<p>[Fed’s</a> Williams: May start tapering QE this summer - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-williams-may-start-tapering-193018125.html]Fed’s”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-williams-may-start-tapering-193018125.html)</p>
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<p>Well then, why do you think gold is going down now?</p>
<p>Are you implying that my head is up my ----? I have no idea why it’s going up or down</p>
<p>Lol…</p>
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<p>LOL</p>
<p>You said usually has head up … I figured you would be the unusual one who actually knows the secret. </p>
<p>IBD changed its market call to Uptrend Under Pressure.</p>
<p>I’m contemplating really put my head up my —. I’m thinking of buying the 6/22 155 spy put and selling the 12/21 140 put for a total cost of roughly 0. If the pattern of the last few years holds, this should work out. Anybody see any issues?</p>
<p>I think when u get your butt kicked it is ok to take a breath.</p>
<p>You know the issues…doubtful but you can lose on both ends …extremely doubtful…but not a zero chance…</p>
<p>Well anything is possible but I think at some point in the next 2 or 3 months the market is going to be lower than it is now. I’m pretty confident on this. I’m less confident but still confident that at the end of the year, the spy will be above 140. There are 4 possibilities:</p>
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<p>The way the bollinger bands are narrowing and arching, I have to question whether the S&P may go up. That’s right I said up. Then again bollinger bands gave a sell signal on April 3rd so maybe that will stay in plan.</p>
<p>Doct, you don’t have the timing in your post…</p>
<p>The 155 puts can go to zero and you have to wait 6 months for the 140 puts to go to zero.
He’ll the 155 puts don’t have to go to zero for there to be problems. They can be 3 bucks and cause problems…</p>
<p>I don’t like that…
I dislike this trade… If I wanted to get short … I would not do this trade.</p>
<p>My opinion…
Try to match the expiration better… How low do you think spy will drop?</p>
<p>Japan is not fooling around. Japan is turning on the printing press.</p>
<p>Looks like I may be able to get back all of my loss in my dxj calls that happened when the yen went the other way.</p>
<p>Nice…</p>
<p>I’m really not liking what I’m seeing in this market. Hopefully I won’t have to roll out my 4/5 aapl 420 and 4/5 goog 760 puts.</p>
<p>Goog is probably getting hit because of the fb announcement…</p>
<p>I am not going to sell weekly puts in aapl. First time in awhile I am not going to have a position in aapl.</p>
<p>In terms of those spy calendar put spreads. I could also do the 155 6/22 for 3.78 and sell 2 12/31 125 puts for 3.88</p>
<p>Well I like the 125 sell better…</p>
<p>You don’t like buying a jun155 put selling a jun153 put…</p>
<p>Or buying a jun 155 put and selling apr 152 puts in a ratio and rolling if spy drops to 152</p>
<p>I admit I haven’t looked at prices which are important </p>
<p>How
Many jun options do you want to buy? If it just a couple, do any trade you want…</p>
<p>Doct, the following is why I asked you how far do you think spy is likely to drop…</p>
<p>The 6/22 puts are trading for 4.02 I break even at 150.98.</p>
<p>If I buy the 6/22 155-153 put spread for .75…
My break even is 154.20. Adding .05 for commissions</p>
<p>I make 150 percent if spy closes 153 or lower…</p>
<p>At 153, I am still down if I just bought the 155 puts… </p>
<p>Below 145 or so… Buying the the jun puts alone is better…</p>
<p>I am comparing similar dollar amounts in this comparison…</p>
<p>If you want to sell the dec 125 puts and buy the jun 155-153 put spread … You can do that…</p>
<p>So what scenario do you like? </p>
<p>The answer is slightly subjective…</p>
<p>I expect a 10% correction that’s why I don’t want to own a 155 - 153 spread. I’m selling the 125 puts to cover the cost of the 155 puts. Maybe there’s a better way buying a 155 - 140 put spread but I haven’t looked that carefully.</p>
<p>Mickey Dees is having a good day. You guys buying Bic Macs or what? 30 yr bond rate dipping below 3% for the first time since mid Jan and is lowest rate of the year right now. I thought bonds were officially declared “dead”.</p>