The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

Parent Cafe
4321

<p>You are backstopped on AAPL - they are actually making a ton of money.</p>

<p>There was news this morning on their product lineups for this year.</p>

<p>iPad Mini is getting the Retina Display. I will buy one of those. I was going to buy an iPad Mini last year but I couldn’t get one in the local stores.</p>

<p>iPad is going to be thinner and lighter. My main complaint about the iPad is that it’s too heavy which is why I like the Mini. I think that I’m going to get the Mini anyways though.</p>

<p>Their computers will get Haswell upgrades (Intel’s new chip).</p>

<p>MacBook Pros will all go Retina.</p>

<hr>

<p>On the rumor side: cheaper iPhone and a 4.8 inch iPhone 6.</p>

4322

<p>I also unloaded the 490 - 475 put spread for a loss of 1.5 so the combination of that with the gain from the 1/19 510 - 500 put spread reduced my loss if aapl stays above 500 on the 25th by 5.7 to a max of ~21. Of course I now have no protection below 500. If aapl goes up further I can probably unload the 535 - 510 put spread. This is not the kind of stuff I had planned and I don’t like doing it. I can probably still buy more here. This is really not an easy stock to trade.</p>

4323

<p>Well…option traders don’t have that much control. :)</p>

<p>I am not quite getting what you want…</p>

<p>If you want to get longer you can just take the put spread off…</p>

<p>Then you are longer above 518 (changes as the spread moves).
You are long the 480-565 call spread…</p>

<p>If you want to get longer at a lower price point…you can buy a few more deep calls…</p>

<p>I am thinking of getting out of 1 spread…</p>

4324

<p>Its very easy what I want - I want to make money. I’ve reduced my lose above 500. I’m really tempted to go all in with buying 5 contracts - deep in the money calls and selling a 535 call, buying a 500 or 505 put and selling a 480 put.</p>

4325

<p>Ok…</p>

4326

<p>one AAPL = 100 WEN</p>

4327

<p>Burgers vs chips.</p>

<p>We’re at a 50% retracement of the internet bubble crash on the $comp.</p>

4328

<p>I need sage advice from the FM people. 1/4 of an hour already cut off.</p>

4329

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<p>I have been astounded at the ignorance among financial commentators and journalists this past year and one half. Apple didn’t run up to 700 by having the P/E ratio balloon up to 70x earnings. Its at 11 1/2 times trailing earnings and its revenue growth over the past four years has been: (in billions)<br>
42.9
65.2
108.2
156.5</p>

<p>and it has about $120 per share in cash and investments. The stock was pushed to where it was by earnings performance…not by speculation. Although its true that I can’t identify why it has faded to $500. :)</p>

<p>Its almost certain not to be able to grow like that again, but at these price levels, I don’t see it as having very much downside. Heck, even Exxon trades at 9 1/2 time earnings in this market.</p>

4330

<p>My stupid emotional trade of the day: 5 aapl 1/25 contracts each of: 440 - 530 call spread, 505 - 480 put spread. Breakeven = 507.49, max gain = 22.51, max loss to 480 = 2.49.</p>

4331

<p>Why am i sensing I should move out of stocks?</p>

4332

<p>I don’t think so. My concern is specifically with aapl. I think it is a horrible stock to own through earnings and plan on selling the day of earnings. If they say anything negative which they usually underguide, I think it will be taken very negatively as opposed to previous times. If anything bad comes out from earnings, this stock is going to be crushed.</p>

4333

<p>I sold 2 of my 3 call spreads in apple…</p>

<p>I like your trade doct…</p>

4334

<p>No chatter tonight? You guys are boring me. :)</p>

<p>I was kind of hoping that appl would go up more slowly. I guess Demark messed that up. I hated buying the 505 calls in when the premium is going to collapse in 2 days. Oh well.</p>

<p>I don’t know what I am going to do with aapl. The 580 calls are a buck. The stock has to rise almost 75 bucks for those options to be in the money.
I would love to see more strikes are added for next week. It is amazing how high the volume is for options that expire this week in aapl. Next week’s options are not getting nearly the play. Yet.</p>

<p>I see fb didn’t move much today.</p>

4335

<p>If you think the stock is going up, but it’s risky to buy options that expire so soon, why not buy Feb or Mar options? Isn’t the extra expense worth the risk? Seems like playing with fire to buy something that will be worthless so quickly.</p>

4336

<p>" Isn’t the extra expense worth the risk?"</p>

<p>Good questions. </p>

<p>Sometimes…</p>

<p>It depends on what you are trying to accomplish.</p>

4337

<p>How about, make some money, guaranteed that you won’t lose it in the next week?</p>

<p>On a celebratory note, I just finished my son’s taxes (from 2011). I know, he should do them himself. 3.7% Federal tax rate.</p>

4338

<p>I bought the jan 19 505-500-495 aapl put butterfly for .87.</p>

<p>(bought 1 505 puts sold 2 500 puts bought 1 495 put.</p>

<p>Makes money if appl closes between 495.87 and 504.13 tomorrow. Max gain at 500. Max gain won’t happen…trading costs to close…</p>

4339

<p>Wow - interesting. Next we’ll see butterflies becoming condors.</p>

4340

<p>I like condors. I didn’t feel like doing a condor on this trade because it would cost more. </p>

<p>I could have bot the 505- 500 put spread and sold the 495-490 put spread.</p>

<p>(buy 505 puts- sell 500 puts and sell 495 puts- buy 490 puts).</p>

<p>Would make money between approximately 503.50 and 491.50.</p>

<p>I think the 500 puts are going to provide a floor for the stock (so the condor isn’t necessary) and the 500 calls a ceiling.</p>

<p>There are many factors affecting the stock so this peg might not happen.</p>

<p>It’s a bet.</p>