I’d really like this math to be correct as my son was in the SCEA deferral group. However, the admissions podcast said that a deferral’s chances of admission were about the same as and maybe slightly better than RD applicants. The deferral letter said the chances were the same as RD. I think the Podcast said every year they see “dozens” (assuming this means a lot less than 100) of deferrals admitted RD. Assuming “dozens” means 3-5 dozen, then that’s about 36-60 deferrals admitted via RD.
I hope your math is more accurate than my interpretation, but you are right that we have tempered hopes - which is emotionally safer.
The big unknown which can make my math too optimistic is that within those 10,000 to 15,000 finalists, many may be truly exceptional students who did not SCEA Yale, but perhaps got in REA Harvard, Stanford, Princeton, MIT, etc… So while the total RD pool is weaker than the SCEA pool, the top end may be particularly strong.
The question would be whether something like 160-240 admits could plausibly be called “dozens”, and 10-15% only “maybe a little bit better” than around 4% (or whatever their normal RD acceptance rate is).
And maybe, actually, if they are also being conservative in how they describe this.
We visited, but not for an official tour (weekend). What is the dorm situation for the different years? Do upper years live “off campus”? It seemed like campus and the city were mixed together, which we liked.
Generally guaranteed frosh and sophomore years, but usually available in some form all 4 years. Details on housing here. Housing Policies | Yale Housing
Did you get an email saying an additional school is requesting documents and then Yale popped up? Again Yale was on my IDOC automatically since the beginning.
I hear a lot about admits getting phone calls from the admissions office. Is this true of every applicant? If we don’t get a phone call does that mean we’re getting rejected?
There was a week or so in early March where some applicants got phone calls from AO and told they are likely getting admitted to Yale. Maybe you mean that?
i submitted my parents’ tax returns in their original language and did not know that i had to translate them. but they haven’t asked for the translation. is that a sign that i have been rejected ?