<p>GOOG looks set to be monetizing YouTube. They are apparently going to charge for channels - $1.99/month. I could see television stations putting shows up so that you could watch the shows whenever you wanted to. This would be the Holy Grail of cable tv for consumers - a la carte’ programming. They just have to sign up the networks.</p>
<p>That is an interesting development. </p>
<p>Goog and aapl on fire…</p>
<p>Sold more intc puts…</p>
<p>Now i am going to wait at least a few minutes…</p>
<p>What is the best way - probability and profit wise of playing goog and aapl with options?</p>
<p>As a general rule, The higher the probablity the less you are going to make… </p>
<p>Buying in the money call spreads or selling out of the money puts spreads give you a higher probability of making money than just buying a stock, right? Your profits are limited though. Percentage wise you can still do well with these spreads. </p>
<p>When aapl was around 405 and we were talking about the butterfly and I compared the butterfly to call spreads. You liked the upside better with the butterfly. The probability was higher you would make money with the call spreads. </p>
<p>Selling otm money puts has a high probability of success but you don’t make much.
Calendar or time spreads have interesting characteristics. </p>
<p>When you first put them on… Your upside is limited. But if one leg expires worthless and gou are long the second leg… You have lots of upside… </p>
<p>… You can get a little more complicated… You can combine trades…
You can put on a butterfly in the near month or two and buy calls in a farther out month. If the butterfly works, the cost of your putting on your position decreases…</p>
<p>Just to look back at a call spread I think I mentioned… </p>
<p>The 405-410 call spread. The cost was around 2.50. The most you can make is 2.50, but that is a 100 percent return. Percentage wise aapl has to go over 800 to get that return in the stock. The downside… Spread can go to zero.</p>
<p>One thing you can look at is buying otm butterflies or spreads. They are cheaper than itm butterflies or spreads. Great upside. Limited downside. Probabilty of success is lower. </p>
<p>There are other strategies too. You have done some. Buy a far out month itm or at the money strike sell near term otm strikes against it. </p>
<p>I think that is more than enough for now.</p>
<p>And no… I am not getting specific… That is your job… Your choice.</p>
<p>Best way… Depends on what you want…</p>
<p>Yeah - I realize this. I’m trying to figure out the optimum balance between risk - reward.</p>
<p>Well… That is kind of a personal decision. How much risk you are comfortable with you find out after you put on the trades and they go south. </p>
<p>You can’t learn that from me or guys on cnbc. I guess you can learn about strategies, but once you put them on… You are kind of on your own.</p>
<p>Aapl premiums are higher than intc premiums. They should be because aapl is more volatile. In a perfect world a trader should make the same in aapl or intc. Otherwise everybody would trade aapl. Everybody is trading aapl. Hmmm…</p>
<p>Sold 5/10 iwm 93 puts = .17, bought more 6/22 qqq 63 calls, bought 6/22 f 12 calls.</p>
<p>Ok… Good luck…</p>
<p>I am going to miss part of the hft duscussion on cnbc. Bummer. Lol</p>
<p>Bob Pisani did a good job.</p>
<p>Bill Gates… Not so good.</p>
<p>Diamonds are a girl’s best friend:</p>
<p>[TIF</a> - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com](<a href=“StockCharts.com”>StockCharts.com)</p>
<p>I just assume the stock market is up everyday. Lol</p>
<p>The dia chart is interesting. The volume looks like it is hitting lows…</p>
<p>I thought investors were investing their cash in the market. The public isn’t buying dia or there is less professional participation.</p>
<p>[Buffett</a> Doesn?t Practice What He Preaches: Altucher | Breakout - Yahoo! Finance](<a href=“Buffett Doesn’t Practice What He Preaches: Altucher”>Buffett Doesn’t Practice What He Preaches: Altucher)</p>
<p>No. Buffet doesn’t practice what he preaches, but he is a genius.</p>
<p>A good article on the long wait on Intel for a competitive phone chip. What they will have in early 2014 looks very impressive. They still have to deliver on 4G though. If they can’t, then phone companies have to add a Qualcomm chip for that. But at least their process advantage is going to really shine.</p>
<p>[AnandTech</a> | Intel?s Silvermont Architecture Revealed: Getting Serious About Mobile](<a href=“http://anandtech.com/show/6936/intels-silvermont-architecture-revealed-getting-serious-about-mobile]AnandTech”>Intel’s Silvermont Architecture Revealed: Getting Serious About Mobile)</p>
<p>BCEagle91, thanks for the link. I appreciate it.</p>
<p>I am thinking of owning some intc for several months and some for several years. As a percentage of my net worth not so much. I like to sleep at night. I sleep better if an investment can’t hurt me. I guess the downside is the investment then is too small to help me much. I guess I am choosing the downside but I do want to own some intc.</p>
<p>I like owning stocks in companies with new product cycles and new markets. I don’t like owning stocks in declining markets like pcs. That is the downsise of owning intc. I like the dividend. I think the dividend coverage is good enough.</p>
<p>Can an investor make 10 percent a year in intc over the next several years? I think so.</p>
<p>I have been thinking about intc for awhile. I told a trading friend I was going to buy intc in December. I didn’t buy it though. No reason why I didn’t. I should have bought intc. I would have been off to a good start. Lol.</p>
<p>Anyway…I am putting on a bullish position in intc. I want the stock to go lower as I buy it because I am still a buyer. I don’t mind losing…at first. :)</p>
<p>That is some of my thinking. If I knew intc was going to work for sure I would buy tons, but I don’t.</p>
<p>And people actually got paid a lot of money to produce these results</p>
<p>I gotta get a job as an investment advisor.</p>
<p><a href=“http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2013/05/05/going-public-endowment-performance-at-our-great-state-universities-2/[/url]”>http://allaboutalpha.com/blog/2013/05/05/going-public-endowment-performance-at-our-great-state-universities-2/</a></p>
<p>The semiconductor business is cyclical - someone comes up with a new product like a VCR or a programmable washing machine and they sell a lot of them and a lot of semiconductors and then everyone has one and so growth stalls and then you have to invent the next new things. We’ve had PCs, laptops, netbooks, ultrabooks, phones, tablets, convertibles, etc. Intel has that process advantage and that’s hard to ignore. They also have the PC and server businesses which are the most profitable parts of the semi industry. Declining PCs and servers are not good for Intel. Fortunately servers aren’t declining - all of those mobile devices need servers.</p>
<p>The question is can Intel make very good margins on their phone and tablet chips. The reason for Atom is that it’s a small chip. They couldn’t make money with their PC chips - they are too big which means that you fit fewer of them on a wafer so they cost more to make. Atom chips are far cheaper to make so hopefully they can get some fat margins on them. We should know if they have some design wins by the end of the year (assuming that they don’t slip). We should then see how they are received in 2014.</p>
<p>If they do, wouldn’t they become too expensive to own? </p>
<p>To sleep well at night, nothing beats index funds. You can hold it as long as you wish since they never go out of business.</p>