The investment..speculation, out right gambling thread

http://www.barrons.com/articles/markets-suffer-as-china-depletes-reserves-1454736564

Not being a subscriber, I can’t log in. As far as Deutsche Bank and other European banks are concerned, rumor has it that they have signicant exposure to commodities and that’s why they’re getting hit so hard.

If you google this…

Markets Suffer as China Depletes Reserves

You can read the article.

This explains one of the things that going on.

Including what is happening with Deutche Bank.

yes I remember the soverign wealth story from bloomberg. I don’t understand how the barron’s article through google is free and through their site requires a subscription?

When you read content off the Google search results you are accessing a cached copy of the original article. This way you are bypassing content security of the original site. This is not limited to barron’s site.

As I’ve mentioned, I’ve increased my leverage on the long side as the market has gone done and am getting quite nervous. I’m now thinking of unloading some of these positions, and maybe buy put spreads and selling call spreads to pay for them instead of selling put spreads. What do you think? So for you experts out there, is there a better way to reduce the cost of protection?

I obviously don’t know anything about your background or your financial situation. But for 99% of people, my advice would be the same - the best way to lower your costs is not to be trading options to begin with. In the long run, almost every non-professional ends up losing money. If someone just can’t resist, I tell them to think of it like playing craps at Vegas … you should not be going there to make money; instead, you’re going there budgeting to lose a certain number of dollars per hour of time that you are gambling and you’re just doing it because it’s a form of entertainment or a way to spend time with friends, like going to the movies or a baseball game. You’ve got to stay within your total entertainment budget.

Unfortunately, most people, especially men, view this advice as an attack on their virility or something. If a 13% drop in the market is creating more pain than someone can tolerate, then they should probably just reduce their long-term exposure to the stock market a bit rather than start trading options.

@Doct,
You can buy put spreads and sell call spreads to get less long if that’s what you want.

Just figure out the p&l over different price points. Figure out the p&l over various expirations if the options in your account have different expirations. Look at how volatility changes your p&l if appropriate to your situation.

If you are uncomfortable, your position is too large.

“Unfortunately, most people, especially men, view this advice as an attack on their virility or something.”

I have to admit that I’m not feeling as virile as I used to be - maybe it’s my age or the market - maybe both :(( !

Last year I was successful buying xle put spreads and selling spy put spreads. I don’t want to have to sell any more spy spreads. I’ve got enough of them that were sold way otm that are now itm. I did roll out spy 2/12 190 puts to 9/30 180 - 155 put spreads today. Got any ideas for some kind of pair trade? I guess I want them correlated if I buy puts and sell calls.

No. No ideas on pair trades.

If I do a pair trade, I have to be correct on two issues, not just one issue. It’s hard enough to be right on one issue. :slight_smile:

A guy I know sold scty feb 12 puts with a 19 strike price. The stock was above 26. Scty’s earning came out today and the stock crash and burned. Right now SCTY is trading below 18. It’s an Elon Musk stock.

The same guy is short the Feb 12 puts in Tesla with a 120 strike price. Earnings are coming out before expiration. I don’t like selling puts before expiration. I don’t like selling puts in stocks trading over 100 either.

Elon Musk’s stocks haven’t been doing too well.

Anybody who shorted linkedin puts before earnings is probably not feeling too good.

I would never short what you’ve just named. I don’t like the stocks to begin with and only short puts in something I would like to own. I’m short puts in aapl. I feel the most comfortable in things like spy and iwm specifically because if they go to zero, that will be the least of my worries.

I am going to sell some US Treasury bonds today that I have owned for a really long time. Largest position is a 7 year zero - The yield is around 1.65%. Also have a 26 year (remaining maturity) bond that yields less than 2.5%. Unless the Fed goes to negative rates I can’t stay in these positions. Of course after I sell I will buy a short term note that yields around .5%… oh well.

I’m a little more aggressive with my posts in this thread compared to the retirement thread. This is the investment, speculation, gambling thread. :slight_smile:

I sold puts in spwr with a 27 strike price with the stock above 30. The stock plummeted to 19 so I am long the stock.

I sold weekly calls with a 24, 25, 26 and 27 strike price.

My idea was some calls would expire worthless. I would receive the premium and my breakeven would decline. I would sell stock at a smaller loss if I got assigned or sell calls forever until I get even. :slight_smile:

The stock rallied and I was assigned on some 24 and 25 level calls so my position was cut over 80 percent. Now the stock is below 22, my position is smaller so I am not so aggressive. :slight_smile: I don’t know what I am going to do. I may just keep the stock. What a concept! :slight_smile:

@NJres, I find these interest rates troubling. The returns are so low.

I don’t think stocks are going to have huge returns for awhile. Maybe if stocks drop low enough, future returns will be huge. :slight_smile:

So…Instead of buying stock, I bought some conoco phillips 7 years notes yielding over 5 percent.

I bought some 7 year notes in a mlp yielding over 6 percent. I figure if the mlp goes bad, the stock goes to zero, the company is reorganized. No more mlp. I end up trading debt for newly issued stock. The company ends up with less debt making the new shares more valuable and the company profitable. I make a small amount of money. That’s the scenario I like in my mind if things get worse for the company. :slight_smile:

@NJres, you don’t buy corporate debt?

^ I went showshoeing today. In keeping with the thread-I invested in my health, speculated that it would help aerobically , and gambled I would not fall (didn’t). :wink:

@rockymtnhigh,

My wife went snowshoeing last weekend and did the same thing as you. :slight_smile:

wti is down to 26.99! What the h**l is going on???

I was busy today and I missed the last hour and a half. The stock market was having a good day.

@Doct, what happened? And why do you think oil prices are below $27?

Bloomberg:

WTI Crude -0.53
26.92 -1.93
9:04 PM EST

Yes.

So @Doct, what’s your opinion why oil is back below $27?