Unclear how ED and EA will co-exist with each other. Things can get very complicated at schools (e.g. Tulane and U.Chi) that over more than one early option. But this makes a lot of sense for UVA and, imho, is a smart read of the market.
Probably won’t affect IS admissions that much – UVA’s yield on in-state offers is already very high given the strong price/value proposition. And as everyone on CC knows, ED is all about driving up the yield. My guess is that this move is targeted at out-of-state non-legacy applicants.
Kids in that pool face meager Ivy League level admit odds. And the kids that get in through that narrow door enroll at low yield – because their ultra high credentials are getting them admitted RD to other elite schools and the cost to attend UVA OOS is basically the same as elite private (or perhaps higher after fin aid). Under the current rules, UVA EA is a popular back-up application for SCEA to HYPS or ED to other elite privates.
Right now, my sense is that the OOS pool is dominated by the legacy applicants. Either (i) kids who are hoping the legacy tip will make UVA their reach school or (ii) high stat kids who (with the benefit of the legacy tip) think that UVA will be a match/safety.
So UVA ends up rejecting a lot of HQ OOS non-legacy applicants that, with the advent of ED, they will now end up enrolling.
P.S. The tell on this is Dean Roberts saying that ED will not impact the admit standards. The easiest way for UVA to sorta make that happen is to make it a little easier for high stat OOS non-legacy to get in. Those kids would still have stats higher than the OOS legacy pool and the IS pool. So UVA enrolled class stats (and yield) will likely go up. Even if they are lowering the bar a little bit for the OOS non-legacies. End of the day, your school gets measured mostly by who you ENROLL, not who you admit.