<p>OP, this idea comes up on a regular basis, and gets debunked just as often. Here’s what a quick google search on “calculating probability of getting into at least one reach school site:collegeconfidential.com” yields, for starters:</p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/349285-conceptual-issue-admissions-probability.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/349285-conceptual-issue-admissions-probability.html</a></p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/944407-more-reaches-better.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/944407-more-reaches-better.html</a></p>
<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/861845-probability-chance-up-if-applying-more-ivies-schools.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/861845-probability-chance-up-if-applying-more-ivies-schools.html</a></p>