Will it be easier to transfer into top schools for Spring 2021?

With COVID I know that enrollment is down across the board but will this result in a greater chance of acceptance at a top university? Also, I’m thinking that waiting until Fall 2021 to apply would drastically decrease chance at admission as by this time the virus will presumably be under control and all the students who aren’t attending this year will apply next year. So my hypothesis is that Spring 2021 will have higher acceptance rates while Fall 2021 will have lower acceptance rates due to the surplus of students. Can anyone share their thoughts on this and give their own opinion?

I think it’s highly unlikely HS Seniors will just not apply anywhere and will apply next year. They’ll apply this year and take a gap year at the school they choose.

Next year’s acceptance rates will be consist, I suspect. Schools may accept 1000 and 1000 and enroll 800 and 1200. But I don’t think 800 enrolling and 200 waiting a year will impact next year’s acceptance rates.

Top school have plenty of resources to ride this out - I doubt they’ll lower acceptance criteria and make Spring transfers easier.