The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

<p>I don’t know what the other rules are but I find this rule to be true at times…</p>

<p>““The toughest thing is to take profits on a naked put. You have to spend money to close out the position and lock in the gain. Easy to give in to temptation to let it ride while watching your profit disappear. ”
— dana barnes
On The 5 Rules of Options Trading”</p>

<p>Saw the above in Barrons.</p>

<p>And this looks interesting…</p>

<p>[Facebook</a> Phone App Could Be Headache for Google - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-phone-app-could-headache-155519628.html]Facebook”>http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-phone-app-could-headache-155519628.html)</p>

<p><a href=“Bloomberg - Are you a robot?”>Bloomberg - Are you a robot?;

<p>[A</a> world of cheap money: Six years of low interest rates in search of some growth | The Economist](<a href=“The Economist | World News, Economics, Politics, Business & Finance”>Six years of low interest rates in search of some growth)</p>

<p>[Investing:</a> The war on “the war on savers” | The Economist](<a href=“http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2013/04/investing-0]Investing:”>The war on "the war on savers")</p>

<p>Stockton: debt holders vs pensioners…</p>

<p><a href=“http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/blogs/daily-ticker/stockton-calif-draws-battlelines-between-pensioners-wall-street-140055506.html?.b=news%2F&.cf3=News+and+Analysis&.cf4=3&.cf5=Daily+Ticker&.cf6=%2Fnews%2F&.h=NEWS&.ts=1365290400&.intl=us&.lang=en[/url]”>http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/blogs/daily-ticker/stockton-calif-draws-battlelines-between-pensioners-wall-street-140055506.html?.b=news%2F&.cf3=News+and+Analysis&.cf4=3&.cf5=Daily+Ticker&.cf6=%2Fnews%2F&.h=NEWS&.ts=1365290400&.intl=us&.lang=en&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>

That’s just great. Like I need more cloud (actual clouds up in the sky not the ones using virtual servers) and food pictures cluttering up my phone Home screen. What I need are “breaking news” about a stock at least ten minutes before the HFTs sniff it out and act on it.</p>

<p>I guess Facebook Home will not be on your phone.</p>

<p>Driverless cars are coming eventually…</p>

<p>[Big</a> data roadblocks will slow driverless cars until 2040, analyst says - Network World](<a href=“http://m.networkworld.com/news/2013/031513-driverless-cars-267766.html#mobify-bookmark]Big”>http://m.networkworld.com/news/2013/031513-driverless-cars-267766.html#mobify-bookmark)</p>

<p>^ So it is going to take 15 extra years to work out the data privacy policies of a product that will be ready in a few years?</p>

<p>That is just stupid.</p>

<p>I think the biggest issue is liability. Unless Google et. al. get legislative relief, why would they want to sell this product? Every accident will lead to a lawsuit.</p>

<p>I think the guy who said 2040 is talking out of his a…</p>

<p>However liability is a big issue. I agree.</p>

<p>I think owners of the cars will still pay auto insurance. The cost of insurance should be less as there will be fewer accidents. </p>

<p>Looks like the cost of owning a driverless car won’t be too bad. There will be some infrastructure costs.</p>

<p><a href=“http://m.usatoday.com/article/news/2058637[/url]”>http://m.usatoday.com/article/news/2058637&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>The s & p is 1.3 percent down from its peak, qqq - 3.9 percent, iwm - 3.4 percent, Dow - 1 percent down from their recent peaks. What’s the gamble here, buy or sell?</p>

<p>This is a great article and something I’ve thought about: [Opportunity</a> Costs Matter - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“Opportunity Costs Matter | Seeking Alpha”>Opportunity Costs Matter | Seeking Alpha)</p>

<p>How much value are you really adding especially with short term gains vs lower taxed long term gains and how much time are you wasting doing this. I expect for most of us, what we do is not worth it but we enjoy the gambling aspect of trading.</p>

<p>That is a great article…opportunity costs are very important. </p>

<p>I think when you are young you should take chances.</p>

<p>I weigh opportunity costs all the time. I give up money for time.
If interest rates were 5 percent, I doubt I would sell puts in aapl. </p>

<p>I think some people enjoy trading and don’t care how much they make per hour. I should probably get a job. Lol</p>

<p>The bottom seems to be falling out of goog just like what happened with aapl once that $1000 price target got put on them. Glad I didn’t sell any puts on goog</p>

<p>Yeah…</p>

<p>I don’t know why Jack Bogle thinks the market might have a drop of 50 percent at some point in the next decade. That is pretty severe.</p>

<p>His call of 7 percent a year seems more reasonable.</p>

<p>I think a 50 percent drop is unlikely unless the market really heats up…</p>

<p>I sold some may 55 nke puts…</p>

<p>I have an order in fb to sell puts…
Nothing major in fb…</p>

<p>Earnings season is here…</p>

<p>So…</p>

<p>Is selling premium before earnings worth the risk?</p>

<p>You think Bogle is wrong? He’s basing it on recent history and based on the issues facing us in the future, I would say its a good bet.</p>

<p>I think Bogle is going to be wrong. </p>

<p>How many times has the stock market dropped 50 percent?</p>

<p>[Dow</a> Jones Closing History](<a href=“http://useconomy.about.com/od/stockmarketcomponents/a/Dow_History.htm]Dow”>Dow Jones History: Top Highs and Lows Since 1929)</p>

<p>When he said 50 percent he was throwing out a rough number. His point was expect big declines in the future just like the past and to stay invested which has been the correct call.</p>

<p>I heard what Bogle said.</p>

<p>[Bogle:</a> Be Prepared for Ride Out Drops of up to 50% in Stocks](<a href=“http://www.moneynews.com/InvestingAnalysis/Bogle-stocks-declines-cycle/2013/04/02/id/497370]Bogle:”>http://www.moneynews.com/InvestingAnalysis/Bogle-stocks-declines-cycle/2013/04/02/id/497370)</p>

<p>you don’t believe 25 - 30%??? maybe more - you’re quite an optimist: </p>

<p>Individuals should invest in stocks for the long term and be prepared for at least two declines of 25 to 30 percent, maybe even 50 percent in the next 10 years, says Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle.</p>

<p>and I do believe we will have a 50% drop contrary to what the history of before 2000 shows. We are not in the 1950’s or 60’s, its a different world with issues that have never existed in history. That being said, I bought the 6/22 155 - 153 put spread for .79</p>

<p>I commented on the 50 percent.</p>

<p>Do I think there are going to be two declines of 25 to 30 percent?</p>

<p>Maybe…</p>

<p>If there are two declines of 25-30 percent, I would bet investors are not going to double their money in 10 years which bogle also says.</p>

<p>"you don’t believe 25 - 30%??? maybe more - you’re quite an optimist: </p>

<p>Individuals should invest in stocks for the long term and be prepared for at least two declines of 25 to 30 percent, maybe even 50 percent in the next 10 years, says Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle.</p>

<p>and I do believe we will have a 50% drop contrary to what the history of before 2000 shows. We are not in the 1950’s or 60’s, its a different world with issues that have never existed in history. That being said, I bought the 6/22 155 - 153 put spread for .79</p>

<p>I’m smiling about the trade.</p>

<p>You may be right.</p>