The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>Bought 3/16 spy 150 puts, sold 3/16 147 and 3/16 144 puts - total cost = .08</p>

<p>BCE having a nice day.</p>

<p>Good for you BCE. I wasn’t able to get into WU yesterday. Oh well, I’ll wait for a pullback. As for AAPL, it looks like 435 is the floor for now and is trying to climb up towards the 465 high set on the 24th.</p>

<p>Some of the smart traders that I listen too basically have said that you shouldn’t be entering new positions now (they’ve said that for about a week). You should have already been invested and just riding things up. I added small positions in stuff that I already had last week but no more until we get some kind of a pause. They’re saying that 2013 may be a very good year but no market goes up in a straight line.</p>

<p>Anyone playing VMware? It had a big drop. I can’t figure out if it will go down more like Apple or rise up like RIMM?</p>

<p>Sorry razor, not playing VMW. verdict: Undecided. I’m staying away. Sitting on the sidelines.</p>

<p>I am waiting for CNBC to trot out a trader who says he has the pair trade on: short AAPL and long RIMM… sure, put it on back in Sept 2012 when AAPL was at 700 and RIMM at 6.50. I guess he would be taking it off now. For all I know they have talked to somebody already. It’s the kind of thing they do. Whichever way the market moves, interview the guy that called it that way.</p>

<p>VMW is down over 20% today… yikes! I nibbled on STX (down 10%) and its not working out too well so far.</p>

<p>I have been lightening up overall, and as usual in these situations it is a bit painful and frustrating as the S&P and Dow continue to make new highs.</p>

<p>doct, I read your post. I guess my 143 puts aren’t looking too good. :)</p>

<p>I don’t get some of the pair trades. I know there are firms that do these trades but what they are doing is beyond me.</p>

<p>A friend came into my office and told me about his new Ivy Bridge Xeon server and how great it was. He also told me that he’s running multiple VMWare VMs on it and how great the VMWare software is. I think that all of the stuff that he has at home from VMWare is free.</p>

<p>Then they reported earnings and layoffs after the close yesterday.</p>

<p>Hmmmmmm.</p>

<p>I bought one Feb 1 245 put in AMZN for $3.66. Options are now closed so I hope I get some return tomorrow. The stock was down about 15 in after hours but now is up even though they didn’t meet expectations.</p>

<p>razorsharp, does that put expire this week?</p>

<p>The put closed around 3.50 with the stock around 268?</p>

<p>It expires February 1, 2013. I just bought one put since it’s gambling money. It looks like I just gambled it away. I was betting AMZN would not meet expectations and I was right but the stock is up $18 right now. Crazy.</p>

<p>yeah…amzn lives in a different universe…</p>

<p>I wonder what the short interest is in amzn? Why would the stock trade at 287? Amzn missed on both earnings and revenues.</p>

<p>Looks like a short squeeze.</p>

<p>Funny press release. The first thing they report is “operating cash flow”, then “free cash flow” then “net sales” then “operating income”… and finally, 10 lines down, fifth paragraph, “Net income decreased 45% to $97 million in the fourth quarter, or $0.21 per diluted share, compared with $177 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, in fourth quarter 2011.”</p>

<p>and for the year, “Net loss was $39 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared with net income of $631 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, in 2011.”</p>

<p>Will they be able to make a lot of money once they take over the world?</p>

<p>I’ve been amazed at Amazon since the 1990s and it isn’t something that I will ever invest in. A quick trade? Maybe. But that’s it.</p>

<p>Coming home tonight and listening to some woman on Bloomberg talking about amzn, I was thinking that I must live in an alternate universe. She was saying that amzn has been unloved unlike aapl and that’s why its price is so low. I just don’t get it. I was planning on selling puts on it tomorrow expecting the stock to go down.</p>

<p>I looked at the numbers for amzn. The numbers look sh@@@@.</p>

<p>The numbers going forward look sh@@@@@.</p>

<p>I can’t see selling puts naked in amzn. The stock can drop more than 100 bucks someday.</p>

<p>^^not going to happen anytime soon</p>

<p>I don’t care.</p>

<p>Selling naked puts in amzn is too dangerous for me. </p>

<p>Maybe I would sell a put spread so I have some downside protection.</p>

<p>Probably not though…</p>

<p>There is not a price anywhere near where it is trading where I feel comfortable owning this stock.</p>

<p>When this stock goes, it can really go.</p>

<p>When I sell puts, I want to think, “Yeah, I would like to own the stock down there”. Of course, once it gets down there, I might change my mind. :)</p>

<p>(I hope nobody reading this owns amzn. If somebody does own amzn, ignore this). The stock is doing well. What do I know?</p>