I don’t think is is new or novel to this board, but my biggest takeaway is that the admissions process has been filled with much more uncertainty in the past two years. This is likely due in large part to 1) test optional and 2) other impacts of Covid (deferrals, higher yields, etc). Both schools and applicants are trying to address that uncertainly to minimize risk:
Schools are: 1) filling more of their classes through ED, which is the ultimate hedge against uncertainty, and 2) engaging in more yield protection by seeking more demonstrated interest (visits, essays, etc) and rejecting/deferring higher stat applicants they suspect are are applying to their school as a safety.
Applicants (and particularly those who are seeking T30 schools) on the other hand are: 1)applying to more schools in general, and especially taking a shotgun approach to their reach schools, 2) also using ED more to increase their odds of admission to a reach school.
Unfortunately, both the actions of the schools and the applicants creates a vicious cycle - the more that schools use ED to fill their classes, the more that encourages applicants to both apply ED, and, later, take the shotgun approach in the RD cycle.
From an applicant’s standpoint (I have a rising senior who’ll be applying to colleges next fall), I’m planning to hedge against uncertainty by 1) encouraging my daughter to strategically use ED (both ED1 and ED2 if necessary) to increase her chances of getting into one of her reach schools, and 2) focusing a lot more on her safeties than I would have several years ago.