The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
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<p>On a tangentially related matter, I’ve been thinking a lot about the problem of getting yield in the world of Helicopter Ben. In particular, I have been focusing on a simplified version of an idea I floated some time ago. One version of the idea would be to buy HYG and hedge it with SPYS. Since HYG has a beta of about .5 and by definition SPYS has a beta of 3, you would have six dollars of HYG for every dollar of SPYS, giving you 6/7 of the basic HYG yield, or about 6%.</p>

<p>One problem would be to avoid the long term decay issues associated with SPYS. In order to avoid the problem, you would have to buy or sell small amounts of SPYS almost daily in order to keep your HYG/SPYS ration within a narrow range. Thus the recent question about Inactive Brokers. You would still have some random volatility, but it shouldn’t be a lot.</p>

<p>This sounds too good to be true, so I’m probably missing something. But if the basic concept is sound, you could add other high yielding, low beta ETFs to the mix, such as AMLP and PFF. </p>

<p>What do you guys think of the idea?</p>

<p>It is hard to imagine that not too long ago you could get a perfectly safe 5-6% just by laddering CDs.</p>

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<p>What is SPYS?</p>

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<p>It is the replacement for BGZ</p>

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<p>“Of all the tax cuts, the payroll tax cut is the worst. Payroll taxes are the source to fund social security. When they are cut, social security is undermined even further and future generations pick up the bill. Able-bodied adults should pay for their benefits.”</p>

<p>I agree. Social security is in trouble already without taking away contributions to it. The problem is, there never seems to be any “temporary” tax cut. As soon as they try to put it back to where it was originally, it becomes a tax increase, not just a snap back to the intended rate. If there is one thing that is worth paying for, is to fund social security (I’m pretending that they actually use those taxes for ss as they should). And yes, I know they are regressive and wouldn’t mind if they altered the rates accordingly, but they do raise the max income you have to pay on them every year.</p>

<p>Ugh, I just spent the last two days sequestered in my house doing my late taxes. I feel terrible. Happy it’s done, annoyed I still have to come up with a big check because so many deductions I was hoping for don’t apply to me. Sick of sitting in the same position, but the sun is shining, so I guess I’ll dig in every corner for some money to send them, and take the dogs on a walk.</p>

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<p>

It’s time to admit that SS is not a pension plan, the “surplus” has been spent and is gone, and put SS on a pure pay-as-you-go basis.</p>

<p>Every year, the benefits should be adjusted, and the rates should be adjusted to pay for that year.</p>

<p>Sadly, no politician has the guts.</p>

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<p>I think you mean spxs.</p>

<p>There is also spxu.</p>

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<p>Yes, I meant spxs.</p>

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<p>Have you done any simulations to see if you are going to make money?</p>

<p>Backtesting?</p>

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<p>We are going to lose $90 billion in stimulus if the payroll tax expires. I am not going to benefit by the payroll tax cut next year. My wife will save peanuts.</p>

<p>It is bad economics to eliminate the payroll tax cut, one of the best stimulus programs around.</p>

<p>BCEagle91 is right. Looks like the politicians on both sides are willng to give it up.</p>

<p>Stupid.</p>

<p>As far as funding ss, The projections 75 years out are bs. Nobody knows
what is going to happen in 75 years.
I think people are going to have computer chips in their brains in 75
years.</p>

<p>The lack of creativity I read about ss is mindboggling. Social security doesn’t have to be funded by ss taxes alone.</p>

<p>The increase in top tax rates back to the Clinton tax rates has a much smaller negative affect on the economy than eliminating the payroll tax
cut. </p>

<p>Stupid.</p>

<p>There was a study released last week. Just a 60 year study. Cutting cap
gains taxes did what for the economy? What did the 60 year study show?</p>

<p>I understand the arguments that state, “I benefit more from the top tax rate being low”. I benefit by capital gains taxes at 15 percent". I can
respect those arguments. People acting in their own perceived self
interest. I respect that.</p>

<p>But when I read how important to the economy keeping low tax rates are for the higher income earners, or how important 15 percent cap
gains tax rates are (under Reagan the cap gains tax rates were as high
as 28 percent) show me. Show me the facts. It’s just a fantasy.</p>

<p>I keep reading how bad the deficits are and how interest rates are going
to skyrocket. Well…the financial crisis is going on its 5th year …maybe
6th…the deficit exploded (because the economy imploded). Where is the
big interest rate rise? I keep waiting. I have been waiting over 5 years. I
am sitting on cash and the last I looked, bond buyers are PAYING for
the right to lend money to the US Government.</p>

<p>Let’s look at reality, and when reality doesn’t fit our views, maybe it is
time to change our views.</p>

<p>I mean you, razorsharp. I am not being mean. Do you ever consider that you are wrong? When are the deficits going to hurt us razorsharp?</p>

<p>Are you for income tax cuts or the deficit cut, razorsharp?</p>

<p>You don’t get both. You gotta choose. Which is it, razorsharp? In life,</p>

<p>you get your first choice. You don’t get your second choice. You can be
married or you can be single. You don’t get both. Income Tax cuts or deficit cuts? Don’t tell me you can have both. It is not true. I have
looked at the numbers. Otherwise, I would support income tax cuts to cut the deficit. I am not in love with taxes.</p>

<p>Both income tax cuts and deficit cuts don’t happen.</p>

<p>Choose.</p>

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<p>"Have you done any simulations to see if you are going to make money?</p>

<p>Backtesting?"</p>

<p>I’m not very sophisticated technologically. Next time my son the computer guy is at home, I’ll ask him to do that for me.</p>

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<p>Was on two plane flights yesterday. I saw iPhones (4s, 5s), iPads and a few Kindles and one Android phone. This is quite different from my office where there is more of a mix between iPhones, Android and feature phones. Maybe people that travel a lot prefer smaller devices?</p>

<p>There’s some kind of problem with Intel’s Atom processors and Windows 8. Intel CEO said that Microsoft has bugs that need to be worked out (this in a private meeting that was leaked) while complaints from Microsoft that they are waiting for power optimization software from Intel so that they can support Atom. Leaking stuff in the press about your partners does not look good to future customers.</p>

<p>I read an article about Intel/Microsoft which was similar to what we discussed over the weekend - can Intel and Microsoft pull off the Ultrabook thing? It talked about the problem of price, of consumers buying lots of tablets and not quite as many PCs and how much in disarray PC companies find themselves in having a hard time forecasting sales and building product. I read that there will be more ship-from-Asia than in the past. This is where you order online and the machine gets built and shipped to you. I guess that there is going to be less inventory built that isn’t pre-sold.</p>

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<p><a href=“under%20Reagan%20the%20cap%20gains%20tax%20rates%20were%20as%20high%0Aas%2028%20percent”>quote</a>

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Only for a year or two. I should know. We were forced to sell gazillion shares of stock we held for half a century. It was the year 28% went into effect just to come back down to 15% after we paid the tax at 28%. Not saying the rate should stay low. I agree on higher tax on investment income. Isn’t that where Fed stimulus goes mainly? It seems like a no-brainer to me.</p>

3293

<p>Igloo, that was very bad timing.</p>

<p>There seems to be a disproportionate number of people that work in the computer industry on this site (if we include grown-up kids).</p>

<p>BCEagle91, I like your report. The Windows 8 launch is in a few weeks and there are issues between Intc and Msft? Hmmm…</p>

<p>In a few weeks, do you think there will be lines out the door for Windows 8 products?</p>

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<p>dstark, we were forced. It was a hostile take-over of a perfectly healthy company. The reason I view mergers with suspicion to this day.</p>

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<p>Actually, dstark, you can indeed keep the payroll tax and cut the deficit. What it entails isn’t necessarily any more pleasant than the alternatives though. You just need to slash the benefits/payouts on one or more of the big 4 - Medicare, Medicaid, SS, Defense. If you don’t want to take the pain on the chin this year, you can slash the projected increases of those to minimal or even flat. Easiest (mechanically, not necessarily to pass in Congress) to do so for Medicaid and Defense since they’re already in block form, followed by SS since the Federal government has direct control over COI increases. Medicare will be the toughest given its uncapped nature and immense popularity.</p>

<p>In any event, I’m not getting the sense that either party is going to let the payroll tax cuts expire. I could see the Bush cuts getting rolled back at least partially, but not payroll. There’s too many people affected, it has a natural cap at 104k or whatever it is now (+1 to Dems who don’t want to give more cuts to the rich), and only affects those that are working (+1 to Repubs who play kickball with the “lazy unemployed”)</p>

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<p>It’s many years later. How did that merger work out for the companies?</p>

<p>Was the company put in play by a corporate raider such as Irwin Jacobs, Asher Edelman, Carl Icahn, T Boone Pickens?</p>

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<p>Collectiv…</p>

<p>You have to cut Spending…like you said…if you just cut taxes, the deficit isn’t going to be cut.</p>

<p>This idea that if you cut taxes, the govt is going to grow more than it would otherwise and enough to cut the deficit is nonsense. Doesn’t happen.</p>

<p>And if you want immediate stimulus, not all cuts are the same. The payroll tax gives a large bang for the buck.</p>

<p>Anything can happen, but I just read this weekend the continuation of the payroll tax cuts don’t have much support from either party right now.</p>

<p>If we take care of health care costs, the other deficit issues fade. That is not easy though.</p>

<p>Shifting medicaid costs to the states from the fed, is that really going to cut costs? And is that really going to cut costs by cutting benefits? My
value system is the govt’s role is to help the poor and the disabled so cutting medicaid doesn’t fly well with me.</p>

<p>Defense should be cut.</p>

<p>Going over the fiscal cliff doesn’t bother me. It is short-term bs. Let’s go over the cliff.</p>

3298

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<p>Chapter 11 in 1999 after causing many previously happy employees aches. I don’t know who engineered the takeover.</p>

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<p>They expire unless it’s renewed.</p>

<p>Every article that I’ve read on the matter indicate that there is no support in either party for renewing it. Do you have anything indicating otherwise?</p>

<p>Will there be lines for Windows 8? No. Most people that want it really badly will just buy it online and download it. Will there be lines out the door for Windows 8 computers? No. There will be multiple avenues to buy those products at retail.</p>

<p>People already have products that do separate things. Convertible tablets, while they might be cool, are an additional product and consumers will have to think about whether they need that additional product.</p>

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<p>This is getting a bit political and may be closed. Here’s an interesting article:[In</a> Battle for Dominance, Traders Turn to Life Coaches - Business News - CNBC](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/49236193/]In”>http://www.cnbc.com/id/49236193/)</p>