Pretty sure he was joking.
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@barrons found out that Wisconsin posted their CDS data for Fall 2023. Here is the updated waitlist stats for the past four years:
Not a 76% chance of getting off the waitlist like I had guessed, but still decent odds. Much better than the 5% odds that the Michigan waitlist is offering.
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Thank you @Pilate, appreciate all the work you put into this and helping everyone on here!!! In the meantime, my son will be committing elsewhere and is relatively happy with that choice, but knows thereās āsomeā chance that he may end up at Wisconsinā¦ IF that time comes, heāll have to choose, and either way weāll be thrilled for him!!!
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Great to know, thanks! Though in some ways knowing there is a reasonable shot makes things harderā¦
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Thank you @pilate for all of you efforts. Is the the āadmitted off waitlistā # those offered admission or those who were offered admission and accepted?
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Iām pretty sure those are only offers. I canāt believe that Wisconsin filled more than half of their entering class with kids off the waitlist. I imagine the yield rate might be fairly low when students have already committed to another school.
Hey Wisconsin, if youāre reading this, my kid will ABSOLUTELY accept if you offer him a spot off the waitlist. 
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Yeah, if they donāt want things to drag out and waste resources week after week, wave after wave, add yours and my kid in the first round of offers!!! 
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Donāt forget us!
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And us! 
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See, weāre all trying to help UW-Madison wrap this thing up!!! Win-win for them!!!
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The thread of Class of 2025 also shows a 30% got-off rate of waitlists āover the last five yearsā (2016-2020?).
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Thatās interesting, because Wisconsin doesnāt report in the CDS that they had a waitlist prior to Fall 2020. That didnāt make sense, so this is good information. Thank you!
Here is the link for the previous waitlist stats ( 2017-2022) for many universities, including UWM.
Nice find!
They do indicate in their narrative section that thereās a zero percent chance of getting off the waitlist at Wisconsin, but they havenāt yet updated for CDS Fall 2023. The last stat column they show (basically a percent of the incoming class admitted off the waitlist) assumes that 100% of those offered a spot off the waitlist accept their offer. I donāt think thatās correct.
They also assume, like I did, that Wisconsin had no waitlist prior to Fall 2020. That seems logical because their CDS data doesnāt report a waitlist. However, we have reports on CC of students getting accepted off the waitlist prior to that. I think UW just chose not to report those stats prior to 2020.
There were waitlists prior to 2020, UW chose not to report the numbers.
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Iām just hoping that by stating a 28.7% three-year average in their Waitlist notice (skewed from primarily all taken from last year) and giving students & families some glimmer of hope, that they donāt revert back to <1% this year, otherwise why would they mention the 28.7% average, unless they were again conservative in their EA/RD acceptances this year (presumably due to the FAFSA mess), and fully expect to offer more than <1%ā¦
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The admission person I talked to indicated that 2021 and 2022 were the unusual years. I hope thatās true.
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Welp, my son committed to another school. We were beginning to fall behind there in signing up for orientations dates and whatnot, so figured time to move forwardā¦ Heās still counting on UW, thoā¦ 
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Same, DS has committed elsewhere as housing choices are based on when you commit. If Wisconsin ends up offering, Iām not really sure what my son will do, as he seems to be embracing his current decision, but has said he wants to leave the door open to Wisconsin, and will make a decision if that opportunity ever comesā¦
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