<p>It may get resolved this afternoon.</p>
<p>[Eurogroup</a> to discuss Cyprus bailout at 1830 GMT | Reuters](<a href=“http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/eurozone-cyprus-teleconference-idUSL6N0CACQL20130318?feedType=RSS&feedName=bondsNews&rpc=43]Eurogroup”>http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/eurozone-cyprus-teleconference-idUSL6N0CACQL20130318?feedType=RSS&feedName=bondsNews&rpc=43)</p>
<p>I read that the banks are expected to be closed until Thursday. How do people and businesses operate when the banks are closed for five days in a row?</p>
<p>UK has suspended payments for pensioners into Cyprus bank accounts. </p>
<p>As someone noted at some point a bank run becomes a rational policy. If the Russians withdraw their deposits (and why wouldnt they) then do these banks have enough capital to stay open? </p>
<p>Does anyone think the ECB has thought all of this through and is prepared?</p>
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<p>Are you kidding? Their policy is to shoot first and pick up the pieces arguing about them forever.</p>
<p>Exactly my thought- if they manage the immediately next move on the chessboard so poorly, how flat footed will they be for the reaction and the reaction to the reaction? </p>
<p>Cyprus has a GDP of $24B USD and this article says Russians have about $19B in banks, $12B in loans and $40B in business interest in Cyprus.
[Russian</a> money in Cyprus hit by savings seizure | Boston Herald](<a href=“http://bostonherald.com/business/business_markets/2013/03/russian_money_in_cyprus_hit_by_savings_seizure]Russian”>http://bostonherald.com/business/business_markets/2013/03/russian_money_in_cyprus_hit_by_savings_seizure)</p>
<p>A policy of encouraging Russian withdrawal could be devastating to the economy.</p>
<p>Wow, Russians fully dominate them. Isn’t this the country where UN forces are permanently deployed?</p>
<p>Well, my first worry was over-blown: there isn’t a panic. But I’m concerned about how this process has, it seems, deflected panic rather than address it. Putting off has been the way of this mess. The markets are used to that and they’re used to deals falling apart. I should have seen that but it doesn’t make sense to expect stability. </p>
<p>As this continues to work out, I fear a lot of things but I don’t know what will dominate. Italy’s banks shouldn’t exist. Neither should Spain’s or Portugal’s and maybe France’s. So as this works out, people will worry about what happens with them. </p>
<p>I’m also seeing this as a power issue. This appears to be an assertion of German control over the Eurozone. They want x and they don’t allow y so z must happen. Z means you get screwed. I don’t care that letting the banks fail would do a version of z because that is different than having Germany imposed z. This makes me believe more and more that the Eurozone is a function of German power.</p>
<p>And that raises a question: this is being done to Russia. I gather there’s about 27B Euros in foreign money in Cyprus with something between 15B and 20B Euros coming from Russia. That is a confiscation of $2B dollars. And to carry this through, that means Germany is taking money from Russia. Just plain taking it. I remember that movie. I don’t want to live through it.</p>
<p>All these actions have tended to be viewed in the past as creditor versus debtor with the northern states representing the creditors versus the southern debtors. Now it’s looking more like Germany exercises the power and chooses to advance its interests, which happen to align with creditors - including foreign buyers of sovereign debt, at least for now.</p>
<p>Well I wrote a longer post and it evaporated. There are many battles going on and Germany vs other countries is a big one. </p>
<p>I think today in Croatia, there are demonstrations against Germany.</p>
<p>It sounds like Cyprus banking system is a big mess heavily used for money laundering. Taxing big deposits doesn’t sound so bad any more to me. I am not sure if I’d be happy to bail them out using my money.</p>
<p>Big accounts fine. Tax them. But honor the insurance. Bond holders are supposed to take the hit before depositors. Obviously, bondholders are getting special status.</p>
<p>So far, extremely quiet in the futures markets.</p>
<p>Gartman said that taking money from the Russian mob is not a smart decision. I suspect the mob will get it back the old fashion way – steal it.</p>
<p>Layers and layers to this situation. Cyprus and Russia have been partners for centuries. Don’t get me going on the blowing up of the Mari power station because Cyprus was going to protect munitions taken off a Russian ship bound for Syria by the U.N. They stored them next to our big power station and one night they just blew up. Too much sun. Sad thing, the government then raised everyone’s power bills once we got power back and took no responsibility for that disaster. I assume that they wanted to spread the pain to everyone like they always do and protect their buddies, the Russians and let them know that everyone is going to suffer together. But then there is the German election coming up…
yada yada. The European organization is not a union; it is lose knit and I wonder if it can make it. I hope so, actually.</p>
<p>And remember Cypriots are like you and me. They have families and mortgages and retirement funds and kids in college. Some are poor and are just getting by and some are middle class and some are rich. Most are honest and hard working and are not laundering money. My heart goes out to them.</p>
<p>I guess we are in a waiting game in Cyprus.</p>
<p>I guess there are some expectations that aapl is going to raise its dividend.</p>
<p>[Apple</a> gets juice on eve of ‘dividend anniversary’ - The Tell - MarketWatch](<a href=“Opinion and Commentary - MarketWatch”>http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/18/apple-gets-juice-on-eve-of-dividend-anniversary/)</p>
<p>[Cyprus</a> bailout: Government is working on ‘Plan B’ as defeat looms - live | Business | guardian.co.uk](<a href=“Eurozone crisis live: Cyprus crisis deepens as MPs reject bailout terms | Business | The Guardian”>Eurozone crisis live: Cyprus crisis deepens as MPs reject bailout terms | Business | The Guardian)</p>
<p><a href=“http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/18/cyprus-savings-raid-bank-robbery[/url]”>http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/18/cyprus-savings-raid-bank-robbery</a></p>
<p>"As we have seen since the sovereign debt crisis began, the euroclub has bullied its poorer members into swallowing poisonous austerity and social regressiveness in order to keep a bust system on the road. In so doing they have created the conditions for such clowns like Beppe Grillo and thugs such as Golden Dawn.</p>
<p>A friend of mine has a mid-level job at the European Commission. Over the past few years, through Greece and Ireland and Portugal and Spain, he has kept up a resolutely chipper air. This weekend, as details of the Cyprus deal came out, he sent me this email: “Is this what the European financial system has come down to? A direct appropriation of savings because it cannot cure its systemic problems. It is not just the banks that are bankrupt. It is the whole bloody model that has run its course and we are in denial.”</p>
<p><a href=“Social Europe”>Social Europe;
<p>We bailed out AIG and now they are trying to sue us for bailing them out. I wish there’s a way to bail them out half way. Taxing the big deposits may amount to that. Bailing out honest hard working people is one thing but who is happy with bailing out crooks. Should Germans be happy about that?</p>
<p>Overseas, I like your link. I am not sure I agree with the author’s other posts, but I like this one.</p>
<p>Germany is protecting their banks. Germany is not a saint.</p>
<p>I agree the aig stuff is bs.</p>
<p>I guess nobody is long lulu. On some women, I don’t see a problem with the pants.</p>
<p>[Lululemon</a> recalls yoga pants that are too revealing](<a href=“http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/news/lululemon-recalls-yoga-pants-too-110510374.html?.b=news%2F&.cf3=&.cf4=1&.cf5=Associated+Press&.cf6=%2Fnews%2F&.h=NEWS&.ts=1363696988&.intl=us&.lang=en]Lululemon”>http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/news/lululemon-recalls-yoga-pants-too-110510374.html?.b=news%2F&.cf3=&.cf4=1&.cf5=Associated+Press&.cf6=%2Fnews%2F&.h=NEWS&.ts=1363696988&.intl=us&.lang=en)</p>
<p>I read the Cyprus papers daily and yes, there has been a concerted effort for the past few months from the German politicians to talk about money laundering and the Russians and I did wonder about it. No one is perfect for sure!</p>
<p>Of course, everyone is protecting their interest. You could say we were protecting our own interest in bailing AIG out, too. Single currency is good for Germany and they will do what they have to do to protect euro zone. If they found a way to do the minimum to prevent the euro zone breakup and make the bank work for it, good for them. We were too generous with banks. 5 years later, they are doing great. $800/glass wine is flowing again in Manhattan. The rest who paid for it are not doing that great.</p>