best Buy in a long time. The Apple Store and Target
typically have what I need when I can’t wait. Otherwise it’s Newegg or
Amazon. Amazon is working pretty hard on getting stuff to you in one
or two days so you only need a little patience for better selection and
prices.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>The infrastructure is here in Southern NH. There is an international
airport, good road system, highly educated adults, safe place to live,
access to excellent healthcare, the beach, mountains and great hiking.
What has happened in the past 7 or so years is businesses have
consolidated their locations and we lost employers that moved their
employees to MA. Hewlett-Packard was the largest example of this. They
have had some hard times and may be a special case. I know of some
other companies that merged and got good local tax deals to move to
Massachusetts. NH has the income tax advantage but other areas can
lure companies away with a combination of tax breaks.</p>
<p>I think that the schools have declined too except for the best of
districts. My guess is that this is true in a lot of other places but
the schools here were very good 15 years ago - the problem is that
success can bring an influx of people where you later lose your
success.</p>
<p>NH is one of the most highly educated states but those educated people
move here from other states. Our young adults are leaving the
state. My guess is that they are going to college in other states and
they are staying in those other states. NH has UNH which has severe
underfunding problems. It also has a lot of colleges and universities
but you’d be very hard pressed to find schools that provide
engineering programs. A lot of schools up here do liberal arts,
business majors, soft sciences and a lot of them aren’t that
rigorous. I’m not talking about Dartmouth of course but I’d guess that
a lot of Dartmouth graduates don’t stick around after graduation.</p>
<p>Notrichenough, my wife works in commercial real estate development. That sector is terrible. Maybe Boston is doing well, but most areas of the country are not doing well.</p>
<p>I think apartments are doing well in many areas of the country.</p>
<p>BCEagle91, great post. Do you think the Ultrabook is going to do well? Is there a need for a portable pc-- tablet in one unit? You are happy with your portable pc. You are happy with your tablet. I have my doubts too. This might be a product without a demand.</p>
<p>Interesting that you don’t see Ipads in the office anymore.</p>
<p>I never hear anybody talk about Windows 8, or Windows 7 for that matter. Aapl has a
buzz. People are excited about Apple products. I have never heard anyone tell me I can’t wait to upgrade my Windows software. I usually hear, “Ok. I guess we HAVE to upgrade”.
I think there is a big difference there…between MSFT and Apple.</p>
<p>I could be surprised too. I have been surprised many times by what excites the public. I think though, at some point, people are going to have buying fatigue. People are going to want something else besides a new phone or a tablet.</p>
<p>I guess your Best Buy comment is why Best Buy is in deep trouble. I like Toys R Us. I like Borders. Best Buy. Oh well.
My wife likes the old Kindle which is small and doesn’t like the Ipad so I guess there might be something to your purse comment. I, on the other hand, do not have a purse. :)</p>
<p>I like the NH comments. I don’t really have anything to say there. I am just listening.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>I think that the Ultrabook is a great concept. A laptop that you can
do real work on combined with a tablet that you can do some work on
and use to consume media. The problem is that a good laptop is usually
at least 13 inches and a handy tablet is at most, 10 inches. I think
that tablets are heavy, even at 10 inches. A 13 inch tablet is one
that you hold with two hands when using or you use it on a table.</p>
<p>Phones are doing quite well - they provide communications and
computing in a mobile package. People are paying a lot for the
services on these things.</p>
<p>The cheap tablets are doing well. They fit a niche and they’re cheap.</p>
<p>Is the consumer willing to spend $700 - $1,100 for another device?
There are lots of cheap laptops for $400.</p>
<p>The first phase of ultrabooks did not do well. The first phase had
thinner and lighter laptops that had long battery life and these
started appearing late last year. Intel warned for the current quarter
a while ago - Ultrabooks did not give Intel the shot in the arm that
it needs for growth.</p>
<p>The second phase will be more interesting. Do I think that it will
succeed? I consider it to be an uphill battle but part of the battle
is the weak state that the consumer is moving to. In 2013, payroll
taxes will go up about $1,000 for the median income household (there’s
no support on either side of the aisle to continue the payroll tax
cut). There goes your Ultrabook out the window. I think that most
people will just keep using what they had before. Those looking for
new devices for kids could just buy the cheaper stuff.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>People absolutely wanted to upgrade from Vista to Windows 7. But you
probably don’t hear anything about Windows 7 because people are happy
with it. Apple is about 10% of the PC market. They have 15% growth in
their PCs while Windows PCs are probaby growing at around 2%. Apple
has the buzz but the vast majority are not going to buy Apple
computers because their prices are so high.</p>
<br>
<br>
<p>The nice thing about phones and tablets (from a seller’s perspective)
is that compute power is still fairly constrained while demands on
phones and tablets is still growing. This is like PCs where back in
the 1990s and early 2000s where you upgraded every few years because
the software became increasinly more demanding on the hardware. So
I expect to see reasonably quick upgrade cycles on phones and tablets
until hardware performance gets to the point where running software
applications works fine on older devices. We aren’t there yet and
I think that we have many more years in this mode.</p>
<p>I love the payroll tax cut comment because that is the one tax cut that should stay because it will be spent and provide immediate stimulus, unlike some of the other tax cuts which are used to save, or invest money or to invest overseas.</p>
<p>I am not worried about the fiscal cliff. People woryy about the flash crash, hft, Us Treasury downgrades, fiscal cliff, and the stock market eventuakly recovers and rises. i hope we fall off a fiscal cliff. It will be a buy opportunity.</p>
<p>Interesting points about the upgrade cycle for phones and tablets. </p>
<p>I walked by a Peet’s Coffee Shop today and at the window I saw 2 people working on Aapl laptops. I didn’t see 2 people working with pcs. Tiny anecdote. May mean nothing.</p>
<p>Wth are you doing up so late?</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Of all the tax cuts, the payroll tax cut is the worst. Payroll taxes are the source to fund social security. When they are cut, social security is undermined even further and future generations pick up the bill. Able-bodied adults should pay for their benefits.</p>
<p>
Supposedly there was going to be a liquidity/foreclosure crisis that would dwarf what happened in the residential market. There were going to be empty and abandoned strip malls and office buildings everywhere.</p>
<p>For example:</p>
<p>[The</a> Looming Crisis in Commercial Real Estate - TIME](<a href=“http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1893125,00.html]The”>http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1893125,00.html)</p>
<p>Maybe it just didn’t make the news, because “100 office buildings sold at auction” isn’t nearly as interesting a story as “100 people lose their homes.”</p>
<p>Were/are commercial RE companies going bankrupt, getting foreclosed on, losing their properties, etc.?</p>
<p>Writing headlines to scare people sells more magazines than afterwards saying it didn’t happen.</p>
<p>^^Absolutely. And the beauty of that is that all you need is just a flashy headline, because most folks will not read most articles past the headlines.</p>
<p>Notrichenough, I don’t know what to tell you. </p>
<p>In SF, commercial real estate is not in trouble. </p>
<p>There are fewer people that are involved in commercial real estate than residential so maybe that is why we haven’t seen the impact.</p>
<p>Office space, hotels, retail is a mess. Maybe not as bad as it was supposed to get, but it is still a mess.</p>
<p>I can start naming names of people that are out of business. My wife’s job is month to month. She might be done anytime. Can’t get financing.</p>
<p>Do you want to finance a hotel?</p>
<p>One thing I see is people are just sitting on underwater property. The
values are down 20 to 50 percent and the owners aren’t doing anything. Or the lenders who had to take property back aren’t doing anything. </p>
<p>A friend of mine owns a couple of retail strip malls in Texas near
Houston. Texas is supposed to be booming, right? He lowered rents across the board, 20 percent. So you don’t read of any problems. If you drove by his strip centers you would never know that his revenues declined 20 percent. </p>
<p>I think in commercial real estate there is more skin in the game. Many property owners own their properties debt free. My friend mentioned
earlier had 50 percent equity in his properties. You have long term investors invested in commercial real estate like pension funds or insurance companies. These investors can handle the declines. </p>
<p>Plus…financial institutions have been bailed out like crazy. All those interest free loans…so many interest free loans…</p>
<p>I like this article.</p>
<p>[Why</a> Angel Investors Don?t Make Money ? And Advice For People Who Are Going To Become Angels Anyway | TechCrunch](<a href=“http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/30/why-angel-investors-dont-make-money-and-advice-for-people-who-are-going-to-become-angels-anyway/]Why”>Why Angel Investors Don’t Make Money … And Advice For People Who Are Going To Become Angels Anyway | TechCrunch)</p>
<p>The prior post, I guess I should add that Reits have done very well and firms have been able to go to capital markets to raise money.</p>
<p>Talked to someone close to the real estate business in Philly yesterday who said things are loosening up a little in commercial real estate lending. The term he used was that they could see the light at the end of the tunnel.</p>
<p>I agree with the guy you talked to EMM1.</p>